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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.13

3.4% from close

Price Gap

-1.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis driven by strong dealer gamma pinning and heavy bullish flow, with spot above max pain. High vol and resistance at $36 are key risks. Confidence is high due to alignment across GEX, flow, and gamma structure.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 positive gamma pinning -1 spot 13% above MP +1 low VIX = 8.0. Override not needed.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive dealer gamma ($144.8M), spot above max pain ($32), low VIX (17).
Conflicts: High vol, spot 13% above MP, resistance at $36, potential vol crush post-expiry.

🟢GEX +144.8M strongly positive, pinning near $32-$30 strikes.

🔴Spot at $36.10 faces resistance, 1w range top $38.42.

🟡High vol (HV > IV?) suggests event premium; may compress post-OPEX.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to VIX (17) due to event risk and recent moves. High vol regime implies larger expected moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Large positive gamma ($144.8M) with max pain pins at $32 (May 22), $31 (May 29), $30 (Jun 5). Pinning likely supports spot near these levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with significant net premium buying, consistent with dealer hedging that adds gamma support.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $36.10 is above May 22 max pain ($32) by 13%, indicating potential pullback pressure toward pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to May 22 OPEX and concentrated gamma pinning create a short-term event-driven setup.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$32.75$38.42

Support at $32.75 (1w low), resistance at $38.42 (1w high). Bias favors lower end due to pinning.

Next 2 weeks

$31.47$39.69

Range $31.47-$39.69. Pinning to $30-$31 zone after OPEX may dominate.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-05-22); $31 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 1w $32.75/$38.42

Support: $31.47

Resistance: $36.00 · $39.69

Structural: Max pain pins: $32 (2026-05-22), $31 (2026-05-29), $30 (2026-06-05). 1w EM guardrails: $32.75/$38.42. Support: $31.47. Resistance: $36.00, $39.69. No gamma flip within 30%.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+144.8M

DEX: +66.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$144.8M (strong positive), DEX +66.1M shares. No gamma flip due to lack of put OI. Dealers long gamma, promoting stability and pinning.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SMCI IV is rich relative to VIX (17) at ~50%+ vs VIX ~17, indicating event premium. High IV vs sector suggests elevated risk premium.

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated with potential backwardation into OPEX; post-expiry term structure may flatten as event risk clears.

Skew: Put skew elevated, but bullish flow suggests call activity dominant. Opportunity: sell puts at $30 support for premium, but risk of gap if support breaks.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $58.8M; P/C vol 0.16, strongly bullish.

Directional prints: 72.6 call 38.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 220.8; aggressive buy of OTM calls; likely opening, bullish. 69 call 36.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 65.2; buy of OTM calls; likely opening, bullish. 68.8 call 35.5 ITM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 54.2; buy of ITM calls; likely opening, bullish.

Unusual: 69.7 call 37 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 24.9; high call volume; likely opening, bullish. 76.8 call 42 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 6.2; moderate; buy of OTM calls; bullish. 20.3 put 35 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 9.7; last 0.01; likely sold puts, bullish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to hold support at $31.47 could trigger sharp decline.

!Volatility crush after OPEX may compress premiums, hurting long vol positions.

!Resistance at $36 may cap upside if buying momentum fades.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $36.00/$36.50 call spread Why now: High GEX and strong bullish flow support near-term rally to $36.	Stock fails to hold $32 support, resulting in debit loss.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $31.50/$31.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma pinning and high put OI at $31 act as support.	Sharp downside break below $31 triggers max loss.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-05-29 $36.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $31.50 put Why now: Aggressive OTM call buying and low put demand favor bullish risk reversal.	Undefined downside if stock drops below $31 short put strike.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $36.00/$36.50 call spread

Buy $36/$36.50 call spread near $0.19. Max gain $0.29 if SMCI closes above $36.50.

Why this play: Strong bullish flow and GEX support rally to $36. Limited risk with high probability.

Debit: $0.17-$0.21

Max loss: $0.21

BE: $36.21

Mgmt: Hold to expiration; exit if SMCI drops below $31.47.

Traders expecting moderate upside with defined risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $31.50/$31.00 put spread

Sell $31.50/$31 put spread for $0.05 credit. Max profit if SMCI stays above $31.50.

Why this play: Dealer gamma pinning and high put OI at $31 provide support. Low capital at risk.

Credit: $0.04-$0.05

Max loss: $0.45

BE: $31.45

Mgmt: Close if SMCI breaks below $31.47; otherwise let expire.

Defensive traders seeking income with support levels.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-05-29 $36.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $31.50 put

Buy $36 call, sell $31.50 put. Net cost ~$1.04. Unlimited upside, downside risk to $31.50.

Why this play: Aggressive bullish flow and low put demand favor upside. Unlimited upside potential.

Debit: $0.94-$1.14

Max loss: $31.50

BE: $31.50

Mgmt: Delta hedge if price approaches $36; consider closing if support breaks.

Aggressive traders expecting strong upward move.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF SMCI holds above $31.47 support with bullish flow → Buy 2026-05-29 $36/$36.50 call spread near $0.19

IFIF SMCI stays above $31.47 and near $32 gamma pin → Sell 2026-05-29 $31.50/$31 put spread for $0.05 credit

IFIF SMCI breaks above $36 resistance with high volume → Execute bullish risk reversal: buy $36 call, sell $31.50 put (net ~$1.04)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF SMCI closes below $31.47 support → Close all positions: unwind call spread, buy back put spread, close risk reversal

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with resistance at $36 and support at $31.47. Use bull call spread for defined risk to $36, put credit spread for income near support, and risk reversal for breakout. Exit if $31.47 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.