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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $184.13EOD only
Max Pain
$185.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.55
5.7% from close
Price Gap
+0.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
53
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
ORCL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

ORCL is positioned for a moderate bullish push within the 1w range, supported by broad market strength and high dealer gamma that amplifies directional moves. However, spot trading below max pain ($190) and mixed flow introduce caution. Confidence is high at 7.5, driven by strong GEX/flow alignment, partially offset by the spot-vs-MP gap.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -0.5 spot 3.1% below MP; +1 VIX 18
Supports: Market tailwind (SPY +0.54%, QQQ +0.59%), trending gamma regime, high vol (VIX 18) expanding options premiums
Conflicts: Spot below max pain $190, mixed flow (net premium unclear), negative gamma flip at $180
🟢Trending gamma accelerates momentum; hold directional bias with the trend.
⚠️Spot 3.1% below MP; pin risk to $190 on expiry could cap upside.
📊Dealer short gamma ($-7.7M) amplifies moves; expect sharp reactions at $180 flip.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV relative to recent history; VIX 17.68 supports elevated options premiums, favoring directional plays.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma regime with negative dealer gamma ($-7.7M) - dealers amplify price moves, creating momentum dynamics.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow - net premium context not clear; put/call ratio ambiguous, but total volume suggests institutional hedging.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot trading below max pain $190 by ~3.1%; gamma flip at $180 poses nearby support risk.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Next expiry is 2026-06-12 (same week); high gamma and pin activity focus on weekly expiration, making thesis short-term event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$173.58$194.68
Range $173.58-$194.68; expect drift toward upper half if $190 breaks; else test $180 support.
Next 2 weeks
$168.58$199.68
Range $168.58-$199.68; structural resistance at $200; bias up but slower.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $190 (2026-06-12); $185 (2026-06-18); $192 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $173.58/$194.68
Support: $180.00 · $168.58
Resistance: $190.00 · $199.68 · $200.00
Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,969 (2.2% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $190 (6/12), $185 (6/18), $192 (6/26). Em guardrails: 1w $173.58/$194.68. Support: 180, 168.58. Resistance: 190, 199.68, 200. Gamma flip: ~$180.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-7.7M

DEX: +58.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$180 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,969 (2.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX $-7.7M (short gamma); DEX +58.8M shares (long delta). Gamma flip at ~$180, based on put OI concentration 2.2% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ORCL IV is elevated relative to VIX (18), indicating rich implied vol. High vol favors premium selling if range holds, but supports directional options.

Term structure: Term structure shows backwardation for near-dated expiries due to event premium; next week vol higher than 2-week vol.

Skew: Put skew elevated at $180 strike (gamma flip); potential opportunity in bear put spreads if spot breaks below support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$3.89M (net selling of premium) despite put/call ratio 0.73 (more calls), suggesting sold calls or puts outweigh bought premium.

Directional prints: 40.5 call 182.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 4.7, IV 40.5%, OTM call bought for upside, bullish. 55.2 put 165 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.4, IV 55.2%, OTM put bought for downside, defensive bearish.

Unusual: 55.2 put 165 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.4 extreme, OTM put high IV, aggressive hedging. 102.7 put 110 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 5.2, deep OTM put very high IV, crash protection. 40.5 call 182.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 4.7, large OTM call volume, bought for near-term upside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings or corporate events before next expiry
!Macro reversal (SPY/QQQ turn negative)
!Gamma flip at $180 triggers sharp selloff
!Max pain pin to $190 limits upside

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-26 $195.00/$207.50 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread to capture upside from current levels with limited capital at risk.
Upside capped; expiration before earnings. If spot drops, max loss is debit paid.
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-26 $195.00 call
Why now: Simple bullish bet with convexity; premium paid as max loss. Suitable for near-term directional move.
Time decay and IV contraction can hurt; spot must rise to profit.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $170.00/$160.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk premium collection on bullish outlook; benefit from time decay if spot stays above short strike.
Sharp downside break below short strike can cause losses; max loss defined.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $195.00/$207.50 call spread
Capture upside from current levels to $207.50 with defined-risk debit spread.
Why this play: Best fit for moderate bullish thesis with limited capital at risk and defined max loss.
Debit: $2.07-$2.54
Max loss: $2.54
BE: $197.54
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $180 or at 50% max gain.
Traders seeking upside with capped risk and lower cost.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-06-26 $195.00 call
Direct bullish bet with unlimited upside potential, max loss limited to premium paid.
Why this play: Simple convex play for aggressive bullish move; high gamma near spot.
Debit: $3.44-$4.21
Max loss: $4.21
BE: $199.21
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $180; consider rolling if approaching expiry OTM.
Aggressive traders comfortable with higher premium and time decay.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $170.00/$160.00 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium, benefiting from time decay if spot stays above $170.
Why this play: Generates premium on bullish outlook with defined risk below $170.
Credit: $1.33-$1.62
Max loss: $8.38
BE: $168.38
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches short strike; manage assignment risk.
Traders expecting sideways to bullish movement, wanting income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds $180 and breaks above $190 (priority 1) → Enter Bull Call Spread (orcl_001): buy $195/$207.5 call spread in $2.07-$2.54
IFBull Call Spread not triggered and spot holds $180 with strong momentum clearing $190 (priority 2) → Enter Long Call (orcl_002): buy $195 call in $3.44-$4.21
IFSpot stays above $180, DTE >5, and daily theta decay >1% of premium → Enter Put Credit Spread (orcl_003): sell $170/$160 put spread in $1.33-$1.62
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot breaks below $180 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Moderate bullish in 1w range. Prefer Bull Call Spread (priority 1). Entry on breakout above $190; long call if bull call not filled. Put credit spread if DTE >5 and theta decay >1% daily. Invalidation at $180.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.