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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $148.94EOD only

Max Pain

$132.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.83

3.2% from close

Price Gap

-16.94

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.83

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

MSTR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Watch next session: Repeat/block prints in the $145 and $150 calls (MSTR260424C00145000 and MSTR260417C00150000) to confirm dealer hedging buys; Any clustering of prints at $142 put (MSTR260424P00142000) or additional 4/17 puts that push price toward $136.86

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$86.0M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.50

P/C OI ratio: 0.83

Net premium remains materially bearish (deterministic -$86.0M), but intraday flow shows outsized call demand concentrated not only at $140–$145 but also a very large $150 call trade (4/17 expiry, vol=32,432) that meaningfully increases short-term call exposure. The effect is a mixed read: structural premium is negative, yet large call prints are amplifying dealer positive GEX pinning in the 135–142 band and extending upside hedging pressure toward $150 unless put flow clusters counter that.

Notable Prints

MSTR260417C00150000

Vol: 32,432

OI: 17,121

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 66.7%

Notional: ~$3.92M

Intent: Large directional call buying or block/roll into the 4/17 expiry; significant enough to change dealer hedging posture near $150.

Dual read: Could be a broken-up block for spreads or an opening buy; volume magnitude relative to OI and the large OI base at $150 (17,121) means it likely altered intraday dealer delta hedges.

Read-through: Increases short-term upside exposure and dealer gamma hedging toward the $150 area, reinforcing pinning pressure and potentially supporting price if follow-up prints continue.

MSTR260424C00145000

Vol: 18,615

OI: 2,560

Vol/OI: 7.3x

IV: 64.1%

Notional: ~$10.07M

Intent: Fresh directional call buying into the 4/24 expiry at $145; large and likely opening exposure.

Dual read: High vol/OI favors new buys over routine rolls; could be part of a larger structured exposure but the scale points to genuine bullish allocation.

Read-through: Supports near-term upside and increases dealer demand to buy stock on deltas, strengthening the pin around 140–145.

MSTR260417P00137000

Vol: 4,223

OI: 785

Vol/OI: 5.4x

IV: 62.3%

Notional: ~$384K

Intent: Near-term protective put buying into the 4/17 expiry (5% OTM) — genuine short-dated hedge demand.

Dual read: Could be protective puts by existing holders or speculative downside bets; proximity to expiry and vol/OI make it a meaningful hedging signal.

Read-through: Concentrated short-dated downside protection that would force dealer gamma buys of stock on cracks and could accelerate downside if more prints cluster.

MSTR260417P00138000

Vol: 3,026

OI: 686

Vol/OI: 4.4x

IV: 62.0%

Notional: ~$339K

Intent: Additional short-dated downside protection (4/17 expiry) complementing the $137 puts.

Dual read: Similar to $137 puts; adds credible near-term hedging pressure rather than being noise.

Read-through: Makes the short-dated put cohort significant; a band of protection at $136–$138 increases the chance of dealer gamma activity in the event of a move lower.

MSTR260424P00142000

Vol: 230

OI: 111

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 62.7%

Notional: ~$119.6K

Intent: Immediate downside hedge one percent below spot into the 4/24 expiry; small absolute size but high relevance given 1% moneyness.

Dual read: Could be an individual protective purchase; if additional prints appear here it would meaningfully shift short-term tilt bearish and force hedging flows.

Read-through: Flag as a potential inflection: clustered activity at $142 put would reduce dealers' ability/desire to pin above $140 and could precipitate a short-term move toward the 2d EM floor.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Concentrated additions at $140–$150 (heavy prints at $140, $142, $145 and the very large $150 call trade) indicate institutions are layering upside exposure in near-term expiries; the $150 activity materially increases short-term call exposure versus earlier read.

Put additions: Active short-dated protective buying at $136–$138 (4/17) and a near-spot $142 put (4/24) show institutions are simultaneously hedging immediate downside; structural put OI remains concentrated far below (100/90/75), but the short-dated put cohort is now non-trivial.

GEX/DEX consistency: Flow still aligns with positive GEX (+$146.1M) but the $150 call print increases dealer hedging demands at higher strikes (reinforcing GEX pinning upward pressure toward $150), while concentrated short-dated puts create localized gamma friction that makes the pin more fragile to put clustering.

OI clusters: Largest call OI clusters remain at $135 (45,893), $142 (38,567) and $140 (25,596) forming a near-term magnet; the $150 call print pushes incremental attention to the $150 node (17,121 OI), which can act as a secondary resistance-turned-target if calls continue to print.

Hedging evidence: Yes : simultaneous fresh call buys (including the $150 block-size trade) and short-dated puts indicate institutions are adding upside exposure while buying near-term protection (collar-like behavior). Dealers will need to buy stock on gamma and deltas for the call flow but may sell into strength if put clustering forces rebalancing.

Max pain context: Max pain for the next two expiries ($131 on 4/17 and $135 on 4/24) sits well below spot; combined with current call OI concentration near 135–142 it suggests dealers will be incentivized to pin/defend the 135–142 band into these expiries unless large directional flow forces break it.

Signal vs Noise

~Very large reported volumes at $150 call (MSTR260417C00150000) and the $145 call (MSTR260424C00145000) may include spread activity or block trades being broken up — treat single-day volume spikes as potentially spread-driven unless open interest jumps materially.

~Far-OTM structural puts (e.g., $75, $90, $100) represent long-term floors and are not immediate directional signals for next-week moves — their presence biases long-term skew but is not actionable for intraday/weekly direction.

~Some small prints (e.g., $112 put, $124 put) have elevated IV and moderate vol/OI and are likely tactical hedges or opportunistic speculation rather than broad repositioning.

Key Conclusions

🔁Mixed flow: large net bearish premium (-$86.0M) coexists with concentrated near-term call demand at $140–$145 creating a pinning regime between $135–$142 (GEX +$146.1M). Watch for follow-through in those call strikes to signal bullish dealer-hedge support.

🐂If $145 calls keep printing and price holds above the 2d EM lower bound $136.86, dealers will likely remain long gamma and stock/bid support should persist into Friday expiry.

🐻Significant near-dated put flow at $136–$138 and the spike at $133 are hedge signals — a pickup in put follow-through would likely break the pin and open a faster move toward the $131 max pain level.

Read the Flow analysis for MSTR for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.