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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $742.72EOD only

Max Pain

$734.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.93

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-8.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.45

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SPY pinned at $739 max pain with low vol and positive GEX. Expect mean reversion within 2d range, drift toward resistance $758.97 over 1-2 weeks. Confidence 9/10 due to aligned factors.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX pinning +1 spot near MP +1 VIX 17 = 9.

Supports: Positive GEX, low VIX, spot at max pain, tight range boundaries.
Conflicts: Gamma flip risk ~$530, mixed flow.

📌SPY pinned at $739 max pain, positive GEX.

⚡Gamma flip risk at ~$530 (28.6% below spot).

📊Low vol environment, VIX 16.76.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV low vs typical, VIX 16.76 supports calm.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX +946.6M, pinning near $739 max pain.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium, no strong directional skew.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at max pain $739, pinning expected.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pinning and low vol near expiry suggest short-term event behavior.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$737.79$747.65

Pinned to $739, range $737.79-$747.65.

Next 1 week

$734.99$750.45

Support $734.99, resistance $750.45.

Next 2 weeks

$726.46$758.97

Support $726.46, resistance $758.97.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $739 (2026-05-21); $734 (2026-05-22); $738 (2026-05-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $737.79/$747.65; 1w $734.99/$750.45

Support: $739.00 · $726.46

Resistance: $758.97

Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,216 (28.6% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $739 (5/21), $734 (5/22), $738 (5/26). EM guardrails: 2d $737.79/$747.65, 1w $734.99/$750.45. Support $739, $726.46; resistance $758.97. Gamma flip ~$530.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+946.6M

DEX: +289.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$530 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,216 (28.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +946.6M, gamma flip ~$530 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV cheap relative to VIX 16.76, consistent with low vol.

Term structure: Likely contango, near-term vols suppressed by pinning.

Skew: Put skew elevated, but pinning reduces demand; no clear vol opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $1.52B positive; call volume 53% dominates, put OI 2.45x calls indicates existing put positioning but aggressive call buying.

Directional prints: 2.8 call 743 OTM 2026-05-21 — Vol 598k vs OI 8.3k (71.8x); aggressive call buying, bullish bet on small upside. 2.6 call 744 OTM 2026-05-21 — Vol 529k vs OI 5.4k (97.8x); heavy call buying, likely bullish directional. 4.4 call 742 ITM 2026-05-21 — Vol 489k vs OI 6.5k (75.5x); large call accumulation, bullish sentiment.

Unusual: 1.6 put 742 OTM 2026-05-21 — Vol/OI 232.8x; extreme put buying at deep OTM; likely hedging or speculative bearish. 0 put 743 ITM 2026-05-21 — Vol/OI 186.2x; heavy put volume with near-zero IV; probably sold or hedged. 10.9 call 739 ITM 2026-05-21 — Vol/OI 156.7x; high IV call buying; directional bet on upward move.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$530 would reverse dealer positioning.

!Max pain pin may break if large order flow.

!Low vol can spike on surprise.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $740.00/$750.00 call spread Why now: Positive flow, low vol, max pin at 739, dealer GEX supports upside.	Capped at 750; pin break could reverse direction. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2025-05-30 $740.00 missing; used 2026-05-29 $740.00.; short_call: resolved contract 2025-05-30 $750.00 missing; used 2026-05-29 $750.00.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $735.00/$733.00 put spread Why now: Under pinned at 739, low vol favors credit sale, defined risk.	Break below 733 breaches short put. Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2025-05-30 $735.00 missing; used 2026-05-29 $735.00.; long_put: resolved contract 2025-05-30 $733.00 missing; used 2026-05-29 $733.00.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $745.00 call Why now: Unusual call buying, positive net premium, tech support.	Time decay if move delayed; max loss premium. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2025-05-30 $745.00 missing; used 2026-05-29 $745.00.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread for Drift

Buy 2026-05-29 $740.00/$750.00 call spread

Capture 1-2 week drift with limited risk, leveraging max pin and call flow.

Why this play: Best aligns with bullish drift to $759, low vol and positive GEX support upside, defined risk and cheap premium.

Debit: $4.65-$5.69

Max loss: $5.69

BE: $745.69

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or target $758; stop loss if below $739.

Traders wanting high-probability bullish exposure with defined risk.

Long Call for Upside

Buy 2026-05-29 $745.00 call

Unlimited upside play on continued call buying and drift toward resistance.

Why this play: Direct bullish bet on unusual call buying and tech support, but requires larger move and higher risk.

Debit: $4.46-$5.45

Max loss: $5.45

BE: $750.45

Mgmt: Set stop at $720 or 20% loss; take profit at $760.

Aggressive traders expecting breakout above $758.

Put Credit Spread for Pin

Sell 2026-05-29 $735.00/$733.00 put spread

Sell puts under max pain to collect premium with tight risk.

Why this play: Defensive play on max pin support, but low premium and limited profit.

Credit: $0.38-$0.47

Max loss: $1.53

BE: $734.53

Mgmt: Let expire if above $735; close at 50% max profit.

Neutral-to-bullish traders seeking income with low volatility.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSPY holds above $739 support with bullish momentum → Buy 2026-05-29 $740/$750 call spread near $4.65-$5.69

IFSPY trades near $739 max pain with low volatility → Sell 2026-05-29 $735/$733 put spread near $0.38-$0.47

Exit Triggers

EXITSPY reaches $758.97 resistance or target achieved → Close bull call spread at 50% max gain or full profit

EXITSPY breaks below $739 support → Close put credit spread and consider stop loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish drift to $759 expected in 1-2 weeks. Use bull call spread for defined risk, put credit spread for income near max pain. Exit on resistance or support breakdown.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.