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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $165.81EOD only

Max Pain

$170.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.35

4.4% from close

Price Gap

+4.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.90

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MSTR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 massive net put premium persists; +1 spot below MP & GEX pinning; -1 significant call volume/activity near spot

Watch next session: $125C 4/10 OI build for potential breakout; Follow-up in $115P 4/10 for near-term support test; Any roll or expansion of the $310P 6/18 position

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$287.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.61 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.86 — moderate put lean

The bearish institutional hedging regime persists, defined by massive net put premium. However, a significant surge in near-dated, near-the-money call volume creates a conflicting tactical signal, suggesting a potential battle between structural downside protection and a speculative rally attempt.

Notable Prints

MSTR 4/10 $125 Call

Vol: 26,381

OI: 4,594

Vol/OI: 5.7x

IV: 64.1%

Notional: ~$2.6M (premium: ~$100/contract est.)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying targeting a move above max pain ($125 for 4/2, $127 for 4/10).

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (neutral/bearish, betting against a rally).

Read-through: This is the dominant volume print of the day. The 4.2% OTM strike targeting the nearest max pain levels, combined with similar volume in the $132C, suggests a concentrated speculative bet on an imminent rally. Given the flow context, this is likely bought, representing the most significant bullish counter-flow to the institutional put hedging.

MSTR 4/10 $132 Call

Vol: 26,096

OI: 5,392

Vol/OI: 4.8x

IV: 64.0%

Notional: ~$2.6M (premium: ~$100/contract est.)

Intent: Upside speculation, likely part of a vertical spread or multi-strike call buying campaign with the $125C.

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral/bearish).

Read-through: Paired with the $125C flow, this indicates buyers are targeting a move through the $130-$135 OI call wall cluster. The volume/OI build is aggressive and fresh, marking a clear attempt to challenge overhead resistance.

MSTR 4/10 $5 Put

Vol: 1,511

OI: 180

Vol/OI: 8.4x

IV: 217.2%

Notional: ~$75.6M (premium: ~$50,000/contract est.)

Intent: Institutional tail-risk hedging or volatility sale.

Dual read: Sold for massive premium (neutral/bullish) or bought for catastrophic protection (bearish).

Read-through: This is a legacy or synthetic position, not a new directional bet. The astronomical IV and negligible intrinsic value point to this being a short put position (premium sold) as part of a larger structured trade, likely contributing to the massive net put premium. It's noise for directional flow but critical for understanding the gross premium skew.

MSTR 6/18 $310 Put

Vol: 350

OI: 100

Vol/OI: 3.5x

IV: 82.2%

Notional: ~$8.5M (premium: ~$24,200/contract est.)

Intent: Long-dated, far OTM protective put purchase.

Dual read: Bought for crash protection (bearish) or sold for premium (neutral/bullish).

Read-through: A continuation of the institutional hedging theme from the prior report. Buying 159% OTM protection 2.5 months out signals persistent concern over a major downside event, aligning with the bearish structural flow. The high notional value confirms this is a meaningful institutional position.

MSTR 4/10 $115 Put

Vol: 3,195

OI: 1,353

Vol/OI: 2.4x

IV: 70.3%

Notional: ~$0.6M (premium: ~$200/contract est.)

Intent: Near-term directional put buying or hedge against a drop below spot.

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (neutral/bullish).

Read-through: With spot at $119.83, this 4% OTM put represents a bet on a near-term breakdown. Given the overall put-heavy premium flow, this is more likely bought protection, establishing a local support target just below current price.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Major OI builds in 4/10 $125C and $132C, indicating fresh speculative long interest targeting a breakout above $130.

Put additions: Persistent far OTM hedging in 6/18 ($310P) and the massive legacy/short put positions at $5. Protective $115P 4/10 added near-term.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$24.9M) indicates pinning/mean reversion. Spot remains well below nearest max pain ($119.83 vs $125 for 4/2), supporting the pinning-to-the-downside thesis aligned with put flow.

OI clusters: Major call walls at $135 (33K OI), $140 (33K OI), $130 (24K OI). Major put support at $100 (25K OI). The new $125C and $132C OI builds are creating a nearer-term call cluster.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming in premium terms. The net put premium of -$287M, driven by ultra-OTM strikes ($315, $325, $420, etc.), confirms institutional tail-risk hedging remains the dominant positioning theme.

Max pain context: Spot ($119.83) is 4.1% below the 4/2 max pain ($125) and 5.6% below the 4/10 MP ($127). The overall MP trend continues to fall across expiries ($137 → $120), indicating options positioning is shifting to lower strike anchors, supportive of a bearish drift.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive volume in $125C and $132C 4/10 is a SIGNAL — it represents a concentrated, high-volume speculative bet against the prevailing bearish structure.

~The $5 Put activity across multiple expiries is extreme NOISE — these are legacy positions, likely short puts or part of synthetic longs, and their high premium skews net premium calculations but does not reflect new directional intent.

~High call volume (P/C 0.61) is partially noise, but the specific, large OI builds in near-dated calls are meaningful and must be respected as a counter-flow signal.

~The top premium flow strikes ($315P, $325P, etc.) are signals of institutional hedging, but their extreme OTM nature means they act more as volatility/portfolio insurance than direct price targets.

Key Conclusions

⚔️A tactical battle is emerging: massive structural put hedging vs. aggressive near-dated call speculation.

🏛️Institutional bearish hedging remains intact (-$287M net premium), defining the primary flow regime.

🚀The surge in 4/10 $125C and $132C volume is the most significant bullish flow signal in recent sessions, targeting a break above $130.

📌Spot pinned below max pain with positive GEX favors mean reversion lower, putting the new call buys immediately at risk.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.