thetaOwl
HomeOptionsORCLReports

ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $192.64EOD only
Max Pain
$185.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.78
4.6% from close
Price Gap
-7.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
ORCL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with slight bearish lean. Spot above max pain and high vol suggest reversion to $185, but dealer gamma provides support. Range-bound between $175-$205.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16. Final 6.5.
Supports: Positive dealer gamma ($1.2M), DEX +56.5M shares long gamma, pin levels at $185/$195.
Conflicts: Flow mixed, spot above MP may drive lower, elevated vol risks break.
📌Max pain pins $185/$195 create strong magnetic levels for expiration.
📊Dealer gamma +$1.2M positive but small; not a strong floor.
🔻Spot 1.8% above max pain suggests potential mean reversion lower.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Vol is elevated vs typical range, consistent with recent earnings and macro uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma pinning near $185-$195 with +$1.2M positive gamma; spot above MP suggests pull may be resisted at these levels.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net premium context is mixed; put/call volumes not extremely skewed.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain pins ($185) may encourage drift lower but dealer gamma supports stability.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Gamma profile and max pain suggest pinning around $185-$195 for upcoming expirations; structure supports range-bound thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$181.47$195.20
Expect drift toward $185 within guardrails $181.47/$195.20.
Next 1 week
$175.33$201.33
Range-bound between $175.33 and $201.33 with pin at $185.
Next 2 weeks
$171.91$204.76
Wider range $171.91-$204.76; direction uncertain but gamma supports mean reversion.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-06-18); $195 (2026-06-26); $192 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $181.47/$195.20; 1w $175.33/$201.33
Support: $185.00 · $171.91
Resistance: $190.00 · $200.00 · $204.76
Structural: Support $185 (MP), $171.91 (technical); Resistance $190, $200, $204.76. Gamma pinning at $185/$195.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.2M

DEX: +56.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.2M positive, DEX +56.5M shares long gamma. No gamma flip within 30% of spot. Mildly supportive.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ORCL IV elevated relative to VIX, implying event premium. Rich for premium selling but risky.

Term structure: Likely moderately backwardated near term due to gamma concentration; check front vs back vol.

Skew: Put skew elevated given macro weakness; call skew flat. Opportunity in put credit spreads at $185 support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $14.3M, call volume heavy (P/C vol 0.52), net selling pressure.

Directional prints: 57.9 call 220 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 3.8 aggressive call buying; bullish if bought, but net selling context. Bought preferred. 51.4 put 182.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.2 significant put volume; bearish if bought, could be hedging. Bought preferred. 238.8 put 260 ITM 2026-06-18 — Deep ITM put with extreme IV; bearish spread or closing. Sold preferred.

Unusual: 238.8 put 260 ITM 2026-06-18 — Extremely high IV 238.8% on deep ITM put; unusual hedging or adjustment. 291.5 put 300 ITM 2026-06-18 — Very high IV 291.5% on deep OTM put; unusual bearish speculation. 51.2 call 192.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — High volume 4456 near-the-money call; unusual activity in net selling environment.

Risks & Catalysts

!Higher vol expansion if spot breaks below $185 support.
!Gap move through gamma flip if dealer hedges become aggressive.
!Unexpected earnings or macro catalyst could invalidate range.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $175.00/$165.00 put wing and $210.00/$230.00 call wing
Why now: High IV supports premium sale; net selling flow confirms range.
Gap beyond wings; volatility expansion.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $175.00/$165.00 put spread
Why now: High put IV and dealer gamma support; net selling pressure.
Breach of $185 support; gap down through spread.
Short strangleModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $170.00 put + sell $220.00 call
Why now: IV elevated, range-bound thesis, limited near-term catalysts.
Gap risk; tail events; unlimited loss potential.

Top Plays

#1
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $175.00/$165.00 put wing and $210.00/$230.00 call wing
Sell put and call wings around $175-$210, capturing theta decay.
Why this play: Best fits range-bound thesis with high IV; net selling flow supports premium collection.
Credit: $4.64-$5.68
Max loss: $14.32
BE: 169.32 / 215.68
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if breakout occurs.
Traders expecting ORCL to stay within $175-$210 range.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $175.00/$165.00 put spread
Sell $175/$165 put spread to collect premium with support at $185.
Why this play: Slight bearish lean supported by dealer gamma; limited risk.
Credit: $2.28-$2.79
Max loss: $7.21
BE: $172.21
Mgmt: Exit if ORCL breaks below $185 invalidation level.
Traders with bearish view but seeking defined risk.
#3
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $170.00 put + sell $220.00 call
Sell $170 put and $220 call to collect elevated premium.
Why this play: Captures high IV but unlimited risk; less preferred due to tail risk.
Credit: $6.18-$7.55
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 162.45 / 227.55
Mgmt: Monitor closely; consider rolling if moves toward strikes.
Aggressive traders comfortable with unlimited loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFORCL trades between $175 and $210 → Enter iron condor (IC1) with $175/$165 put wing and $210/$230 call wing at entry range $4.64-$5.68
Exit Triggers
EXITORCL breaks below $185 → Close put wing of IC1 to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Range-bound $175-$210; high IV supports premium selling. Favor IC1 entry on range extremes. Exit put wing if $185 support breaks.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.