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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $371.33EOD only
Max Pain
$370.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$27.25
7.3% from close
Price Gap
-1.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
LRCX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

LRCX in high-vol pinning regime with spot above max pain $370. Positive dealer gamma and strong GEX/flow alignment suggest downward drift to $370 over 2 days, then toward $340-$350 in 1-2 weeks. High confidence.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive pinning, +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP, +0.5 VIX 19 = 9.
Supports: Positive GEX pinning, flow alignment, spot near max pain, VIX supportive.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; high vol could trigger large unexpected moves.
📌Max pain $370 (6/26) with strong gamma pinning acts as downward magnet.
⚡High vol + positive GEX implies sharp but pinned price action.
🛡️Gamma flip at $340 provides key support zone for bearish targets.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated, VIX ~18.6; ticker vol high, indicating event risk (likely earnings).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$4.2M positive; gamma flip ~$340 (9.3% below spot); dealer hedging pins toward max pain $370.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; no clear directional flow signal.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain $370, creating downward magnet effect for pinning.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol and positive gamma with nearby flip point suggest event-driven pin action around 6/26 expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$351.52$398.07
Downward drift to $370 pin; support at $351.52.
Next 1 week
$336.72$412.87
Approach $340 support; resistance at $400.
Next 2 weeks
$324.97$424.62
Test $324.97-$340; resistance at $424.62.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $370 (2026-06-26); $350 (2026-07-02); $350 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 2d $351.52/$398.07; 1w $336.72/$412.87
Support: $370.00 · $340.00 · $324.97
Resistance: $400.00 · $424.62
Gamma flip: ~$340.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,668 (9.3% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $370 (6/26), $350 (7/2,7/10). Support $370, $340, $324.97. Resistance $400, $424.62. Gamma flip at $340. EM guardrails: 2d $351.52/$398.07, 1w $336.72/$412.87.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.2M

DEX: +18.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$340 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,668 (9.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$4.2M, DEX +18.7M shares. Gamma flip at ~$340 (9.3% below spot). Dealers hedge to pin price near max pain $370.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX ~18.6; event premium priced in.

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated, likely backwardated with decay post-expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts near $340 support could be opportunistic if pin thesis holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $47.7M; P/C vol ratio 0.82, bullish.

Directional prints: 85.6 call 385 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 17.8, aggressive call buying; likely long calls. 82.6 call 340 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.2, ITM call buying; bullish.

Unusual: 85.6 call 385 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 17.8, aggressive call buying; likely long calls. 91.9 put 250 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 6.2, unusual put buying; bearish hedge or outright. 79.4 call 395 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.8, call buying; bullish speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Event risk (earnings?) could cause IV crush or surprise move.
!Gamma flip below $340 would shift dealer positioning.
!High vol amplifies any news-driven breakout.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-26 $370.00/$350.00 put spread
Why now: High vol, spot above max pain, dealer gamma bearish.
Underlying rallies above $370. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2025-01-17 $370.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $370.00.; short_put: resolved contract 2025-01-17 $350.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $350.00.

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread $370/$350
Buy 2026-06-26 $370.00/$350.00 put spread
Exploits downward drift to $340-$350 via high-vol pinning regime.
Why this play: Only eligible candidate aligned with bearish thesis and max pain drift.
Debit: $5.04-$6.16
Max loss: $6.16
BE: $363.84
Mgmt: Exit at target $350 or stop loss if spot breaches $400. Manage gamma risk near expiry.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure ahead of earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF LRCX spot stays below $385 and $400 holds as resistance → THEN buy 2026-06-26 $370/$350 put spread near $5.60
Exit Triggers
EXITIF LRCX spot reaches $350 → THEN close put spread for max gain ~$13.84
EXITIF LRCX spot breaks above $400 → THEN close put spread to limit loss at $6.16

Tactical Summary

Bearish drift to $350 in 1-2 weeks. High vol pinning. Max pain $370. Entry bear put spread $370/$350 near $5.60. Target $350, stop $400.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.