thetaOwl

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $166.52EOD only
Max Pain
$140.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$14.83
8.9% from close
Price Gap
-26.52
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
MSTR Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Large positive GEX (+$97.7M), heavy call prints (May 200/220) and +63.5M dex share buying; regime flow labeled Bullish; net premium skew toward calls.
Invalidation: Concentrated short‑dated put flow (Apr 24 strikes 152.5–170) and elevated put-call OI ratio (~0.80) could force downside pinning; spot > MP by ~17.8%.
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 17.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

Watch next session: Price reaction to Apr 24 160–170 put strikes; IV moves on short-dated puts and large May calls; GEX/dex deltas and any rapid reduction in positive GEX; Price convergence toward/away from Max Pain

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$188.3M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.42

P/C OI ratio: 0.80

Positive flow and large call demand drive a bullish bias despite short‑dated put concentration that could cap upside near Apr 24 strikes.

Notable Prints

#1
MSTR 2026-04-24 $162.50 Put
Vol: 7,163
OI: 1,117
Vol/OI: 6.4x
IV: 76.3%
Notional: ~$1.9M
Intent: protective/downside hedge
Dual read: sell-side hedging possible

Read-through: concentrated short-dated put demand near spot

#2
MSTR 2026-05-01 $220.00 Call
Vol: 11,420
OI: 1,807
Vol/OI: 6.3x
IV: 99.7%
Notional: ~$1.5M
Intent: speculative upside or call spread
Dual read: flow could be dealer-hedge vs buyer

Read-through: higher strike call demand; extended upside interest

#3
MSTR 2026-04-24 $160.00 Put
Vol: 8,158
OI: 1,721
Vol/OI: 4.7x
IV: 76.5%
Notional: ~$1.6M
Intent: protective put or bearish bet
Dual read: could be short-put/income sell

Read-through: near-term downside focus; pinning risk

#4
MSTR 2026-05-01 $167.50 Call
Vol: 1,082
OI: 229
Vol/OI: 4.7x
IV: 77.1%
Notional: ~$1.2M
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

#5
MSTR 2026-04-24 $167.50 Put
Vol: 1,987
OI: 433
Vol/OI: 4.6x
IV: 77.8%
Notional: ~$934K
Intent: Unclear flow intent

Read-through: Needs contextual interpretation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Heavy May calls at 200 (OI 3920) and 220 (OI 1807); smaller May strikes 162.5–167.5

Put additions: Concentrated Apr near‑term puts 160–170 (OI 1721,1117,808) and 152.5–162.5 — defensive/short‑term hedges

GEX/DEX consistency: GEX +$97.7M and DEX +63.5M skew bullish, but near‑dated elevated IV and heavy weekly expiry flow can bias these metrics; treat bullish signal as conditional and monitor roll/weekly noise.

OI clusters: Largest OI: May 200C, May 220C; Apr 160–170P cluster; elevated IV in near‑dated strikes

Hedging evidence: Large near‑dated put prints + big call buys implies collars/hedged upside and short‑term downside protection

Max pain context: Spot ~17.8% above MP; pinning is a possible near‑term risk rather than certain — monitor dealer hedging/delta, rollover activity and expiry flows for confirmation

Signal vs Noise

~Signal: sizable May 200/220 call flow = institutional bullish directional interest (conditional)
~Signal: Apr 160–170 put cluster = active short‑term hedging/pinning pressure
~Signal: GEX and DEX net positive but may be skewed by weekly/near‑dated flow
~Noise: elevated near‑dated IV and heavy weekly expiries can exaggerate directional readouts

Key Conclusions

📌Institutional skew: large May calls funded alongside concentrated Apr puts — suggests hedged upside; bullish bias conditional on rollover/expiry dynamics.
⚠️Apr put cluster creates possible pinning risk into expiries; monitor dealer delta/hedging and rollover activity for confirmation.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.