Earnings Verdict
PLTR 69d out, strong bullish flow & pinning. 100% beat rate. High IV.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Aggressive call accumulation and pinning near $136.
⚠️Lottery $240 calls: 1145 vol vs 158 OI, 100% IV, low probability.
📈Call activity heavy at $137 and $136, OTM calls accumulating.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,223 (12.2% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-08-03 (69 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-29 (3d): ±$4.98 (3.6%)
- 2026-06-05 (10d): ±$8.58 (6.3%)
- 2026-06-12 (17d): ±$11.00 (8.1%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Front ~45% (3d), mid ~50% (10d), back ~55% (17d).
Crush estimate: Post-event crush ~10-15 pts IV.
Skew: Slight call skew OTM, put skew similar.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Hist avg ±5.7% vs implied 3.6% (3d).
Directional bias: Upward drift post-earnings (100% beat rate).
Key Levels
1$120.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $131.62/$141.58; 1w $128.03/$145.18
3Max pain pins: $136 (2026-05-29); $135 (2026-06-05); $136 (2026-06-12)
Flow Highlights
Large call buys at $137 (9.2k vol) and $136 (7.8k vol).
Bullish positioning, pinning near max pain $136.
Lottery $240 call (1.1k vol) and $147 call (9.5k vol).
Speculative upside bets, high IV.
Strategies
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $145.00/$165.00 call spread
Trigger: Exit at $165 or near earnings; manage stop at $136 invalidation.
Only eligible candidate; captures PLTR's bullish drift with defined risk.
Outperforms: Buy $145/$165 call spread to profit from post-earnings upside while limiting downside.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Gamma flip at $120 (put OI 30k).
!VIX 17, market tail risk offsets.
What to Watch
?Price action at $140 resistance.
?Call OI wall $150-$155.