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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $738.18EOD only
Max Pain
$735.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.62
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-3.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
2.57
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
SPY Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SPY has strong dealer gamma (+$1.4B) pinning near $735 max pain, supporting a range-bound upward bias. Normal vol and mixed flow limit conviction but support levels are robust. Confidence base 9/10 reflects GEX/flow alignment and spot-MP proximity.

Confidence:
9 / 10
GEX/flow alignment +2, positive GEX pinning +1, spot 1% from MP +1, VIX 17.87 +1.
Supports: Positive dealer gamma, pinning near max pain, moderate VIX, strong support at $735.
Conflicts: Mixed flow lacks clear directional bets; normal vol caps explosive moves.
📈Positive GEX ($1.4B) supports bullish dealer hedging.
🎯Spot at $735 max pain (5/13-5/15) intensifies pinning.
🔄Mixed flow shows no dominant directional leaning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal - IV near VIX 17.87, typical range.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning - $1.4B positive GEX, flip at $530 (28.6% below spot) via put OI concentration.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed - no net premium dominance, put/call flow balanced.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At - SPY near $735 max pain, supporting pinning into expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain concentrations (5/13,5/14,5/15) create near-term gamma pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$738.38$746.24
Gamma pinning at $735; range $738-$746.
Next 1 week
$734.16$750.45
Support $734, resistance $750; positive GEX.
Next 2 weeks
$724.21$760.41
Wider range $724-$760; GEX persists but drift possible.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $735 (2026-05-13); $735 (2026-05-14); $706 (2026-05-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $738.38/$746.24; 1w $734.16/$750.45
Support: $735.00 · $724.21
Resistance: $760.41
Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,223 (28.6% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $735 (5/13-5/15). EM guardrails: 2d $738.38/$746.24, 1w $734.16/$750.45. Support: $735, $724. Resistance: $760. Gamma flip ~$530.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.4B

DEX: +331.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$530 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,223 (28.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.4B, DEX +331.5M shares, gamma flip ~$530 (215k put OI).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SPY IV in line with VIX 17.87, normal regime no premium.

Term structure: Contango expected; no event kinks near-term.

Skew: Skew neutral; no actionable vol opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $1.66B premium positive but put/call vol ratio 1.26 and OI ratio 2.54 show heavy put activity, mostly long-dated.

Directional prints: 0 put 743 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 1477; likely bought as downside bet; bearish. 2.3 call 744 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 104; likely bought as cheap upside; bullish. 59.5 call 600 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 123; deep ITM high IV; likely bought as synthetic long; bullish.

Unusual: 0 put 743 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 1477 extreme volume; likely bought; bearish. 0.9 put 742 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 419; likely bought; bearish. 59.5 call 600 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 123; deep ITM high IV; likely bought; bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $735 could trigger dealer gamma unwind.
!Macro volatility spike reversing pinned conditions.
!Flow shift to heavy puts would undermine support.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-29 $733.00/$718.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer gamma pinning and net positive premium flow favor bullish premium sale.
Break below 735 triggers gamma unwind
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-29 $755.00/$765.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer gamma and flow support gradual upside, low vol favors debit spread.
Failure to rally near 740
Iron condorModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-05-29 $733.00/$718.00 put wing and $755.00/$765.00 call wing
Why now: Low vol and dealer pinning near max pain support neutral premium collection.
Breakout beyond 735-745 range

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-05-29 $755.00/$765.00 call spread
Upside play with defined risk.
Why this play: Aligns with slight bullish bias and dealer gamma pinning; low vol favors debit spread.
Debit: $2.26-$2.77
Max loss: $2.77
BE: $757.77
Mgmt: Exit if SPY breaks below $735.
Neutral-to-bullish traders.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-05-29 $733.00/$718.00 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium.
Why this play: Premium sale benefits from pinned price near $735 support.
Credit: $2.43-$2.97
Max loss: $12.03
BE: $730.03
Mgmt: Monitor gamma; roll if $735 tested.
Premium collectors in steady market.
#3
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $733.00/$718.00 put wing and $755.00/$765.00 call wing
Collect premium from defined range.
Why this play: Neutral premium collection but less aligned with upside bias.
Credit: $4.69-$5.74
Max loss: $9.26
BE: 727.26 / 760.74
Mgmt: Adjust wings if vol increases.
Range-bound market traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF SPY holds above $735 support and trades near $738-$740 → THEN enter bull call spread (buy $755/$765 call spread) for $2.77 debit or better, targeting $760 resistance.
IFIF SPY remains above $735 and within $735-$745 range → THEN sell put credit spread ($733/$718) for $2.97 credit or better, collecting premium with defined risk.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF SPY breaks below $735 → THEN close bull call and put credit spreads to limit losses; consider reversal.

Tactical Summary

SPY pinned near $735 max pain with strong dealer gamma (+$1.4B) supporting range-bound upside bias. Key support $735, resistance $760. Top ranked play: bull call spread (slight bullish) followed by put credit spread (premium collection). Risk: break below $735 triggers gamma unwind.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.