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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $188.33EOD only

Max Pain

$185.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.87

3.6% from close

Price Gap

-3.33

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

ORCL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias pre-earnings: negative GEX ($-28.7M) and dealer short gamma amplify downside; spot near $185 MP; high vol but mixed flow; confidence 8.5/10.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Supports: GEX/flow alignment; spot near MP; VIX 18 moderate
Conflicts: Mixed flow; gamma flip N/A; earnings binary

📉GEX -$28.7M short gamma amplifies downside

🎯Spot near $185 MP pin for 6/18

📅Earnings 6/18; high IV pre-event

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV pre-earnings; expects large move.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$28.7M short gamma amplifies moves; trending regime.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow but GEX/flow aligned per confidence.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot near $185 max pain for 6/18.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Earnings 6/18 drive near-term action.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$178.61$188.44

MP pin at $185; dealer hedging may pin.

Next 1 week

$171.55$195.50

Post-earnings drift lower if miss; support $171.55.

Next 2 weeks

$167.93$199.13

Resistance $199.13; trend may weaken.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-06-18); $192 (2026-06-26); $190 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $178.61/$188.44; 1w $171.55/$195.50

Support: $167.93

Resistance: $185.00 · $190.00 · $199.13

Structural: Support $167.93; resistance $185/$190/$199.13; gamma flip N/A.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-28.7M

DEX: +59.4M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$28.7M, DEX +59.4M shares; short gamma, long delta; no gamma flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX due to earnings; post-event collapse likely.

Term structure: Inverted near event; backmonth elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling strangles post-event.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net directional premium -$226.7M, put/call vol ratio 1.06, heavy put buying dominates.

Directional prints: 128.1 put 220 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 10008 vs OI 2943 (3.4x), aggressive put buying at deep ITM strike, bearish positioning or hedge demand. 193.4 put 240 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 9854 vs OI 1236 (8x), aggressive put buying at deep ITM strike, bearish positioning or hedge demand.

Unusual: 193.4 put 240 ITM 2026-06-18 — Highest volume put (9854), vol/OI 8.0, extreme activity at deep ITM strike. 128.1 put 220 ITM 2026-06-18 — Second highest volume put (10008), vol/OI 3.4, significant put buying. 289.6 put 250 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 8.6 on 915 vol, extreme ratio despite lower volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings miss.

!Vol collapse.

!Dealer flip to long gamma.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put calendar	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-02 $175.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $175.00 put Why now: Put calendar captures term structure premium and directional downside; short leg benefits from elevated vol before earnings, long leg hedges and profits if sell-off continues.	Earnings miss could cause vol crush; if stock rallies, both legs may lose; need sustained downside.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $170.00/$160.00 put spread Why now: Bear put spread caps risk, targets $175-170; 30 DTE aligns with near-term bearish lean.	Loss limited to debit; theta and IV contraction hurt.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $170.00 put Why now: High put flow and short gamma favor continued decline; 30 DTE captures near-term move.	Max loss = premium; theta decay if no move.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $170.00/$160.00 put spread

Capped-risk bearish bet on ORCL decline to $160-170.

Why this play: Aligned with near-term bearish lean and negative GEX; defined risk with high reward-to-risk.

Debit: $2.16-$2.65

Max loss: $2.65

BE: $167.35

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or at invalidation above $185.

Traders wanting defined risk and near-term downside exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-17 $170.00 put

Uncapped bearish position with potential for large gains if sell-off accelerates.

Why this play: Heavy put flow and dealer short gamma favor continued decline; simple directional play.

Debit: $4.55-$5.56

Max loss: $5.56

BE: $164.44

Mgmt: Set stop at $185; consider taking profits on 50% move.

Aggressive traders seeking maximum downside leverage.

Put Calendar

Sell 2026-07-02 $175.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $175.00 put

Neutral-to-bearish volatility play using calendar spread.

Why this play: Captures term structure premium; short leg benefits from elevated vol pre-earnings.

Debit: $10.89-$13.31

Max loss: $13.31

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor vol; close if short leg gains exceed 50% of premium.

Traders expecting volatility contraction after earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF ORCL breaks below $182 with bearish vol skew → Enter bear put spread 170/160 for $2.16-$2.65

IFIF ORCL drops to $178 and put flow persists → Buy long put $170 for $4.55-$5.56

IFIF ORCL stalls near $180 and implied vol elevated → Sell put calendar: short Jul $175 put, long Sep $175 put for $10.89-$13.31

Exit Triggers

EXITIF ORCL rallies above $185 → Close all bearish plays

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias pre-earnings; key trigger break below $182 for bear put spread; exit all above $185 invalidation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.