thetaOwl

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.26EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.60
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TSLA Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Spot fails to reclaim $370 and net premium remains heavily negative.
Invalidation: Spot breaks and holds above $385 (near-term max pain) with net premium flipping positive.
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 massive net put premium persists; +1 spot below max pain; +1 high IV; -1 GEX now negative (pro-cyclical); -0.5 P/C volume ratio shows call interest

Watch next session: $367.50P vs $367.50C OI battle for 4/6 expiry; Spot reaction to $355-$360 call-heavy premium zone

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$432.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.71 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.72 — moderate call-leaning positioning

A significant regime shift: massive bearish premium flow continues, but volume now favors calls. The negative GEX (-$49.7M) aligns with the bearish flow, removing the prior pinning conflict. This suggests institutions are still paying for downside protection while tactical call buyers emerge, creating a volatile, pro-trend environment.

Notable Prints

#1
TSLA 4/10 $650.00 Call
Vol: 101,412
OI: 940
Vol/OI: 107.9x
IV: 112.5%
Notional: ~$6.59B (101,412 * $650.00 * 100)
Intent: Spread leg or speculative lottery ticket
Dual read: Bought (bullish speculation) or sold (premium sale)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (112.5%) and massive notional value make a directional buy unlikely. This is almost certainly a short call leg of a complex spread (e.g., ratio spread, diagonal) or a closing transaction. It's noise for directional bias but indicates high-volatility trading in long-dated OTM options.

#2
TSLA 4/6 $367.50 Put
Vol: 19,693
OI: 945
Vol/OI: 20.8x
IV: 30.2%
Notional: ~$724.3M
Intent: Fresh directional put buying or protective hedge
Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to open (bullish/income)

Read-through: High volume vs. OI and near-the-money strike ($367.50) suggests new bearish positioning. Given the overall negative premium flow and spot below this strike, this is likely bought puts for downside exposure or protection ahead of the 4/6 expiry. It's a key near-term level to watch.

#3
TSLA 4/6 $360.00 Call
Vol: 26,131
OI: 585
Vol/OI: 44.7x
IV: 31.2%
Notional: ~$941.7M
Intent: Directional call buying or delta hedge
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish) or sold to open (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: High volume at the near-exact spot price suggests active trading. The moderate IV and high Vol/OI ratio point to new long calls, likely as a tactical bullish bet or a hedge against a short stock position. This aligns with the call-dominant volume ratio and represents the opposing force to the dominant bearish premium flow.

#4
TSLA 4/6 $367.50 Call
Vol: 24,062
OI: 1,188
Vol/OI: 20.2x
IV: 29.9%
Notional: ~$884.3M
Intent: Mixed flow, likely including call selling
Dual read: Sold to open (neutral/bearish) or bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Paired with the high-volume put at the same strike, this creates a high-OI strangle or straddle for 4/6 expiry. The lower IV suggests some of this flow could be short calls (premium collection), which would be a bearish/neutral overlay on top of any long put activity. This strike is a clear focal point.

#5
TSLA 4/6 $372.50 Call
Vol: 14,430
OI: 688
Vol/OI: 21.0x
IV: 29.6%
Notional: ~$537.0M
Intent: Call selling or spread leg
Dual read: Sold to open (neutral) or bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Another high-volume, near-term call with low IV. Given its proximity to max pain levels ($372.50 for 3/30), this is likely short call flow from institutions expecting resistance or as part of defined-risk spreads (e.g., call credit spreads).

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Tactical near-term calls at $355-$367.50 (4/6-4/8), but premium flow is negative, suggesting these are smaller or spread-related.

Put additions: Persistent large premium in OTM puts ($380, $370, $700) and new near-term puts at $367.50. The $-432M net premium confirms institutions are still the net buyers of puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — now aligned. Negative GEX (-$49.7M) is pro-cyclical and supports the bearish flow thesis, meaning dealer hedging could amplify a downward move.

OI clusters: Near-term: $367.50P/C (high OI), $360C. Long-term: Extreme OTM calls ($960, $940) are legacy noise. The $400C (28.7K OI) is a notable longer-dated resistance level.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming. Net premium remains massively negative, driven by OTM put buying. The shift to negative GEX removes the pinning buffer, increasing the risk of a trending move lower.

Max pain context: Spot ($360.59) is 6.3% below the nearest max pain ($385 for 3/23). This gap supports the bearish flow, but rising max pain over future expirations ($400 by 2027) suggests longer-term expectations are not catastrophically bearish.

Signal vs Noise

~The 4/10 $650 Call (101k volume) is extreme noise — a spread leg or closing trade given its 112.5% IV and astronomical notional. Not a directional bet.
~Extreme OTM call OI ($960, $940, $5) is legacy/speculative and irrelevant for current institutional flow.
~High volume in 4/6 and 4/8 options includes significant gamma hedging and expiry-related rolls from the prior 4/1 expiry, not all fresh directional flow.
~The call-dominant volume ratio (0.71) is partly distorted by the massive $650C print and tactical near-dated buying, which is being overwhelmed by the premium spent on puts.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Bearish premium flow persists (-$432M), now reinforced by negative GEX, creating a pro-cyclical, trending regime.
⚔️A battle is forming at $367.50 for the 4/6 expiry, with high-volume puts and calls creating a volatility pinch point.
📉Institutions continue to pay a huge premium for downside protection (OTM puts), while tactical call buyers provide opposing volume but not equivalent premium.
🎯Watch $355-$360: Strong net call premium here could provide near-term support, but a break below targets the next expected move down to ~$351.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.