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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $69.90EOD only
Max Pain
$80.50
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.18
4.6% from close
Price Gap
+10.60
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
64
High premium
P/C OI
0.97
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias pre-OPEX: spot below MP, dealer short gamma ($-20.9M) amplifies downside, high vol supports break below 66.72. VIX 17.87 provides tailwind but 13.2% MP distance caps conviction.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 13.2% below MP; +1 VIX 17.87.
Supports: GEX/flow alignment with downside, high vol, next 2d range low at 66.72.
Conflicts: Spot well below MP, mixed flow, no clear catalyst.
⚠️OPEX event: 2 days to expiry, max pain $80 vs spot ~$70.
📉Dealer short gamma ($-20.9M) amplifies moves; downside bias.
🔻Support 62.08 is gamma flip zone; a break could accelerate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: IV elevated (regime high) vs VIX 17.87, likely due to OPEX event and negative gamma.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending: dealer GEX $-20.9M, short gamma profile; flip near $60 based on put OI.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed: premium flow balance unclear; overall net negative gamma dominates.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below: spot ~$70 vs max pain $80 (13.2% gap), reducing pin attraction.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — OPEX in 2 days (May 15, 2026) with nearby gamma flip and concentrated puts.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$66.72$73.09
Target 66.72 support; break could accelerate to 62.
Next 1 week
$63.60$76.20
Range 63.6-76.2; downside bias toward 63.6 support.
Next 2 weeks
$62.08$77.73
Range 62.08-77.73; gamma flip at $60 is key downside target.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-05-15); $83 (2026-05-22); $79 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $66.72/$73.09; 1w $63.60/$76.20
Support: $62.08
Resistance: $77.73
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,036 (14.2% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $80 (May15), $83 (May22), $79 (May29). EM guardrails: 2d 66.72-73.09; 1w 63.60-76.20. Support: 62.08 (gamma flip). Resistance: 77.73.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-20.9M

DEX: +53.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,036 (14.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX $-20.9M, short gamma; flip ~$60 based on put OI concentration (20,036 contracts, 14.2% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV likely rich vs VIX (17.87) due to high vol regime and OPEX event; justifies hedging cost.

Term structure: Likely inverted near term due to OPEX premium; expect vol drop post-expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated given downside gamma; consider put spreads or short vol via call spreads if bearish.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$6.48M, put/call vol ratio 1.08, bearish.

Directional prints: 64 put 70 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 12.7x, heavy put buying, bearish. 63.2 call 69.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 5.8x, call buying, bullish. 64.7 call 74 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.1x, speculative call buying, bullish.

Unusual: 63 put 69.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 2572 vs OI 911, elevated put activity, bearish. 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Far OTM call, vol/OI 2.5x, speculative. 67.3 put 65 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.4x, OTM put buying, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $60 if spot breaks support, could trigger dealer hedging and accelerate selloff.
!Spot 13.2% below MP reduces pinning; but if spot rallies into OPEX, dealers may need to cover short gamma causing squeeze.
!High vol regime can produce sharp reversals; mixed flow limits directional conviction.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $66.00/$62.00 put spread
Why now: Short gamma regime, heavy put buying, spot below MP. Defined risk limits tail risk.
If spot rallies, short put caps profit; gamma flip at $60 could accelerate downside. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $66.00 put
Why now: Bearish flow, dealer short gamma, high vol supports decline.
Time decay if spot stalls; gamma flip risk if spot rallies.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put on CVNA
Buy 2026-06-12 $66.00 put
Bearish edge: short gamma, heavy put buying, spot below MP, high vol supports decline.
Why this play: Outranks spread for liquidity and unlimited downside; high vol amplifies break.
Debit: $3.08-$3.77
Max loss: $3.77
BE: $62.23
Mgmt: Stop at 77.73, target 62.23; adjust if vol spikes or spot reverses.
Aggressive traders seeking amplified downside with defined premium risk.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $66.00/$62.00 put spread
Captures downside with capped loss; dealer hedging may accelerate move.
Why this play: Defined risk limits tail exposure; lower cost for conservative bearish.
Debit: $1.21-$1.47
Max loss: $1.47
BE: $64.53
Mgmt: Manage near invalidation 77.73; exit if spot rallies or vol drops. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
Conservative bearish traders managing risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF CVNA spot breaks below 62.08 (support / gamma flip level) → THEN buy the 2026-06-12 $66.00 put (long put) for aggressive bearish exposure
IFIF CVNA spot remains below 66.72 (2-day lower guardrail) for a conservative bearish play → THEN buy the 2026-06-12 $66.00/$62.00 bear put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF CVNA spot rallies above 77.73 (key resistance / invalidation level) → THEN close all bearish positions (both long put and bear put spread)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias pre-OPEX; dealer short gamma, high vol. Enter long put on break below 62.08; enter bear put spread if spot stays below 66.72. Exit both on rally above 77.73.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.