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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $304.99EOD only
Max Pain
$295.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.74
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-9.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
27
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-04-30 (24 days out). IV normal (31.3%), but term structure shows a kink at May expirations (31.4% vs 25.8% in April), indicating earnings premium is building. Strong pinning regime with positive GEX (+$210.3M) and bullish flow (P/C 0.60, net premium +$124.5M) supports selling premium within expected move bounds. Key risk is a gap beyond the 4.5% expected move if guidance surprises.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning)
Most important: Positive GEX (+$210.3M) and max pain clustering near $252 create a strong pinning magnet, favoring range-bound strategies.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-04-30 (24 days out); IV kink at May expirations confirms date.
📊Max pain pins at $252-$250 across near-term expirations, strong pinning magnet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (24 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$11.70 (4.5%)
  • 5/01 (25d): ±$16.38 (6.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Normal IV (31.3% avg), but kink at May expirations: 4/24 ATM 25.8% vs 5/01 ATM 31.4% — earnings premium building.

Crush estimate: ~5-6 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~25-26% (April levels).

Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C OI 0.72), but flow is call-dominated (P/C volume 0.60).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical data insufficient to compute; but consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias.

Directional bias: All 4 quarters beat EPS estimates; stock likely gaps up on beats.

Key Levels

1$255.00
2$252.50
3$250.00
4$262.50
5$265.00
6$270.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy $257.50C 4/08 buying (10,839 vol vs 508 OI, 21.3x)

Near-term upside bet, possibly hedging or directional play.

Large net premium flow at $260.00 (+$16.2M) and $265.00 (+$12.1M)

Bullish flow concentrated at strikes just above spot, supporting resistance levels.

Strategies

Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $247.50/$252.50P x $270.00/$275.00C 5/01
Credit: $2.50-$3.00
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: $2.75
BE: $250.00
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if IV >30%
Positive GEX (+$210.3M) and pinning regime favor range-bound price action; selling elevated IV at May expiration captures crush.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($247.16-$270.56) and pins near max pain.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >50% or breaks key support/resistance.
Long straddle (directional volatility)
Buy $260 straddle 5/01
Max loss: $16.38
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $243.62
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >35%
Historical 100% EPS beat rate suggests potential for larger-than-expected move; IV kink at May provides relatively cheaper entry vs post-earnings crush.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 6.3% EM (e.g., >$16.38 move)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $260 and IV crushes post-earnings
Bull call spread (directional upside)
Buy $260C / Sell $270C 5/01
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $265.00
Trigger: Enter on any dip toward $255 support
Bullish flow (net premium +$124.5M) and EPS beat history support upside; defined risk limits exposure if pinning prevails.
Outperforms: Stock breaks above $265 resistance and approaches $270
Underperforms: Stock fails to hold $255 support or stays range-bound

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 4.5% EM for 4/24, but could exceed if guidance deviates significantly (historical beats suggest upside bias).
!IV crush: May expiration IV ~31.4% could drop 5-6 pts post-earnings, hurting long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent (3.7M OI, 534K volume), tight spreads.
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% of portfolio) due to pinning risk and potential for sudden gaps.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (watch May vs April spread)
?Unusual activity in OTM puts (e.g., $240-$250) for hedging signals
?Spot reaction near $260 GEX concentration level.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.