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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $128.64EOD only
Max Pain
$133.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.80
6.8% from close
Price Gap
+4.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 10, 2026 close
MSTR AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for April 10, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
5.0

out of 10

Score 5 because multiple strong, aligned microstructure signals (dealer gamma pinning + concentrated strikes) support a short-dated range trade, but conviction is capped by two binary/contradictory inputs: heavy institutional put/protective flow and a high-volatility earnings regime that can re-rate IV and produce rapid directional moves that invalidate short-premium exposure.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market is pinned in the $125–$132 band into the short-dated window: dealer gamma and concentrated positioning create a magnet that favors range-bound action and makes defined-risk premium-selling attractive into expiry.

Where They Diverge

Flow and earnings views conflict — while gamma/positioning and theta favor short premium and a pin, institutional flow signals (put-heavy / protective buying) and the earnings term structure imply a meaningful asymmetric downside risk that would break the pin; in other words, positioning is supportive but real-money downside hedging would undermine the short-premium thesis if activated.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell Apr 17 $125/$120 put spread for a net credit (defined-risk trade to collect premium while respecting the pin).

Key Risk

A decisive break below $120 before Apr 17 (trigger: sustained trade/print and follow-through volume) would flip dealer positioning, negate the pin, and accelerate downside toward the $115 support gap — this scenario invalidates the short-premium thesis.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for MSTR for 2026-04-08. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.