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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETFClose $745.64EOD only

Max Pain

$739.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.62

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-6.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

2.48

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SPY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

SPY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin at the spot cluster (~$680) and upside magnet into the 1-week EM upper bound $688.48; Confidence: 7.5/10.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 (pre-computed): +1.2B GEX concentrated at $677–$680 (pinning); net premium +$217.9M and P/C vol 1.71 support call demand; low IV (ATM ~15–17%) favors short-premium tactics but watch MP trend rising from $654→$680.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $675–$680; large put OI cluster at $630-$645 provides deeper structural floor; EM lower bounds ($675.66 / $671.34) act as near-term guardrails.
Conflicts: Max pain short-term lower ($654–$666) and MP trend rising; P/C OI skew (2.17) shows longer-dated protective put demand; gamma flip far below (~$535) so downside can accelerate.

📌Pinning: +$107.8M GEX at $680 (0.0% from spot).

📈Heavy call premium at $677/$685/$695 (net positive flow ~$133M at these strikes).

⚠️Large put OI concentrated $535-$630 — tail protection priced across expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Low

Low vol regime — Avg IV 17.6% and ATM 1d–8d 12.9%–15.1% implies cheap premium and muted realized moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — concentrated positive GEX (+$1.2B) at $675–$680 creates a magnetic bias and dealer short-delta hedging near spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: strong net premium inflow +$217.9M and P/C vol 1.71 — short-dated call buys near spot but larger put OI deeper in the tail.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $679.91 sits above current short-dated MP pins ($654–$666) but MP trend rising toward $680 suggests dealers are shifting pins higher.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX pinning persists across near expirations (concentrations at $675–$680) and MP trend shows steady rise over many expirations; prefer 30–45 DTE core with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$675.66$684.16

Pin at $677–$680 and EM upper $684.16; break < $675.66 would weaken pin.

Next 1 week

$671.34$688.48

Sustained call flow at $677/685 and rising MP support upside; violation below $671.34 invalidates.

Next 2 weeks

$662.95$696.87

MP trend and call flow can extend toward upper bound; break above $696.87 requires acceleration in net call buying.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $654 (2026-04-09); $664 (2026-04-10); $666 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $675.66/$684.16; 1w $671.34/$688.48

Support: $675.00 · $670.00 · $665.00

Resistance: $684.00 · $688.00 · $696.00

Gamma flip: ~$535.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 204,090 (21.3% below spot)

Structural: Deep put OI and structural floor between $495–$630; heavy put wall at $630 provides long-term downside catchment (positions should size for stepwise protection).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.2B

DEX: +271.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$535 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 204,090 (21.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $677/$679/$680; dealers will buy spot on dips into $675 and sell into rallies above $684; a ±2% move (~$666–$694) will materially reduce short-delta hedges on the upside and force dealer buying on small declines near the pin, reinforcing mean reversion.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is low (Avg IV 17.6%) relative to typical risk-on regimes; cheap to buy volatility, favorable to selling premium given low realized fear.

Term structure: Upward sloping beyond month (16%→17.8% at 134d→18.2% at 162d) — mild contango; short-dated IV depressed (1d–8d 12.9%–15.1%) and shows event sensitivity into expiries.

Skew: Skew: deep protective puts expensive relative to ATM (e.g., May 8 $620 IV 24.7%) — mispriced tail protection; buy far-dated puts (e.g., $620 2026-05-08) rather than short-dated ATM puts for cheaper tail exposure.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $217.9M bullish; P/C volume 1.71 and P/C OI 2.17 indicate larger put OI structurally but current flow favors calls near spot (notably $677/$685/$695).

Directional prints: 16.1 put 679 OTM 2026-04-10 — SPY260410P00679000: vol 85,899 vs OI 473 (181.6x) — heavy short-dated put flow; could be buys of protection or sell-to-close; in context of net call premium, likely protective buys. 17.2 put 677 OTM 2026-04-10 — SPY260410P00677000: vol 55,446 vs OI 1,750 (31.7x) — concentrated short-dated activity at the pin band; interpretation: tactical hedges around expiry. 13.8 call 677 ITM 2026-04-13 — Heavy call OI/flow: $677 call OI 75,516 and top premium flow $677 net ~$55.3M — indicates directional call buying or call spreads pushing upside.

