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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $741.25EOD only

Max Pain

$736.00

Next expiry May 21, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.88

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-5.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.47

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning at $735-$736. Low vol, strong dealer gamma support, and spot near max pain favor mean-reversion upside while protecting downside. Multi-week drift higher within range likely.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 pinning; +1 spot near MP; +1 VIX 17. Total 9/10.

Supports: Low vol, strong dealer gamma (+467M), spot at MP, mixed flow suggests accumulation.
Conflicts: Mixed flow lacks clear direction, gamma flip far below at 530.

📌Max Pain $735-$736 acts as magnet for expiry pinning.

🛡️Dealer GEX +$467M creates sticky gamma support near spot.

🌊Low vol environment (VIX 17) reduces tail risk, favors drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Vol classified as Low. VIX=17 below typical, SPY implied vol tracking similarly low. Event risk minimal near expiry.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma is Pinning. GEX +$467M concentrated near $735-$736, with strong dealer hedging that resists large moves.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow Mixed – no clear net premium direction. P/C ratios balanced, no aggressive buying or selling bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot At MP. SPY within 0.9% of max pain ($735), increasing pinning probability for May expiry.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry (May 20-22) with max pain pinning and low vol. Thesis relies on expiry mechanics, not structural trend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$735.37$747.13

Pinning near $735-$736; range $735.37-$747.13 bias upside within.

Next 1 week

$731.51$750.99

Post-expiry drift; range $731.51-$750.99, support at $735.

Next 2 weeks

$723.33$759.17

Broader range $723.33-$759.17; low vol suggests mean reversion.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $735 (2026-05-20); $736 (2026-05-21); $732 (2026-05-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $735.37/$747.13; 1w $731.51/$750.99

Support: $735.00 · $723.33

Resistance: $759.17

Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,234 (28.5% below spot)

Structural: Support: $735 (max pain), $723.33 (2w low). Resistance: $747.13 (2d high), $759.17 (2w high). Gamma flip ~$530 far away.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+467.7M

DEX: +295.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$530 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,234 (28.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX +$467M, DEX +295M shares. Strong gamma positive near spot, causing pinning. Flip risk only if spot drops ~28% to $530.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SPY IV likely inline with VIX given low vol regime. No clear rich/cheap mispricing.

Term structure: Flat to slightly contango as expiry nears. Little term premium due to low event risk.

Skew: Skew flat; no skew opportunity. Vol is cheap overall, but low vol makes long gamma unattractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$1.27B, call volume dominant (P/C 0.90) despite put-heavy OI (2.47).

Directional prints: 9.6 put 739 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 137x, massive put buying at OTM 739; bearish speculation or hedge, likely bought. 7.8 call 741 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 78x, heavy call buying OTM 741; bullish bet, possibly bought for upside.

Unusual: 9.6 put 739 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 242k vs OI 1.8k (137x), extreme OTM put activity; likely bought as tail hedge or bearish bet. 9.5 put 738 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 219k vs OI 1.9k (118x), cluster of high vol puts; consistent with downside speculation. 7.8 call 741 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol 373k vs OI 4.8k (78x), large OTM call volume; directional bullish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected macro shock (e.g., Fed surprise) could spike vol and break pinning.

!Gamma flip at 530 is distant but shows extreme tail risk if realized.

!Post-expiry dealer gamma removal may increase intraday volatility.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-05 $740.00/$760.00 call spread Why now: Buy call spread for upside with defined risk.	Capped upside if spot stays below short strike.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $734.00/$733.00 put spread Why now: Sell put spread to collect premium near pinning.	If spot falls below short put, losses up to width.

Top Plays

Pinning Put Credit

Sell 2026-06-05 $734.00/$733.00 put spread

Sell 734/733 put spread to collect premium near max pain.

Why this play: Directly profits from pinning at 735-736 with low volatility.

Credit: $0.25-$0.31

Max loss: $0.69

BE: $733.69

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or at expiration if spot remains below 736.

Income-oriented traders expecting range-bound drift.

Upside Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $740.00/$760.00 call spread

Buy 740/760 call spread to express upside view.

Why this play: Captures drift higher with defined risk, bullish bias.

Debit: $7.48-$9.14

Max loss: $9.14

BE: $749.14

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max gain; exit if spot breaks below 735 invalidation.

Traders favoring directional upside with limited loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SPY holds above $735 and trades in $735-$740 range → THEN enter bull call spread: buy 740/760 call spread

IFIF SPY stays near $735-$736 with low vol → THEN sell 734/733 put spread for premium

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF put credit spread reaches 50% max gain → THEN close put spread for profit

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SPY breaks below $735 → THEN exit both positions; invalidates both plays

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with pinning at $735-$736. Support $735 max pain, resistance $759.17. Favor defined-risk spreads: sell 734/733 put for income, buy 740/760 call for upside. Invalidation below $735.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.