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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $756.48EOD only

Max Pain

$750.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.32

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-6.48

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

2.63

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bullish with a strong pin magnet around $695 and upside leash to $704 in the 1-week horizon; Confidence: 9.0/10. Primary supports are large positive GEX (+$1.6B) concentrated at $695-$697, heavy call premium flow centered at $690-$694 (net call premium $177.3M at $690), and spot trading +1.22% with VIX 18.36 supportive of calm, range-bound action; conflict: max pain (~$681) sits ~2.0% below spot and long-dated put floor $495-$650 creates structural downside if a catalyst punctures dealers.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 9.0 per feed (base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 pinning; +0.5 spot 2% above MP; +0.5 VIX=18.4); no missing catalysts identified so no override.

Supports: GEX clusters +$413M at $695 / +$26.6M at $696 / +$20.2M at $690; heavy net call premium at 690-694 (see top premium flow); positive DEX +294.8M shares suggesting dealer long delta exposure.
Conflicts: Max pain $681-$678 series sits 2–3% below spot; large structural put OI concentrated far below (535 flip, puts 495-650) can accelerate downside if realized; mixed flow (P/C vol 1.14, OI 2.35) suggests retail put interest but institutional call buying near spot.

📌**Pinning** concentrated at $695-$697 (GEX +$413M at $695) — dealers likely hedging around current spot.

📈**Net call premium** heavy at $690-$694 shows short-term institutional directional buy/sell-call flow supporting higher prints.

⚠️**Max pain** sits ~ $681 across near expiries — a gap vs spot that create tension if selling picks up.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol regime: Avg IV 17.1% and ATM term structure sub-20% with VIX 18.36 — favors premium-selling and range structures.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$1.6B) concentrated at $695-$697 implies strong dealer delta hedging that creates a near-term magnet to those strikes.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium +$1.2B with P/C volume 1.14 but P/C OI 2.35 — institutional call buying around spot and retail put accumulation deeper down.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $694.46 is ~2.0% above near-term MP ($681-$678), creating slight upside bias while MP exerts gravitational pull toward low-680s if hedges unwind.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and positive GEX concentrated across the next several expirations (695-697 clusters) and flat MP (~$681 across expirations) indicate a persistent range that should last 2–4 weeks; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$690.75$698.18

Break above $698.18 sustained would shift dealer hedges higher; failure back below $690.75 increases risk to MP (~$681).

Next 1 week

$684.68$704.24

Close below $684.68 widens path to max pain $681; close above $704.24 signals pin release and potential short-squeeze into higher bands.

Next 2 weeks

$676.57$712.35

A catalyst or broad market risk-off would flip the regime despite positive GEX; structural put floor $495-$650 remains ultimate downside cushion.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $681 (2026-04-14); $679 (2026-04-15); $678 (2026-04-16)

EM guardrails: 2d $690.75/$698.18; 1w $684.68/$704.24

Support: $690.00 · $684.68 · $681.00

Resistance: $698.18 · $704.24 · $712.35

Gamma flip: ~$535.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 204,057 (23.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $495–$650 forms long-term support; large OI cluster near $535 marks a convex downside layer but well below current spot and gamma flip (~$535).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.6B

DEX: +294.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$535 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 204,057 (23.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma concentrated at $695 (+$413M) with additional clusters at $696/$697/$690; dealers will buy delta as spot falls toward these pins and sell delta as spot rises above them — a mean-reverting dynamic; if spot moves +2% (~$708) dealers will be less short (reduce hedges) and pin influence weakens; if spot moves -2% (~$680) dealer buy-delta hedges intensify near $695 then compress when spot trades below heavy put clusters, but max pain near $681 may start collecting sellers and flip liquidity.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 17.1% vs VIX 18.36 — IV slightly cheap to index but consistent with low realized vols; favors selling premium but watch intraday spikes.

Term structure: Forward structure low and flat near-dated (1–16d ATM 9–15%), rises modestly beyond 30d (15–16%); comfortable steepening around 24–45d offers calendar/diagonal edges.

Skew: Skew: short-dated IV depressed (1d–3d ATM 9–13%) vs 30–45d ~15% — tradeable calendar edges; mispriced opportunity: sell 5/29 (15.2%) vs buy 4/17 (12.8%) at 695 to capture ~2.4 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $1.2B net premium (call-biased near spot); P/C vol 1.14, P/C OI 2.35 indicates institutional call buying and retail put accumulation deeper out.

Directional prints: 11.5 put 690 OTM 4/15 — SPY260415P00690000 heavy print vol 108,848 vs OI 429 — could be large put buys (protective) or block sells; within mixed flow the more consistent interpretation is institutional buys of short-dated protection (buy puts). 0 call 694 ITM 4/14 — SPY260414C00694000 extreme volume; likely liquidity trades converting longs or rolling; with heavy call premium net, consistent with short-term call buying/overlay.

