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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $165.16EOD only
Max Pain
$190.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.78
4.7% from close
Price Gap
+24.84
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
5.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
ORCL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

ORCL faces downside pressure from high vol, trending gamma, and spot well below $185 max pain. Negative dealer GEX (-$55M) amplifies sell-offs. Confidence at 6.5 supports bearish momentum toward gamma flip at $150.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5 from vol/gamma alignment; +2 for GEX supporting bearish; -1 due to 14.8% distance from MP; +0.5 for VIX 19. Flow mixed but net neutral.
Supports: High vol, trending gamma, spot below max pain, negative dealer gamma.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, wide distance to gamma flip.
📉Negative GEX (-$55M) amplifies bearish momentum.
⚠️Spot 4.8% above gamma flip ~$150 — break could accelerate selling.
📊Max pain at $185 vs spot ~$158, a 17% gap, weakens pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated, VIX at 19 supports continued high environment.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma; negative $54.9M GEX means dealers short gamma, amplifying moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow, net premium neutral; put heavy at $150.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~14.8% below max pain ($185), reducing magnetic pull.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Key levels span 2-week range; gamma flip and max pain are multi-week anchors.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$151.43$163.63
Test lower guardrail $151.43
Next 1 week
$146.70$168.35
Gamma flip ~$150 as support
Next 2 weeks
$142.80$172.25
Extended to $142.80 if breakdown

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-06-26); $185 (2026-07-02); $182 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $151.43/$163.63; 1w $146.70/$168.35
Support: $150.00 · $142.80
Resistance: $172.25
Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,122 (4.8% below spot)
Structural: Structural support at $150 (gamma flip), $142.80; resistance at $172.25, max pain $185.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-54.9M

DEX: +55.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$150 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,122 (4.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma (-$54.9M GEX) and net long delta (+55.4M shares). Gamma flip at $150—below that, dealer hedging intensifies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is rich relative to VIX (19), pricing in event risk and elevated volatility.

Term structure: Term structure elevated near-term, sloping down after weekly events.

Skew: Put skew elevated; short gamma risk below $150 favors bearish puts over credit spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$153M (net selling), P/C vol ratio ~1 (balanced); net selling of puts and calls suggests neutral positioning, but slightly bearish if put selling dominates.

Directional prints: 65.6 put 145 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.8, high; likely bought as bearish bet; preferred read: bearish. 52.1 put 157.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 4.5, notable; likely bought for downside; preferred read: bearish. 54.2 call 160 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 37, extreme; likely bought for upside; preferred read: bullish.

Unusual: 54.2 call 160 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 37, extreme; likely bought; unusual call activity; preferred read: bullish. 54.3 call 165 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 19.8, high; likely bought; unusual OTM call volume; preferred read: bullish. 65.6 put 145 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.8, high; likely bought; unusual OTM put with IV 65.6; preferred read: bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Reversal above $160 could trigger short squeeze.
!Earnings or macro event shifts sentiment.
!Dealer delta hedging may dampen moves near $150.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-24 $160.00/$140.00 put spread
Why now: Negative GEX and high put activity suggest continued downside; defined risk spread limits capital.
Reversal above $160 could trigger losses.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-24 $145.00 put
Why now: Bearish flow and negative GEX support put skew; high vol may expand.
Time decay if move stalls; reversal risk.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $160.00/$140.00 put spread
Buy 160/140 put spread to profit from further decline while limiting loss.
Why this play: Defined risk, targets continued downside with negative GEX and put activity.
Debit: $7.04-$8.61
Max loss: $8.61
BE: $151.39
Mgmt: Exit near max profit at $140 or if spot breaches $172.
Traders wanting capped risk and steady bearish exposure.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-24 $145.00 put
Buy $145 put to capture downside with leverage.
Why this play: Unlimited upside from bearish move, high vol may expand.
Debit: $4.41-$5.39
Max loss: $5.39
BE: $139.61
Mgmt: Monitor theta; exit if spot stabilizes above $160.
Aggressive traders aiming for larger gains.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot breaks below $150 (gamma flip) → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-24 $160/$140 put spread limit 7.04-8.61
IFSpot breaks below $142.80 → Enter long put: buy 2026-07-24 $145 put limit 4.41-5.39
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot rallies above $160 → Exit long put only; hold bear put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot rallies above $172.25 → Exit both bear put spread and long put

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, target gamma flip at $150. Entry: put spread below $150, long put below $142.80. Exit partial at $160, full at $172.25. Risks: reversal above $160 or macro event.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.