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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $184.13EOD only

Max Pain

$185.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$10.55

5.7% from close

Price Gap

+0.87

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

ORCL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning dynamics and positive dealer gamma. Spot above MP and strong GEX support at $190 suggest limited downside. Vol high but flows bullish; look for drift toward resistance at $200, but remain cautious of gamma flip if spot breaks below $190.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16 supports elevated confidence.

Supports: Positive dealer gamma ($19.6M), bullish flow, spot above max pain, VIX low.
Conflicts: Vol is high, suggesting risk; spot 4.1% above MP; gamma flip at $190 could trigger selloff.

📈Bullish flow and positive GEX support $190 floor.

⚠️Gamma flip at $190; break below shifts dealer hedging.

🎯Max pain $185 for 6/18 expiry; pinning favors $190-200.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs historical range at 16 VIX and high stock vol; implied vol likely pricing in near-term events and large gamma.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Total GEX +$19.6M, strong positive gamma with flip at ~$190 (1.4% below spot). Dealer positioning supports pinning around $190-192 zones.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish premium flow driving dealer hedging; net positive gamma from call buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot currently above $193, above max pain $185 for nearest expiry; pinning toward $190-192 zone.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple OI peaks in near-term expiries creating pinning zones; high IV reflects event risk ahead of weekly and monthly expiries.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$183.86$201.41

Gamma support at 190, resistance at 200; vol high but pinning favors mean-reversion.

Next 2 weeks

$174.79$210.49

Wider range with gamma flip at 190; breakout above 210 or below 175 unlikely without catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-06-18); $192 (2026-06-26); $190 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $183.86/$201.41

Support: $190.00 · $185.00 · $174.79

Resistance: $200.00 · $210.00 · $210.49

Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,281 (1.4% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $185 (6/18), $192 (6/26), $190 (7/2). EM guardrails: 2d $183.86/$201.41. Support at 190, 185, 174.79; resistance at 200, 210, 210.49. Gamma flip ~$190.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+19.6M

DEX: +56.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$190 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 17,281 (1.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma positive, total GEX +$19.6M, DEX +56.2M shares. Gamma flip ~$190 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Stock IV is rich relative to VIX given single-stock event premium; options priced for ~±8% moves in near term.

Term structure: Forward skew is steep with higher vols in weekly expiries; term structure likely backwardated due to near-term event risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated relative to calls; potential to sell puts at gamma flip levels for premium collection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $30.85M, P/C vol ratio 0.36. Deep ITM put activity (IV >100%) suggests hedging, not directional flow.

Directional prints: 58.2 call 205 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.3x, 9496 vol vs 2851 OI; likely aggressive call buying, bullish. 55.7 call 197.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 3.9x, 1931 vol vs 501 OI; ITM call buying, bullish momentum. 55.7 call 210 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.5x, 1968 vol vs 801 OI; OTM call buying, bullish.

Unusual: 87.5 put 148 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 7.0x, 885 vol vs 127 OI; deep OTM put, unusual IV, likely bearish hedge. 129.1 put 260 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.8x, 524 vol vs 189 OI; deep ITM put, extreme IV, bearish hedge. 146.5 put 250 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.8x, 307 vol vs 111 OI; deep ITM put, extreme IV, bearish hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $190

!Vol high could lead to sharp moves

!Spot far from MP could attract pinning toward lower strike

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $210.00/$220.00 call spread Why now: Bullish bias, positive dealer gamma, strong support at $190.	Short call caps upside if rally exceeds $200.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-10 $170.00/$150.00 put spread Why now: Vol elevated, dealer gamma support at $190 limits downside.	Break below $190 could trigger gamma flip.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-10 $202.50 call / sell 2026-07-10 $172.50 put Why now: Flow shows aggressive call buying; pinning to $200.	Short put adds undefined downside risk below $190.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $210.00/$220.00 call spread

Captures upside drift to $200+ with defined risk.

Why this play: Best risk/reward; leverages bullish thesis and gamma support.

Debit: $1.57-$1.93

Max loss: $1.93

BE: $211.93

Mgmt: Exit below $190; target $220.

Moderate bullish traders.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-10 $202.50 call / sell 2026-07-10 $172.50 put

Long call / short put for leveraged bullish exposure.

Why this play: Exploits aggressive call flow and pinning; unlimited upside.

Debit: $3.31-$4.04

Max loss: $172.50

BE: $172.50

Mgmt: Roll down put at $190; take profit at $200+.

Aggressive high-conviction traders.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-10 $170.00/$150.00 put spread

Sells downside protection; gains if ORCL stays above $170.

Why this play: Alternative bullish play; benefits from vol decay and support.

Credit: $1.70-$2.07

Max loss: $17.93

BE: $167.93

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks $190; take profit at 50% max gain.

Income-focused traders.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF ORCL holds above $190 support and approaches $195 → THEN buy 2026-07-10 $210.00/$220.00 call spread within $1.57-$1.93

IFIF ORCL breaks above $200 with volume → THEN enter bullish risk reversal: buy $202.50 call, sell $172.50 put

Exit Triggers

EXITIF ORCL closes below $190 → THEN exit all bullish positions; invalidates thesis

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with dealer gamma support at $190 and resistance at $200. Pinning dynamics favor drift toward $200. Top play is bull call spread. Invalidation at $190. Hold into Sept earnings.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.