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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $742.31EOD only
Max Pain
$735.00
Next expiry May 14, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.93
0.5% from close
Price Gap
-7.31
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
43
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
2.54
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
SPY Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SPY above max pain ($739) with +$1.7B GEX pinning and +341.8M dealer long exposure. Normal vol and mixed flow support bullish drift toward 765 resistance, near-term dip-buying bias. Confidence high at 9/10 due to strong dealer alignment.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive +0.5 spot proximity to MP +1 low VIX = 9.5, rounded to 9.
Supports: Positive GEX ($1.7B), positive DEX (+341.8M), spot above max pain (739), normal vol, VIX 17.26.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at 765, gamma flip at 530 (far below).
🟢Positive GEX ($1.7B) and DEX (+341.8M) pin near 739.
🟡Mixed flow suggests no aggressive chase higher.
🟢Spot 1.2% above max pain, bullish lean.
🔴Resistance at 765 may cap near-term upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV normal vs typical range; VIX 17.26 supports low vol regime.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive $1.7B GEX, pinning near 739 MP.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; put/call ratio neutral, not aggressively bullish.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot at ~748, 1.2% above max pain 739, bullish positioning.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Positive gamma and dealer long exposure suggest prolonged support; mixed flow limits breakout urgency.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$744.15$752.18
Pinning at 739, resistance 752.18.
Next 1 week
$740.53$755.81
Support 740.53, resistance 755.81.
Next 2 weeks
$731.34$765.00
Support 731.34, resistance 765; drift but may stall at 765.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $739 (2026-05-14); $708 (2026-05-15); $736 (2026-05-18)
EM guardrails: 2d $744.15/$752.18; 1w $740.53/$755.81
Support: $739.00 · $731.34
Resistance: $765.00
Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,097 (29.2% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $739 (6/14), $708 (6/15), $736 (6/18). EM guardrails: 2d $744.15/$752.18; 1w $740.53/$755.81. Support: 739, 731.34. Resistance: 765. Gamma flip ~$530 (put OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.7B

DEX: +341.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$530 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,097 (29.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net long gamma at $+1.7B, net long delta at +341.8M shares. Gamma flip ~$530 (far below), no flip risk near current levels.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Tick IV aligns with VIX at 17.26; normal vol regime implies no premium over VIX.

Term structure: Term structure likely flat to slightly contango given normal vol and no near-term events.

Skew: Skew neutral; no pronounced put/call skew. Opportunity: sell put spreads at support 739 if bullish.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net +$1.1B call-dominated but put/call vol 1.12 & massive put buying; mixed bias, cautious bearish leaning.

Directional prints: 1.5 call 749 OTM 2026-05-14 — 749C vol 746k vs OI 6k, vol/oi 125. Likely speculative upside; low premium suggests small bets. Bullish opening. 2.3 put 747 OTM 2026-05-14 — 747P vol 466k, OI 376, vol/oi 1238. Unprecedented new put buying; bearish opening or hedge. 39.4 put 530 OTM 2026-07-17 — 5/14 530P vol 200k, OI 1.2k, vol/oi 170. Long-dated deep OTM put buying; bearish hedge.

Unusual: 2.3 put 747 OTM 2026-05-14 — Vol 466k, OI 376, vol/oi 1238. Massive new put buying, extreme ratio. 1.3 put 749 ITM 2026-05-14 — Vol 241k, OI 370, vol/oi 652. Notable new put buying just below spot. 3.4 put 746 OTM 2026-05-14 — Vol 414k, OI 717, vol/oi 577. Heavy put buying near the money.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below 739 max pain
!Shift to negative gamma
!Spike in VIX
!Unexpected macro event

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-06-18 $750.00/$760.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer gamma and max pain support upward bias; 750/758 spread limits cost.
Capped upside if SPY stalls below 758. Substitutions: short_call: resolved contract 2026-06-18 $758.00 missing; used 2026-06-18 $760.00.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-05 $740.00/$739.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer long exposure and positive gamma at 739; high prob of holding above.
Loss capped if SPY breaks below 739.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread 750/760
Buy 2026-06-18 $750.00/$760.00 call spread
Buy 750/760 call spread for June 18 expiry, cost ~$5.00, max profit $4.45, max loss $5.55. Benefits from bullish drift to 765 resistance.
Why this play: Direct upside exposure with limited risk, aligned with dealer gamma and max pain support.
Debit: $4.54-$5.55
Max loss: $5.55
BE: $755.55
Mgmt: Exit if SPY breaks below 739 invalidation; consider taking profit near 760.
Aggressive bulls seeking leveraged upside with defined risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread 740/739
Sell 2026-06-05 $740.00/$739.00 put spread
Sell June 5 740/739 put spread for ~$0.30 credit, max gain $0.31, max loss $0.69. Profits if SPY stays above 739.
Why this play: High probability play with positive gamma support at 739; limited risk, benefits from time decay.
Credit: $0.26-$0.31
Max loss: $0.69
BE: $739.69
Mgmt: Close if SPY drops near 739; roll if needed.
Cautious bulls or income seekers wanting high win rate.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF SPY holds above 739 support → THEN buy June 18 750/760 call spread for ~$5.00
IFIF SPY stays above 740 → THEN sell June 5 740/739 put spread for ~$0.30 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF SPY breaks below 739 → THEN close bull call spread
EXITIF SPY drops near 739 → THEN buy back put spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish drift toward 765 resistance, supported by dealer gamma at 739 max pain. Key risk: break below 739. Top plays: bull call spread 750/760 and put credit spread 740/739, both invalidated below 739.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.