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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.85EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.73
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+5.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
35
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
MSTR AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
6.0

out of 10

Score 6 because multiple strong alignment signals (GEX pin, spot at max-pain, concentrated call wall) favor the near-term magnet, but high ATM IV, mixed institutional flow and an imminent binary/event window materially raise the chance of a fast invalidation, preventing a higher conviction.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market is pinned near $124-$125 short-term with dealer short-gamma and concentrated positioning making that level the focal point; momentum is capped into the $130-$140 call wall so upside is constrained while premiums remain elevated.

Where They Diverge

Flow signals of institutional accumulation and buy-side prints support a continuation of the pin, but the earnings/term-structure view and very high front‑month IV imply a market pricing for a post-event mean-reversion — the latter directly undermines a confident bullish continuation. Theta recommends premium harvesting into the pin while directional suggests selective long exposure; those are complementary, not conflicting, but the event-driven thesis can negate both if realized.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell Apr 10 $125/$128 call spread for ~$1.50 credit (theta-oriented defined-risk income, expires into the pin).

Key Risk

A close below $120 (two consecutive 5‑min closes under $120 or a daily close below $120) would flip dealer gamma positioning, remove the $124‑125 magnet and trigger accelerated downside toward the $115 gap, invalidating the pin thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.