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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $63.35EOD only
Max Pain
$69.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.61
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+5.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
CVNA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish bias persists as spot trades below max pain with dealer short gamma and negative flow. Key gamma flip at $60 is critical; break could accelerate downside.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Pre-computed 6.5 driven by GEX/flow alignment (+2) offset by spot distance from MP (-1) and elevated VIX (+0.5).
Supports: Bearish GEX (-$5.7M), negative flow, spot below MP, high vol regime.
Conflicts: Spot below MP could attract mean reversion; gamma flip at $60 support; max pain $69 may cap downside.
🔻Dealer short gamma (-$5.7M) amplifies downside if $60 support breaks.
📉Spot 8.2% below max pain $69 suggests bearish sentiment dominates.
⚠️Gamma flip ~$60 from put OI; watch for potential bounce.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime: IV elevated, likely above VIX 18.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$5.7M, trending bearish gamma, flip near $60 (put OI concentration).
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net bearish premium, elevated P/C ratio, flow aligns with dealer short gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$63.5, MP $69, 8.2% below, pin resistance above.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow and dealer short gamma support continued downside over multi-week horizon, though near-term pin resistance at $69 may slow move.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$59.73$66.96
Spot near support $59.73, resistance $66.96; bias lower unless gamma flip holds.
Next 1 week
$57.73$68.97
Range $57.73-$68.97; dealer gamma and flow favor downside.
Next 2 weeks
$59.90$66.80
Range $59.9-$66.8; structural bearish flow but pin resistance $69 may cap.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $69 (2026-05-22); $72 (2026-05-29); $73 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $59.73/$66.96; 1w $57.73/$68.97
Support: $60.00 · $59.90
Resistance: $66.80 · $69.00
Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,463 (5.3% below spot)
Structural: Support $60 (gamma flip), $59.9 (2w low); resistance $66.96 (2d high), $69 (max pain 05/22), $72 (05/29), $73 (06/05). EM guardrails: 2d $59.73-$66.96, 1w $57.73-$68.97.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-5.7M

DEX: +42.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,463 (5.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$5.7M, dealer short gamma with flip ~$60 (put OI conc. 16,463). Negative gamma amplifies directional moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 18 given High vol regime, suggesting elevated demand for options, supporting bearish put plays.

Term structure: Likely contango with event kinks around weekly expiries (05/22, 05/29, 06/05); near-term IV elevated.

Skew: Skew steep puts over calls; opportunity: buying near-term puts given bearish gamma and flow.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$18.9M, P/C vol ratio 1.28: puts dominate, bearish flow.

Directional prints: 72.1 put 58 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 9.8 (extremely high); suggests aggressive put buying for downside protection or bearish speculation. 70 put 61 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 8.5 (high); likely new bearish positions or hedging. 70.1 put 61.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.8 (high); reinforces bearish put demand.

Unusual: 72.1 put 58 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 9.8 (extreme); unusual put volume vs OI, bearish. 70 put 61 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 8.5 (high); unusual put activity. 70.1 put 61.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.8 (high); unusual put volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $60 may trigger rebound if spot holds.
!Max pain $69 could act as suction zone, slowing downside.
!Broader market weakness (SPY -0.67%) may accelerate sells but risk reversal.
!Low liquidity near support can cause whipsaws.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $63.00/$59.00 put spread
Why now: Put flow and negative GEX support bearish move; defined-risk spread limits cost and risk, suitable for multi-week thesis.
Gamma flip at $60 could cause sharp rebound; spread caps upside but still loses if spot rallies above short strike.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-05 $69.00/$74.00 call spread
Why now: Bearish sentiment and put dominance suggest limited upside; credit spread capitalizes on theta decay and resistance near $68.
If spot rallies above short strike, spread loses; gamma flip at $60 could trigger short covering rally. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Volume below 5.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $60.00 put
Why now: High put volume and open interest at 60 strike indicates strong bearish conviction; long put provides leveraged downside without margin.
Time decay if spot moves sideways; gamma flip at $60 could cause sharp reversal; premium heavy.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $63.00/$59.00 put spread
Buy $63/$59 put spread expiring June 12 to profit from downside while capping risk.
Why this play: Best defined-risk bearish play with strong put flow and negative gamma; limited loss if wrong, suitable for multi-week thesis.
Debit: $1.48-$1.81
Max loss: $1.81
BE: $61.19
Mgmt: Exit at 50% of max gain or if spot invalidates near $66.80. Reassess at gamma flip area.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure with high probability of success.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-12 $60.00 put
Buy $60 put expiring June 12 for leveraged downside; high conviction given flow.
Why this play: Leveraged bearish play with high put volume at $60 strike; direct downside exposure, but higher risk if rebound occurs.
Debit: $2.48-$3.03
Max loss: $3.03
BE: $56.97
Mgmt: Monitor closely; consider rolling if spot approaches $60 gamma flip. Cut losses if invalidation level breached.
Aggressive traders willing to accept higher premium decay for greater upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $60 gamma flip with volume → THEN buy 2026-06-12 $63/$59 put spread (cvna_put_spread_1) near entry range $1.48-$1.81
IFIF spot holds below $66.8 resistance and fails to rally → THEN buy 2026-06-12 $60 put (cvna_long_put_1) near entry range $2.48-$3.03
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot nears $60 gamma flip and shows bounce → THEN reduce bear put spread size or take partial profits; tighten stop on long put
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes above $66.8 (invalidation level) → THEN exit all bearish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bearish multi-week thesis: focus on put spread entry below $60 or long put if resistance holds. Manage risk at $60 gamma flip and exit if spot reclaims $66.8.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.