TSLA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 massive net put premium persists; +1 spot below max pain; +1 high IV; -1 GEX now negative (pro-cyclical); -0.5 P/C volume ratio shows call interest

Watch next session: $367.50P vs $367.50C OI battle for 4/6 expiry; Spot reaction to $355-$360 call-heavy premium zone

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$432.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.71 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.72 — moderate call-leaning positioning

A significant regime shift: massive bearish premium flow continues, but volume now favors calls. The negative GEX (-$49.7M) aligns with the bearish flow, removing the prior pinning conflict. This suggests institutions are still paying for downside protection while tactical call buyers emerge, creating a volatile, pro-trend environment.

Notable Prints

TSLA 4/10 $650.00 Call

Vol: 101,412

OI: 940

Vol/OI: 107.9x

IV: 112.5%

Notional: ~$6.59B (101,412 * $650.00 * 100)

Intent: Spread leg or speculative lottery ticket

Dual read: Bought (bullish speculation) or sold (premium sale)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (112.5%) and massive notional value make a directional buy unlikely. This is almost certainly a short call leg of a complex spread (e.g., ratio spread, diagonal) or a closing transaction. It's noise for directional bias but indicates high-volatility trading in long-dated OTM options.

TSLA 4/6 $367.50 Put

Vol: 19,693

OI: 945

Vol/OI: 20.8x

IV: 30.2%

Notional: ~$724.3M

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or protective hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to open (bullish/income)

Read-through: High volume vs. OI and near-the-money strike ($367.50) suggests new bearish positioning. Given the overall negative premium flow and spot below this strike, this is likely bought puts for downside exposure or protection ahead of the 4/6 expiry. It's a key near-term level to watch.

TSLA 4/6 $360.00 Call

Vol: 26,131

OI: 585

Vol/OI: 44.7x

IV: 31.2%

Notional: ~$941.7M

Intent: Directional call buying or delta hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bullish) or sold to open (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: High volume at the near-exact spot price suggests active trading. The moderate IV and high Vol/OI ratio point to new long calls, likely as a tactical bullish bet or a hedge against a short stock position. This aligns with the call-dominant volume ratio and represents the opposing force to the dominant bearish premium flow.

TSLA 4/6 $367.50 Call

Vol: 24,062

OI: 1,188

Vol/OI: 20.2x

IV: 29.9%

Notional: ~$884.3M

Intent: Mixed flow, likely including call selling

Dual read: Sold to open (neutral/bearish) or bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Paired with the high-volume put at the same strike, this creates a high-OI strangle or straddle for 4/6 expiry. The lower IV suggests some of this flow could be short calls (premium collection), which would be a bearish/neutral overlay on top of any long put activity. This strike is a clear focal point.

TSLA 4/6 $372.50 Call

Vol: 14,430

OI: 688

Vol/OI: 21.0x

IV: 29.6%

Notional: ~$537.0M

Intent: Call selling or spread leg

Dual read: Sold to open (neutral) or bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Another high-volume, near-term call with low IV. Given its proximity to max pain levels ($372.50 for 3/30), this is likely short call flow from institutions expecting resistance or as part of defined-risk spreads (e.g., call credit spreads).

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Tactical near-term calls at $355-$367.50 (4/6-4/8), but premium flow is negative, suggesting these are smaller or spread-related.

Put additions: Persistent large premium in OTM puts ($380, $370, $700) and new near-term puts at $367.50. The $-432M net premium confirms institutions are still the net buyers of puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — now aligned. Negative GEX (-$49.7M) is pro-cyclical and supports the bearish flow thesis, meaning dealer hedging could amplify a downward move.

OI clusters: Near-term: $367.50P/C (high OI), $360C. Long-term: Extreme OTM calls ($960, $940) are legacy noise. The $400C (28.7K OI) is a notable longer-dated resistance level.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming. Net premium remains massively negative, driven by OTM put buying. The shift to negative GEX removes the pinning buffer, increasing the risk of a trending move lower.

Max pain context: Spot ($360.59) is 6.3% below the nearest max pain ($385 for 3/23). This gap supports the bearish flow, but rising max pain over future expirations ($400 by 2027) suggests longer-term expectations are not catastrophically bearish.

Signal vs Noise

~The 4/10 $650 Call (101k volume) is extreme noise — a spread leg or closing trade given its 112.5% IV and astronomical notional. Not a directional bet.

~Extreme OTM call OI ($960, $940, $5) is legacy/speculative and irrelevant for current institutional flow.

~High volume in 4/6 and 4/8 options includes significant gamma hedging and expiry-related rolls from the prior 4/1 expiry, not all fresh directional flow.

~The call-dominant volume ratio (0.71) is partly distorted by the massive $650C print and tactical near-dated buying, which is being overwhelmed by the premium spent on puts.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Bearish premium flow persists (-$432M), now reinforced by negative GEX, creating a pro-cyclical, trending regime.

⚔️A battle is forming at $367.50 for the 4/6 expiry, with high-volume puts and calls creating a volatility pinch point.

📉Institutions continue to pay a huge premium for downside protection (OTM puts), while tactical call buyers provide opposing volume but not equivalent premium.

🎯Watch $355-$360: Strong net call premium here could provide near-term support, but a break below targets the next expected move down to ~$351.

Read the Flow analysis for TSLA for 2026-04-02. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.