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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $742.72EOD only

Max Pain

$734.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.93

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-8.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.45

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning near max pain $737-739; dealers long gamma (+$1.7B) support upside; VIX 16.7, low vol favors drift. Resistance $760.72, support $737. Thesis multi-week.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX pinning; +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

Supports: Low vol, dealer gamma, spot above MP, bullish macro
Conflicts: Max pain pinning, mixed flow, resistance at $760.72

📈Low vol regime favors gradual drift upward.

🏦Dealers long gamma $1.7B; flip at $530 far below.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low realized vol; VIX 16.7 moderately elevated but not extreme.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning with +$1.7B GEX; flip at ~$530 distant.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow but net dealer gamma positive.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~1.2% above max pain $737, upward bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural low vol and dealer gamma support drift; $760.72 resistance defines range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$738.46$752.83

Low vol + gamma support move to $752.83 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$730.56$760.72

Range expansion to $760.72 possible.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $737 (2026-05-22); $739 (2026-05-26); $739 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 1w $738.46/$752.83

Support: $737.00 · $730.56

Resistance: $760.72

Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,210 (28.9% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $737-739; EM 1w $738.46/$752.83; support $737, $730.56; resistance $760.72; gamma flip ~$530.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.7B

DEX: +293.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$530 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,210 (28.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.7B, DEX +293.9M shares; strong positive gamma supports upside, flip at $530 is remote.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV low vs VIX 16.7, options cheap for long vol.

Term structure: Flat term structure, no event kinks.

Skew: Skew neutral; no actionable vol opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $480.9M positive, fueled by aggressive put buying; P/C vol ratio 0.95 (call-heavy) but P/C OI ratio 2.48 (put-heavy), indicating short-term bearish bias.

Directional prints: put 747 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 511.6x; massive new put buying; likely bought for downside protection or bearish bet. put 746 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 301.5x; heavy new put buying, OTM; bearish directional. put 748 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 150.8x; ITM put buying; defensive or bearish.

Unusual: 7.4 put 747 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 107.5x; IV 7.4% vs low VIX; later expiration unusual activity; likely bought for next week protection. put 749 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 91.7x; ITM put flow; unusual volume for deep ITM. 1.6 put 745 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 93.0x; OTM put buying with moderate IV; unusual high volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below max pain $737

!Sharp VIX spike

!Gamma flip if spot drops to $530

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-12 $754.00 call Why now: SPY bullish bias, dealers long gamma, VIX low. Upside to 760+.	Time decay accelerates; break below 737 fails.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-18 $737.00/$736.00 put spread Why now: Max pain 737 support strong; high open interest keeps spot pinned above.	Gap down through 737 kills spread.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $752.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $740.00 call Why now: Near-term IV elevated from put buying; back-month cheaper IV. Capture theta decay.	If spot drops, front and back both lose; widening IV hurts.

Top Plays

Bullish Call

Buy 2026-06-12 $754.00 call

Buy 754 call for upside to 760+

Why this play: Best expresses bullish bias with dealer gamma support.

Debit: $5.69-$6.95

Max loss: $6.95

BE: $760.95

Mgmt: Sell at 760 resistance or roll up.

Aggressive bulls

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $737.00/$736.00 put spread

Sell 737/736 put spread to collect premium

Why this play: Safe income on max pain support at 737

Credit: $0.26-$0.32

Max loss: $0.68

BE: $736.68

Mgmt: Exit if SPY breaks 737.

Income seekers

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-06-05 $752.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $740.00 call

Sell front call, buy back call for volatility arbitrage

Why this play: Captures theta decay from elevated near-term IV

Debit: $15.66-$19.15

Max loss: $19.15

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close before front expiration.

Advanced traders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SPY bounces from $737 support → Buy 2026-06-12 $754.00 call

IFIF SPY trades near $737 → Sell 2026-06-18 $737/$736 put spread

IFIF SPY holds between $737 and $752 → Sell 2026-06-05 $752 call / buy 2026-07-17 $740 call diagonal

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SPY breaks below $737 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer gamma support; play via long call on bounce from 737, put spread at max pain, or call diagonal while IV elevated. Exit if 737 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.