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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $756.48EOD only

Max Pain

$750.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.32

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-6.48

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

2.63

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet to the immediate GEX cluster around $685–$687; Confidence: 9.0/10 (pre-computed). Strongest supports: large positive GEX +$2.3B concentrated at $685/$686 (pinning), net premium inflow +$1.8B with heavy call premium at $680–$684, and SPY trading above multi-expiry max pain (~$677) which creates mild upside bias; conflict: low IV (Avg IV 17.7%, VIX 19.1) limits premium for sellers and means gamma pinning can unwind quickly on a catalyst.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 9.0/10 per pre-compute (GEX +$2.3B; net premium +$1.8B; spot 1.3% above MP); no additional catalysts identified to override.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$763.9M at $685 and +$474.6M at $686; net call premium concentrated $680–$684; MP cluster ~ $677 across expirations.
Conflicts: Low IV / thin premium (Avg IV 17.7%, short-dated ATM IV as low as 8.7%–15%), P/C OI ratio 2.25 suggests structural put demand but immediate flow is calling the pin higher.

📌GEX pinning: +$763.9M at $685 and +$474.6M at $686 (both within 0.2% of spot) acting as a short-term magnet

📈Call-heavy premium: $680 call net premium $341M; $682/$681 also huge — short-term skew favors upside prints

⚠️IV is low (Avg IV 17.7%, VIX 19.12) — selling premium is possible but credit is limited and gap risk remains

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Vol: Low — ATM term IV is low (Avg IV 17.7%, 17–16% across 17–46d) which compresses seller edge per dollar collected.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — concentrated positive GEX near spot (~+$763.9M at $685, +$474.6M at $686) creates a magnet and dealer short-delta hedging that resists moves away from $685–$687.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — net premium +$1.8B with heavy call-side buys at $680–$684 but P/C OI ratio 2.25 and P/C vol 1.45 show longer-dated put demand; short-term flow is call-biased, structural OI is put-heavy below $650.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: Spot $686.10 vs MP ~ $677 — this keeps upside pressure toward the GEX cluster while MP is flat across expirations, supporting mean-reversion into the pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX pin and max pain are stable across expirations (MP ~ $677 across multi expiries) and GEX concentrations persist at near-term strikes; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies tactical.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$682.61$689.59

Holding above $682.61 keeps dealers short-delta and pin intact; sustained move below $682.61 opens the $675 weekly band.

Next 1 week

$675.18$697.01

Close above $690 breaks small call walls (OI at $690) and lets dealers reduce hedges; failure under $675 weakens the pin.

Next 2 weeks

$667.51$704.69

Breaching $704.69 requires significant IV pick-up or large institutional buy flow; breach below $667.51 would remove dealer pinning and accelerate downside toward structural put floor.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $677 (2026-04-13); $674 (2026-04-14); $675 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $682.61/$689.59; 1w $675.18/$697.01

Support: $682.61 · $677.00 · $675.00

Resistance: $690.00 · $697.00 · $704.69

Gamma flip: ~$535.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 204,067 (22.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $495–$650 creates long-term support below $650; large OI at $650 and $535 are distant shock absorbers but irrelevant to near-term pinning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+2.3B

DEX: +274.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$535 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 204,067 (22.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-ATM: heavy positive gamma concentration at $685 (+$763.9M) and $686 (+$474.6M) — dealers are long gamma/short delta around spot and will buy dips and sell rallies within the pin band; if spot drops ~2% (~$672), dealers flip to less pinning behavior and hedges reduce liquidity; if spot rises ~2% (~$700), dealers can hedge by selling into strength but positive GEX reduces acceleration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 17.7% vs VIX 19.12 — SPY IV slightly cheap to VIX but absolute IV is low; short premium available but per-contract credit is limited.

Term structure: Flat-to-sloping: near 1–2d ATM IVs extremely low (1.5%–11%) with 17–46d ATMs ~15.3%–15.5%; pick a 30–45 DTE sweet spot where IV normalizes (~15.3%–15.6%).

Skew: Notable skew: short-dated puts show outsized OI at low strikes but near-term call IV is depressed; mispriced opportunity: sell 30–46d call-heavy structures around $685 where dealer pinning raises probability of expiry near strikes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $1.8B net premium inflow (call-biased in top flow strikes: $680 net +$341M).

Directional prints: 9.2 put 684 OTM 2026-04-14 — SPY260414P00684000 PUT vol 45,410 vs OI 133 (341x) — could be buy-to-open protective activity or sale-to-open algo; given heavy call flow, more consistent with cheap hedging (buy puts). 4.6 put 683 OTM 2026-04-13 — SPY260413P00683000 PUT vol 288,701 vs OI 846 (341x) — same-day defensive flows; likely buys to hedge short exposures or systematic delta buys.

