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CVNA

Carvana Co.Close $64.39EOD only

Max Pain

$69.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.01

3.1% from close

Price Gap

+4.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CVNA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

CVNA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias as dealer short gamma and long delta support upside break from spot below $69 MP. Elevated vol and trending gamma favor continued move. Confidence moderate at 7/10.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, -1 spot 6.7% below MP, +1 low VIX.

Supports: Dealer long delta, trending gamma, low VIX.
Conflicts: Spot below max pain, mixed flow, high vol.

🟢GEX/flow strongly aligned for up

🔴Spot 6.7% below MP $69 risk

🟡VIX 17 supports non-panicky vol

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical, reflecting high expected move.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma with $-3.7M GEX; flip at $60.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium, P/C not extreme.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~6.7% below $69 MP, pinning risk.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple max pain pins across weekly expiries (05-22, 05-29, 06-05) indicate event-driven setup.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$62.38$66.40

Push toward $66.40 resistance likely.

Next 1 week

$59.31$69.46

Test $69 MP, aided by dealer gamma.

Next 2 weeks

$57.39$71.39

Upside to $71.39 if break above MP.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $69 (2026-05-22); $67 (2026-05-29); $70 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 2d $62.38/$66.40; 1w $59.31/$69.46

Support: $60.00 · $57.39

Resistance: $69.00 · $71.39

Gamma flip: ~$60.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,090 (6.8% below spot)

Structural: Support: $60 (gamma flip), $57.39; Resistance: $69 (MP), $71.39.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.7M

DEX: +43.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$60 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,090 (6.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$3.7M (short gamma), DEX +43M shares (long delta). Gamma flip near $60.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich relative to VIX 16.76, implying elevated premium.

Term structure: Steep with kinks at weekly expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spreads or outright calls given bullish bias.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$8.9M; put volume ratio 1.19 dominates, but OI ratio 0.87 suggests more call open interest.

Directional prints: 168 put 87 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 548/OI 135 (4.1x); aggressive put buying, likely bought for downside. 162.7 put 84 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol 622/OI 205 (3.0x); continued put accumulation, likely bought. 68.4 put 60 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 603/OI 227 (2.7x); OTM put buying for downside hedge, likely bought.

Unusual: 50 call 620 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 485/OI 191 (2.5x); far OTM call sold, likely bearish speculation. 63.9 put 96 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 370/OI 135 (2.7x); ITM put sold, likely bearish position closing. 53.2 call 66 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 822/OI 342 (2.4x); ATM call sold near expiry, gamma play.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fall below $60 gamma flip

!Unexpected IV crush

!Macro reversal

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $65.00/$70.00 call spread Why now: Bullish bias, defined risk, cheap vol.	Upside capped; IV crush if slow move.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-12 $65.00 call Why now: Elevated vol, trending gamma favor upside.	Time decay if stall; IV contraction.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $70.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $68.00 call Why now: Near-term IV > back-month; theta positive.	Large move against short leg blows spread.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $65.00/$70.00 call spread

Buy $65/$70 call spread for leveraged upside with capped loss.

Why this play: Balanced risk/reward for bullish thesis with defined risk and cheap vol.

Debit: $1.63-$1.99

Max loss: $1.99

BE: $66.99

Mgmt: Exit at 50% gain or at invalidation $60.

Conservative bullish traders

Long Call

Buy 2026-06-12 $65.00 call

Buy $65 call to capture upside move with limited downside.

Why this play: Direct bullish exposure with unlimited upside, higher conviction.

Debit: $3.74-$4.57

Max loss: $4.57

BE: $69.57

Mgmt: Trail stop or take profit on spike.

Aggressive bullish traders

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-06-05 $70.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $68.00 call

Sell near-term call, buy back-month call for theta positive.

Why this play: Exploits IV skew and time decay; benefits from stable near-term vol.

Debit: $3.54-$4.33

Max loss: $4.33

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage gamma risk near expiration.

Theta-focused traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $60 and breaks above $69 resistance → Enter $65/$70 bull call spread (cvna_bull_call_spread_1) at mid-price ~1.81

IFSpot holds above $60 and breaks $69 with momentum → Buy $65 call (cvna_long_call_1) near mid-price ~4.15

IFSpot holds above $60 and near-term IV remains elevated vs back-month → Enter call diagonal (cvna_calendar_call_1) near mid-price ~3.93

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot falls below $60 gamma flip → Close all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias from dealer short gamma/long delta. Key levels: support $60 (gamma flip), resistance $69. Favor bull call spread for defined risk. Invalidation below $60. Monitor vol and gamma flip.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.