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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $733.73EOD only

Max Pain

$739.00

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.46

0.7% from close

Price Gap

+5.27

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.46

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Low-vol trending regime with dealer short gamma at max-pain pin suggests neutral-to-bearish bias. Spot near $737 MP; breach could accelerate. High confidence from GEX/flow alignment and spot proximity.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; total 8.5

Supports: GEX/flow alignment; spot near MP; low vol stability
Conflicts: Mixed flow; negative gamma amplifying risk; SPY down 0.67%

🔒Max-pain pin at $737 holds spot near-term

📉Negative GEX -$1.2B risks acceleration on breakouts

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

IV Low vs VIX 18; vol compressed, typical range

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$1.2B; gamma flip ~$530; dealers short gamma, amplifying moves

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; put OI concentration at $530 suggests bearish deep OTM

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $737 MP; within 0.4%; pinning likely short-term

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Low vol, trending regime with negative gamma; price ranges extend 2 weeks

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$728.27$739.19

Spot near MP $737; range 728-739; low vol supports mean reversion

Next 1 week

$722.06$745.40

GEX negative; breach of MP could trigger selloff to $722

Next 2 weeks

$714.29$753.16

Broader downtrend; support $714; negative gamma favors downside

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $737 (2026-05-19); $739 (2026-05-20); $739 (2026-05-21)

EM guardrails: 2d $728.27/$739.19; 1w $722.06/$745.40

Support: $714.29

Resistance: $737.00 · $753.16

Gamma flip: ~$530.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,229 (27.8% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $737 (2026-05-19); $739 (20-21). EM guardrails: 2d $728.27/$739.19; 1w $722.06/$745.40. Support $714.29; Resistance $737, $753.16. Gamma flip ~$530 (put OI 215k).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-1.2B

DEX: +289.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$530 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 215,229 (27.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$1.2B, short gamma; DEX +289.4M shares (long delta). Gamma flip at ~$530. Put OI 215k at $530 suggests bearish hedging deep OTM.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV low vs VIX 18; vol regime Low implies cheap options for hedging

Term structure: Flat to contango; no event kinks; near-term expiries show slight volatility

Skew: Put skew elevated at $530 gamma flip; potential put calendar spreads or sell upside calls

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$73M, high put/call vol (1.19) & OI (2.46). Yet unusual prints dominated by large call volume, suggesting potential bullish positioning or hedging offsetting bearish flow.

Directional prints: 2.3 put 733 OTM 2026-05-19 — Vol 473k, OI 4.4k, vol/OI 106.5. OTM put, high vol suggests bearish sentiment.

Unusual: 1.4 call 734 OTM 2026-05-19 — Vol 393k, OI 1.7k, vol/OI 237.6. Extreme call volume, likely opening or hedging. 0 call 733 ITM 2026-05-19 — Vol 272k, OI 1.3k, vol/OI 210.6. Massive call spike. 12.5 call 734 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol 61k, OI 399, vol/OI 151.8. High vol on next-day expiration.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot holds MP $737, delaying move

!Negative gamma exacerbates breakout

!Mixed flow lacks catalyst

!Low vol may persist

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $719.00/$705.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from moderate decline; 30 DTE aligns with duration.	Spot rallies above short strike or stays at max-pain causing time decay.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $719.00 put Why now: Long put offers convexity for a breakdown below max-pain; multi-week hold.	Time decay if spot holds; requires directional move to profit.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $755.00/$765.00 call spread Why now: High put/call OI ratio neutral; call credit spread profits from sideways to lower move.	Spot rallies above short strike from short-squeeze or positive gamma.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $719.00/$705.00 put spread

Debit spread profits from moderate decline with capped risk.

Why this play: Defined risk, aligns with moderate bearish bias and dealer short gamma near max-pain; 30 DTE matches duration.

Debit: $2.48-$3.04

Max loss: $3.04

BE: $715.96

Mgmt: Exit if underlying holds $737; consider rolling if near max loss.

Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-18 $719.00 put

Unlimited upside on downside move; limited risk to premium paid.

Why this play: Convexity for breakdown below max-pain; high payoff if negative gamma accelerates moves.

Debit: $7.12-$8.70

Max loss: $8.70

BE: $710.30

Mgmt: Set stop at premium erosion; take partial profits on momentum.

Traders expecting sharp decline.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $755.00/$765.00 call spread

Collects premium from sideways to lower moves; defined risk.

Why this play: Neutral to bearish; high put/call OI supports, but less aggressive than other plays.

Credit: $1.99-$2.43

Max loss: $7.57

BE: $757.43

Mgmt: Close if short strike is breached; adjust if volatility spikes.

Traders with neutral-bearish outlook seeking income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSPY breaks below $737.00 (max pain) → Enter bear put spread (Buy 2026-06-18 $719/$705 put spread) near $2.48-$3.04

IFSPY trades below $714.29 support → Enter long put (Buy 2026-06-18 $719 put) near $7.12-$8.70 for convex breakdown

Exit Triggers

EXITSPY holds above $737 for 2 days → Close bear put spread or long put to limit losses

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias with dealer short gamma near max-pain $737. Key support $714.29, resistance $737/$753.16. Prefer bear put spread for defined risk; long put for convexity. Invalidation above $737.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.