Unusual: 16.1 put 679 OTM 2026-04-10 — SPY260410P00679000: extremely elevated volume vs OI (181.6x) — standout short-dated protective activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits at ~$535 — large downside acceleration if market gaps severely lower and pin breaks;

!Short-dated expiry cluster (2026-04-10/13) can cause pin release and acute repricing;

!Low IV means sudden macro shock (rates, CPI, Fed remarks) can spike VIX and crush short-premium positions;

!Rising MP trend from $654→$680 could re-anchor dealers higher if sustained call demand continues.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy SPY 2026-04-20 at spot $679.91	Exposed to gap downside; better owning into pullbacks to $675–$670.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid shorting into concentrated dealer gamma at $675–$680	Dealers will buy dips near the pin, steepening losses.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + sell 2026-04-30 685 call	Caps upside near EM upper; assignment risk if rally continues.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-30 670/660 put spread	Break below 660 exposes to structural put demand and faster losses.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 690 call	Low IV but expensive time decay; better as pair with defined-risk call spreads.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-08 680/660 bear put spread	Costly if no volatility pickup; tail protection priced in deeper-dated puts.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-30 655/645 put x 688/696 call condor	Large gap or expiry-level pin release; small IV cushion but GEX supports mean reversion.
Calendar/diagonal (sell high-IV leg)	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-13 677 call, buy 2026-05-29 677 call (sell near-term lower-IV leg?)	Must sell the higher-IV leg; front-week IV depressed — prefer selling nearer-term if it has higher IV.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-12-18 675 call, sell 2026-05-29 675 call (sell higher near-term IV?)	Requires correct leg selection by IV; benefits from roll-down and positive carry.

Top Plays

Agenda: Short-dated put spread at the pin (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-13 675/670 put spread

Uses concentrated GEX at $675–$680 and cheap short-dated IV to collect premium while pin holds into week expiries.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: $4.60

BE: $674.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of credit; cut at price < $670 or VIX spike >25.

Traders looking to collect short premium with defined risk

Multi-week iron condor (core)

Sell 2026-04-30 655/645 put x 688/696 call condor

30–45 DTE trade aligned with positive GEX, AMPLE premium on both wings and EM guardrails as natural boundaries.

Credit: $1.00-$1.60

Max loss: $9.00

BE: Lower:654.00 Upper:697.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max gain; widen/roll if spot breaches wings or VIX >22.

Accounts that prefer defined risk, collecting higher credit than weeklies

LEAPS diagonal (income + directional)

Buy 2026-12-18 675 call, sell 2026-05-29 675 call (sell higher IV leg)

Capture term-structure carry with long-dated exposure to rising MP while monetizing nearer-term IV; extra time reduces gamma and roll risk vs short weeklies.

Debit: $2.50-$4.50

Max loss: Premium paid

BE: $679.50

Mgmt: Take profit on 50% move in underlying or roll short leg monthly to collect carry; cut if spot < 660 for >2 weeks.

Traders wanting directional exposure with income and lower theta

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $675.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-13 675/670 put spread

IFIf spot rallies and tags $688.00 → Initiate 2026-04-30 iron condor by selling 688/696 calls and 655/645 puts

IFIf term IV (2026-05-08 ATM) > 20% → Buy 2026-05-08 620 put for tail protection (strike $620 available)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls to $670.00 → Roll down iron-condor short calls 688→682 and widen put wing to 650/640 on same expiry

ADJIf VIX rises >25 or ATM IV 1w > 18% → Close short-dated short premium positions (e.g., 2026-04-13 put spreads) and shift to 30–45 DTE wings

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short put spread 675/670 reaches 60% of max profit → Buy to close the 2026-04-13 675/670 put spread

EXITIf spot closes below $660 on daily basis → Close/hedge all short premium and buy protection (e.g., 2026-05-08 620 put)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: pin-driven mean reversion around $675–$680 favors selling defined-risk premium (short put spreads, iron condors) and collecting carry; invalidation below $671.34–$675 (daily close) shifts regime to directional/trending. Top plays: short 675/670 put spread (tactical), 4/30 iron condor (core 30–45 DTE), LEAPS diagonal (directional income for longer horizon).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.