Unusual: 3.4 put 684 OTM 2026-04-13 — High-volume same-day puts (Vol 156,152, OI 624) — large hedge prints showing buy pressure in front of expiries.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma unwind if pin breaks below $682.61 (2d EM lower) — quick dealer de-risking can accelerate sell-off.

!End-of-week expiries and MP clustering around $675–$677 create squeeze risk into Friday; pegged pins may roll or be cratered by concentrated order flow.

!Low IV means selling premium generates less credit and larger relative gap risk on macro shocks (VIX jump >25).

!Large structural put OI below $650 and at $535 creates long-tail support but also asymmetry if a broad market selloff re-prices puts aggressively.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SPY shares at market	Gamma pin limits upside, carries market risk; capital intensive.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — dealers are short-delta hedged around pin	Against heavy dealer buying on dips; high execution risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy SPY and sell 30–45d 695 call (sell higher-IV leg)	Limited upside if rally >695; low premium collected due to low IV.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30–45d $675/$670 put spread (sell $675 short leg maps to MP/EM guardrail)	Break below $670 opens EM downside; max loss limited to strike width.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 30–45d $690 call	Expensive given low IV and limited theta; needs >$700 move to meaningfully profit.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 30–45d $670/$660 bear put spread	Trend trade vs pin; limited edge while GEX is positive.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30–45d $665/$655 put spread and $695/$705 call spread (wings mapped to EM and call walls)	VIX spike or pin break moves wings; credit limited but defined risk.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate	Sell near-term 4–11d call (higher IV leg) vs buy 30–45d call at same strike — sell 4–11d 685 call, buy 30–45d 685 call (sell higher-IV leg)	Need stable spot into short expiry; theta sale but roll risk if pin moves.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 6–12mo LEAP call (e.g., 2027-01-15 670) and sell 30–45d calls 690–695 against position	Capital committed; benefits from low carry and pin stability; roll risk if market rallies past short calls.

Top Plays

30–45d Put Spread (defined-risk short premium)

Sell $675/$670 put spread 2026-05-15

Takes advantage of stable multi-expiry MP at $677 and heavy GEX pin at $685–$686; spread sits at MP guardrail so probability of expiring worthless is elevated while capping downside.

Credit: $0.40-$0.70

Max loss: $4.60

BE: $674.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut at 1.5x width filled or if spot < $672 for 2 sessions.

Defined-risk premium sellers who accept margin and want multi-week exposure.

30–45d Iron Condor (collect call-heavy premium)

Sell $665/$655 put spread and $695/$705 call spread 2026-05-15

Collects credit around the pin with wings outside 1-week EM; favorable because GEX is positive and IV is low but actionable with defined risk.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: 9.10

BE: $ (lower) 664.10 / (upper) 696.40

Mgmt: Close at 50–65% max-profit or if spot breaches $672 (lower) or $697 (upper) for 2 consecutive 30-min bars.

Accounts wanting pure short-premium with defined risk and 30–45d horizon.

Tactical Weekly Diagonal (sell short-dated call into pin)

Sell 2026-04-20 685 call, buy 2026-05-15 685 call (sell higher-IV leg)

Exploits short-dated IV bump vs 30–45d (sell higher-IV near-term call, buy longer-dated) while staying at the dealer pin where time-decay favors seller.

Credit: $0.25-$0.55

Max loss: Unlimited (naked short calls) unless paired with long leg; here risk is net-debit/limited by purchased long.

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take 50% profit on sold leg decay; roll short leg up/roll out if spot > $690 or IV collapses.

Traders seeking weekly income with a multi-week hedge; tactical overlay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades down to $682.61 and holds 30 minutes → Sell $675/$670 2026-05-15 put spread

IFIf spot pins at $685–$686 with call prints continuing (call net premium > $100M over 30m) → Sell weekly 2026-04-20 685 call and buy 2026-05-15 685 call (weekly diagonal)

IFIf IV 30–45d ATM rises to ≥16.5% → Sell 30–45d iron condor $665/$655 put x $695/$705 call (collect wider credit)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $697.00 for two 30-min bars → Buy to close short call side of iron condor and re-establish at higher strikes (roll up 10–15 points)

ADJIf spot < $672.00 and VIX >22 → Buy to close all short premium and convert put spreads to longer-dated protection (buy lower put W)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf a put spread reaches 60–70% of max profit → Close the trade and redeploy premium elsewhere

EXITIf VIX >25 and spot < $675.18 (1-week EM lower) → Exit all short premium and switch to protective long puts

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning around $685–$686 with multi-week mean-revert bias; invalidation below $682.61 (2d EM lower) which would loosen the pin and favor directional downside. Regime favors defined short-premium 30–45d plays (put spreads, iron condors) and tactical weekly diagonals — top plays: 30–45d $675/$670 put spread (best for defined-risk sellers), 30–45d iron condor ($665/$655 x $695/$705) for broader premium collection, and weekly diagonal sell 4/20 685 vs buy 5/15 685 for tactical income.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.