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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $157.53EOD only
Max Pain
$185.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.10
3.9% from close
Price Gap
+27.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.99
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
ORCL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

ORCL trades below max pain with dealer short gamma, suggesting near-term downside risk toward gamma flip at $150. High vol and mixed flow add uncertainty, but structural resistance at $166 caps upside. Bearish bias targeting $148-$150 over next week.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 10.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Supports: Dealer short gamma accelerates moves; near gamma flip level; high vol supports breakouts
Conflicts: Positive delta from DEX; stock below MP but not at support; mixed flow limits conviction
🔻Dealer short gamma ($-61M) amplifies downside below $150 flip
🎯Max pain $170 is 12% above spot, unlikely pull in trending regime
📊High vol & trending gamma suggest breakout, not pin to MP

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime reflects elevated implied volatility vs 30d HV
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma regime with sizable dealer short gamma ($-61M) and gamma flip near $150
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: net premium context shows balanced put/call activity with slight put bias
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot at ~$152, trading below max pain ($170) by ~12%, suggesting weak upside momentum
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to monthly options expiry (06/26) drives event-specific dynamics

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$148.56$156.37
Testing support $148.56, break below could accelerate
Next 1 week
$142.86$162.06
Weak bias toward lower end of range $142.86
Next 2 weeks
$138.79$166.14
Range bound with downside risk to $138.79

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $170 (2026-06-26); $170 (2026-07-02); $182 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $148.56/$156.37; 1w $142.86/$162.06
Support: $150.00 · $138.79
Resistance: $166.14
Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,166 (1.6% below spot)
Structural: Key support: $150 (gamma flip), $138.79; resistance: $166.14; max pain pins: $170 (06/26, 07/02), $182 (07/10)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-61.0M

DEX: +57.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$150 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,166 (1.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer short gamma $-61M, implies negative gamma exposure; gamma flip at ~$150 where put OI concentration lies; positive delta (+$57.3M shares) but gamma-negative

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~50% vs VIX 19, rich vs index-implied; elevated ahead of earnings

Term structure: Term structure is backwardated with front-month elevated due to earnings event

Skew: Put skew elevated; potential opportunity in short vol via put spreads near support

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium -$166.8M with put/call volume ratio 1.20, bearish tilt, but unusual call print suggests mixed.

Directional prints: 45.3 call 155 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 11.5x, IV 45.3%. Bought or sold? Likely bought bullish opening. Premium $4.8M. 204.5 put 185 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.9x, IV 204.5%. Deep ITM put, likely protective or bearish hedge.

Unusual: 45.6 put 149 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.6x, IV 45.6%. OTM put, bearish speculation. 257.8 put 200 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.6x, IV 257.8%. Deep ITM put, extreme IV, unusual hedge activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Monthly expiry pin risk at max pain $170 despite trending gamma
!Breakout above $156.37 (2d range high) invalidates bearish thesis
!Gamma flip at $150 could attract buyers

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-02 $150.00/$145.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma, high put volume, resistance at $166. Downside momentum likely.
Upside breakeven if stock rallies above long strike. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2025-07-18 $150.00 missing; used 2026-07-02 $150.00.; short_put: resolved contract 2025-07-18 $145.00 missing; used 2026-07-02 $145.00.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $150.00 put
Why now: Net negative premium, bearish flow, high put IV at 150 strike.
Time decay if stock does not decline quickly. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2025-07-18 $150.00 missing; used 2026-07-02 $150.00.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread $150/$145
Buy 2026-07-02 $150.00/$145.00 put spread
Buy $150 put, sell $145 put for net debit ~$1.52; max gain $3.48, max loss $1.52.
Why this play: Better risk/reward with defined loss; aligns with bearish gamma and put flow.
Debit: $1.37-$1.68
Max loss: $1.68
BE: $148.32
Mgmt: Exit if ORCL breaks above $166; take profit at $145 or before expiry.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish bet with high probability.
#2
Long Put $150
Buy 2026-07-02 $150.00 put
Buy $150 put for ~$3.30; unlimited gain down to zero, but higher cost and vega risk.
Why this play: Direct bearish exposure with high payoff potential if downside accelerates.
Debit: $2.97-$3.63
Max loss: $3.63
BE: $146.37
Mgmt: Set stop at $166; consider rolling if theta decay accelerates.
Aggressive traders expecting sharp move lower.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF ORCL closes below $150.00 → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $150/$145 put spread for $1.37-$1.68 debit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF ORCL trades above $166.14 → THEN close all bearish positions (put spread or long put)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias next 1 week. Dealer short gamma and put flow favor downside to $148-$150. Key resistance $166.14 caps upside. Prefer bear put spread $150/$145 (rank 1) for defined risk. Invalidation above $166.14.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.