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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only
Max Pain
$31.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.13
3.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
SMCI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

SMCI is bullish with strong dealer gamma ($+125M) and bullish flow, spot above max pain ($32). High vol regime and resistance at $33.5-$34 may cap near-term upside but expanded ranges target $36 over 1-2 weeks. Thesis: bullish drift with pin action near expiry.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Supports: Bullish flow, strong positive gamma (+$125M), spot above MP, DEX positive (+59M shares)
Conflicts: High vol regime, spot 6.2% from MP, resistance $33.5-$34, gamma pin at $32
🟢Bullish flow and GEX support continued upside.
⚠️High IV suggests caution; pin at $32 before expiry.
📈Price range leans bullish next 2 weeks with target $36.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated due to event uncertainty and historical volatility; VIX at 16.76 supports rich premium.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma strongly positive at +$125M, providing pinning support; no flip risk as no significant put OI within 30% below spot.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium bullish with call dominance, indicating buying pressure.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$33.5 is 6.2% above max pain ($32), suggesting dealer hedging may pull spot toward MP near expiry.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend to 2 weeks with clear support/resistance; gamma pin at $32 for weekly expiry, but longer-term GEX/flow suggest sustained bullish bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$32.33$34.59
Spot near $33.5; aiming for high end $34 but resistance at $34.
Next 1 week
$30.87$36.04
Expanded range; support at $30.87, resistance at $36.04. Bullish flow and GEX support upside.
Next 2 weeks
$29.56$37.35
Widest range; sustained bullish thesis with max pain at $30.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $32 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29); $30 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $32.33/$34.59; 1w $30.87/$36.04
Support: $31.50 · $29.56
Resistance: $33.50 · $34.00 · $35.00
Structural: Support $31.5, $29.56; Resistance $33.5, $34, $35; EM guardrails 2d $32.33-$34.59, 1w $30.87-$36.04; Max pain pins $32 (May22), $30 (May29, Jun5).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+125.0M

DEX: +59.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Strong positive gamma $+125M; delta positive +59M shares; no gamma flip risk within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SMCI IV elevated relative to VIX, consistent with high vol regime and event premium.

Term structure: Expected front-loaded vol due to weekly expiry; back-end normalizing.

Skew: Skew suggests put premium; no actionable opportunity from given data.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$2.99M, put/call vol ratio 0.69, favor calls in bullish flow.

Directional prints:

Unusual: 69.9 put 29 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 5.2; likely bought for downside hedge or bearish bet; bearish read. 162.5 put 18 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 2.9; deep OTM put buying; bearish speculation. 57 put 33 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.3; aggressive puts ahead of expiration; bearish pressure.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin may pull spot to $32 on expiry
!Resistance $33.5-$34 caps immediate upside
!High IV may lead to implied vol crush
!Drop below $31.5 support invalidates bullish thesis

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $34.50/$36.50 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread captures upside with limited cost; near-term expiry benefits from theta.
Resistance may cap; time decay if stock stalls.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-05 $30.00/$28.00 put spread
Why now: Bullish flow and dealer gamma support downside protection; high IV favors premium collection.
If spot drops below 30, capped loss; gamma pin may pull to 32.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $37.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $30.00 put
Why now: High IV inflates premiums; selling put at support and buying call OTM captures upside.
Unlimited downside if stock drops below put strike; short put exposes to gap risk.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $34.50/$36.50 call spread
Buy $34.50/$36.50 call spread to capture upside with defined risk.
Why this play: Best risk/reward for bullish drift; limited cost, theta favorable near expiry.
Debit: $0.70-$0.85
Max loss: $0.85
BE: $35.35
Mgmt: Exit if spot falls below $31.5; take profit near $36 or hold to expiry.
Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure with limited capital.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $30.00/$28.00 put spread
Sell $30/$28 put spread to earn credit while staying bullish.
Why this play: Collects premium in high IV; downside protection from dealer gamma support.
Credit: $0.26-$0.32
Max loss: $1.68
BE: $29.68
Mgmt: Close if spot nears $31.5; hold for max profit near expiry.
Income-focused traders wanting probability of profit.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-18 $37.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $30.00 put
Buy $37 call, sell $30 put for cost-effective bullish exposure.
Why this play: Unlimited upside with sold put at support; high IV inflates premiums.
Debit: $0.23-$0.29
Max loss: $30.00
BE: $30.00
Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; exit if spot breaks $31.5.
Aggressive traders with higher capital and risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $31.5 and rises above $32.5 → Enter 2026-06-05 $34.50/$36.50 call spread
IFSpot remains above $31.5 → Sell 2026-06-05 $30.00/$28.00 put spread
IFSpot breaks above $33.5 → Enter 2026-06-18 $37 call / $30 put risk reversal
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot falls below $31.5 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

SMCI bullish drift with gamma support at $32; use defined-risk spreads or risk reversal on break above $33.5; exit below $31.5.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.