TSLA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 massive net put premium; +1 spot below max pain; +1 high IV; -0.5 mixed volume ratio; -0.5 positive GEX pinning

Watch next session: $375-$385 put OI buildup for 4/1 expiry; Spot reaction to $370 level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$859.5M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.99 — perfectly balanced volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.70 — call-leaning positioning

Massive, concentrated bearish premium flow dominated by deep OTM puts, overwhelming balanced near-term volume. The market is paying a huge premium for long-dated downside protection while spot trades below max pain in a high-volatility regime.

Notable Prints

TSLA 4/1 $377.50 Put

Vol: 117,521

OI: 776

Vol/OI: 151.4x

IV: 8.8%

Notional: ~$44.4M (117,521 * $377.50 * 100)

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or aggressive short hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to open (bullish/income)

Read-through: Extremely high volume vs. OI suggests new positioning. The 8.8% IV is low, indicating these were likely bought, not sold. This is a bearish bet just above spot.

TSLA 4/1 $380.00 Put

Vol: 131,752

OI: 1,356

Vol/OI: 97.2x

IV: 4.4%

Notional: ~$49.7M

Intent: Fresh directional put buying

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to open (bullish/income)

Read-through: Even lower IV (4.4%) strongly suggests these puts were purchased, not sold for premium. Massive new bearish flow targeting a move below $380 by expiry.

TSLA 4/1 $375.00 Put

Vol: 116,261

OI: 1,430

Vol/OI: 81.3x

IV: 13.7%

Notional: ~$43.6M

Intent: Fresh directional put buying

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to open (bullish/income)

Read-through: Another massive, new put position. The cluster of high-volume puts at $375, $377.50, and $380 creates a concentrated bearish wall for the 4/1 expiry, targeting a break below $375.

TSLA 4/1 $382.50 Call

Vol: 121,016

OI: 2,602

Vol/OI: 46.5x

IV: 4.0%

Notional: ~$46.3M

Intent: Call selling (covered or naked) or part of a spread

Dual read: Sold to open (neutral/bearish) or bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Extremely low IV (4.0%) is the hallmark of a short call. This is likely premium collection against a position or a bearish bet that spot stays below $382.50. It offsets some of the massive put premium but is structurally bearish/neutral.

TSLA 4/1 $380.00 Call

Vol: 170,816

OI: 6,419

Vol/OI: 26.6x

IV: 7.6%

Notional: ~$64.9M

Intent: Mixed flow, likely including call selling and closing

Dual read: Sold to open (neutral) or bought to close (bull unwind)

Read-through: High volume but lower IV suggests significant short call activity here as well, reinforcing the $380 area as a resistance zone for the near term.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term. Long-dated OI is in $400+ calls, but flow is not supporting new buys.

Put additions: Massive new puts at $375-$385 for 4/1 expiry. Even larger bearish premium in OTM strikes ($500, $505, $525 puts).

GEX/DEX consistency: No — conflicting signals. Positive GEX (+$47.6M) suggests pinning/mean reversion, but massive negative net premium flow is aggressively bearish.

OI clusters: Near-term: $380 Call (6.4K OI), $375 Put (1.4K OI). Long-term: Extreme OTM calls ($680, $960) are likely legacy/speculative, not relevant for current flow.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming. The -$859.5M net premium, driven by huge OTM put buys ($500-$700 strikes), is a clear institutional hedge against a major downside move.

Max pain context: Spot ($371.75) is below near-term max pain ($385 for 3/23, $380 for 3/25-27). This supports the bearish flow thesis, as pinning forces would pull price up toward pain, not down.

Signal vs Noise

~Extreme OTM call OI ($680, $960) is noise — legacy positions or lottery tickets, not indicative of current institutional flow.

~High volume in 4/1 options is largely expiry-related positioning and gamma hedging, not all directional.

~The perfectly balanced P/C Volume Ratio (0.99) masks the stark directional signal from the net premium, which is where the real money is moving.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Massive bearish premium flow (-$859.5M) conflicts with positive GEX pinning, creating a high-volatility standoff.

🎯Institutions are heavily buying near-term ($375-$385) and long-dated OTM puts, signaling strong downside protection or outright bearish bets.

📌Spot below max pain supports the bearish flow, but positive GEX suggests any breakdown may be contested by dealer hedging.

📅Watch 4/1 expiry: High OI buildup at $380C and $375P sets up a decisive battle for that range.

Read the Flow analysis for TSLA for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.