Unusual: 5.4 put 691 OTM 4/14 — SPY260414P00691000 417,735 vol vs OI 197 (2120x) — intraday execution into expiry; likely small-ticket sales or mechanical flow, not sustainable directional signal.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip far below (~$535) is distant but large put floor $495–$650 can accelerate downside if market stress arrives.

!Pin unwind: breach and close below $684.68 / 1-week lower EM exposes MP $681 and could flip dealer hedges into selling.

!Expiry squeezes/non-linear flows in the next 3 trading days (heavy short-dated activity) can spike intraday IV despite low overall IV.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SPY 694.46 shares	Dealer pin may cap upside near $695–$698; capital at risk if breach toward MP $681.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating naked short stock into heavy pin; consider only for hedged traders	GEX pinning at $695 will force dealer flows against short.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 4/30 $705 call (short-term overlay)	Call likely exercised if >$705; limited upside due to pin near $695.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/29 $665/$660 put spread	Large index downside or MP move below $665; structural put floor begins near $650.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/30 $705 call (directional)	Low IV but limited edge vs selling premium near pin; expensive if short-dated momentum fades.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 4/30 $684/$679 put spread	Works if pin breaks and price heads to MP; limited if range holds and GEX keeps price elevated.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/30 $682 put / buy $676 put x sell $704 call / buy $710 call	Tail event or break of pin toward MP $681 or above $712.35 widens losses.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell 5/29 $695 call (IV~15.2%) and buy 4/17 $695 call (IV~12.8%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated, buy shorter-dated)	Shorting the longer-dated leg risks slow decay on the buy leg; requires monitoring and ability to roll if pin releases.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2027-03-19 $695 call (long-dated) and sell 4/30 $695 call short (regular calendar/diagonal)	Large near-term gap vs long dated gamma; benefits if range persists over months.

Top Plays

Sell 4/30 iron condor around the pin

Sell 4/30 $682/$676 put spread and sell $704/$710 call spread

Captures premium while dealers pin at $695; positive GEX and low IV favor premium collection across 30–45 DTE.

Credit: $0.65-$0.90

Max loss: 5.35 per side

BE: $681.35 (put side) / $707.35 (call side)

Mgmt: Take 50–70% of max profit at 30% of DTE remaining; cut if spot closes beyond $684.68 or above $704.24.

Traders who want defined-risk short premium with 30–45 DTE exposure.

Sell 5/29 $665/$660 put spread

Multi-week take on dealer pin and structural support — collects premium with distance to gamma flip; term structure richer at 45d supports credit.

Credit: $0.30-$0.50

Max loss: $4.70

BE: $664.70

Mgmt: Close at 50–60% of max profit or if spot trades below $676.57 (2-week lower EM).

Defined-risk yield seekers comfortable with assignment into long-term exposure.

Reverse calendar: sell 5/29 695 / buy 4/17 695

Sell 5/29 $695 call (IV~15.2%) and buy 4/17 $695 call (IV~12.8%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated)

Exploits higher long-dated IV vs short-dated IV at 695; sells volatility term where it's rich and buys short-dated protection around the pin.

Credit: $0.20-$0.60

Max loss: Potential assignment/roll costs

BE: Depends on roll/decay; target realized carry from net credit and theta inversion.

Mgmt: Close if short-dated IV jumps >3 vol-pts or if spot moves >$6 away from $695; roll the sold 5/29 leg wider if pin breaks.

Vol traders who can manage directional risk and roll the short leg; lower margin than naked positions.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $695 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 4/30 iron condor: sell $682/$676 put spread and sell $704/$710 call spread.

IFIf spot drops and closes below $684.68 (1-week lower EM) → Buy 4/30 $684/$679 put spread (bear put) to play toward MP $681.

IFIf spot remains inside $690.75–$698.18 for two sessions → Initiate sell 5/29 $695 call and buy 4/17 $695 call (reverse calendar) at observed IV cross.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot closes below $676.57 (2-week lower EM) → Widen iron condor wings by 2 strikes on the put side or roll short puts down 1–2 strikes (e.g., 682→676 short to 676→670).

ADJIf VIX spikes >25 or IV term steepens >3 vol points vs baseline → Hedge short premium by buying 1–2x 4/30 $705 calls or close short-call side of condors.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf P/L on short 4/30 iron condor reaches 60% of max profit → Buy to close both spreads and realize gains.

EXITIf spot closes above $704.24 (1-week upper EM) or below $676.57 (2-week lower EM) → Close all short premium positions immediately.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: range-bound with a strong pin at $695 and multi-week durability — favor defined short-premium and term-structure sells (iron condors, reverse calendars); invalidation: sustained close outside $684.68–$704.24 (especially below $684.68). Top plays: 4/30 iron condor (defined-risk premium), 5/29 $665/$660 put spread (multi-week income), reverse calendar (sell 5/29/ buy 4/17 at 695) for vol arbitrage.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.