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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only

Max Pain

$30.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.92

5.7% from close

Price Gap

-2.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SMCI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SMCI has bullish flow and strong dealer gamma at $30, supporting pinning bias. Spot above max pain creates pull risk. Expect consolidation $30-35, bullish bias on dips.

Confidence:

8 / 10

GEX/flow alignment +2, GEX positive +1, VIX 17 +1, spot vs MP -1; base 5 -> 8.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, VIX below 20, strong resistance at $35.
Conflicts: Spot above max pain, high vol regime, overhead call walls.

🟢Dealer gamma at $30 supports floor; dips to $30 likely bought.

⚠️Spot 9.7% above max pain; pull to $30 possible by expiry.

📈Bullish flow and positive GEX align for upward drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: IV elevated relative to HV due to recent volatility regime; VIX 17 moderate but SMCI IV rich.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$94.5M positive with concentration at $30 max pain; dealers hedge delta, pinning spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: Call premiums dominate; net buying pressure supports upside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above: Spot ~$33.5 vs $30 max pain; 9.7% above, but gamma pinning may draw towards $30.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained high vol, strong gamma, and bullish flow suggest prolonged pinning without imminent catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$31.54$35.37

Gamma pinning supports drift towards $30; resistance at $35 caps.

Next 1 week

$30.26$36.66

Expiration pinning to $30 may cause dips; upside resistance $35.

Next 2 weeks

$29.37$37.54

Broader range; max pain $30 dominant but dealer hedging creates asymmetry.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $30 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 2d $31.54/$35.37; 1w $30.26/$36.66

Support: $30.50 · $29.37

Resistance: $33.50 · $34.00 · $35.00

Structural: Support $30.5, $29.37; resistance $33.5, $34, $35; max pain $30 (all expiries); EM guardrails 2d $31.54/$35.37, 1w $30.26/$36.66.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+94.5M

DEX: +59.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$94.5M; DEX +59.3M shares; gamma pinning near $30; no flip risk.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich: SMCI IV elevated relative to VIX 17, reflecting event risk and high vol expectations.

Term structure: Steep contango, near-term uncertainty; expiry kink this week with pinning tension.

Skew: Call skew elevated; puts cheap. Opportunity: sell puts at $30 support for premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $20.98M with P/C vol ratio 0.34 indicates strong bullish bias.

Directional prints: 82.6 call 35.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 4.3, high relative to OI, suggests aggressive call buying; bullish positioning.

Unusual: 77.6 put 33.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 13.3, extremely high, indicates unusual put activity; likely hedging or bearish bet, but net premium is call-heavy. 110.9 put 22 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 12.5, deep OTM put with high IV; speculative or hedging, but insignificant relative to overall bullish flow. 77.1 put 34 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 10.4, high put volume; could be protective puts but calls dominate.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pull to max pain $30 by expiry

!Failed breakout above $35 resistance

!Volatility spike from unanticipated catalyst

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $31.00/$36.00 call spread Why now: Call buying flow and low put volume support upside; bull call spread captures move with defined risk.	Underperformance below $30; max loss of net debit.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $29.00/$26.00 put spread Why now: High put IV and bullish bias; put credit spread provides income with defined loss if support breaks.	Gap below $28.5 could cause max loss.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $30.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish bias and elevated put IV; cash-secured put aligns with willingness to own at $30.	Assignment below cost basis if price falls; full downside risk.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $31.00/$36.00 call spread

Captures move above $31 with capped gain up to $36, using low put volume and net call premium.

Why this play: Directly leverages bullish flow and earnings drift with defined risk, outperforms others in capturing upside.

Debit: $2.10-$2.56

Max loss: $2.56

BE: $33.56

Mgmt: Manage near $35 resistance; roll or close if stock drops below $30.50.

Traders seeking directional upside with limited capital at risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $29.00/$26.00 put spread

Sells put spread at $29/$26, collecting premium while expecting support above $30.

Why this play: Provides income with defined risk, suitable for bullish bias but lower max gain than bull call spread.

Credit: $0.72-$0.87

Max loss: $2.13

BE: $28.13

Mgmt: Monitor support at $30; exit if stock breaks below $30.50.

Income-focused traders who expect price to stay above $29.

Cash-Secured Put

Sell 2026-07-17 $30.00 cash-secured put

Sells $30 put, collecting premium and obligating purchase at $30 if assigned.

Why this play: Aligns with willingness to own at $30 but requires more capital and has higher risk than spreads.

Credit: $2.02-$2.46

Max loss: $27.54

BE: $27.54

Mgmt: Roll if stock approaches $30 to avoid assignment; or accept shares.

Traders comfortable owning shares at $30 for long-term upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf SMCI pulls back to $30.5 support → Buy 2026-06-18 $31/$36 call spread at $2.10-$2.56

IFIf SMCI holds above $30.5 and RSI above 50 → Sell 2026-07-17 $29/$26 put spread at $0.72-$0.87

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf SMCI breaks below $30.5 → Close bull call spread and put credit spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIf SMCI falls below $29.37 → Exit all long positions

Tactical Summary

SMCI has bullish flow and strong dealer gamma at $30, support at $30.5 and $29.37, resistance at $33.5, $34, $35. Expect consolidation $30-35 with bullish bias on dips. Enter bull call spread on pullback to $30.5; manage risk below $30.5 and exit below $29.37.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.