thetaOwl
HomeOptionsLRCXReports

LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $389.04EOD only
Max Pain
$347.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$34.45
8.9% from close
Price Gap
-41.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.32
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
LRCX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong dealer gamma pinning near $370 and wide 1w range $364-454. Spot 10.7% above MP is a caution but positive GEX $7.4M limits downside. Momentum favors drift toward upper range over next 1-2 weeks.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17. Net 8.
Supports: Positive dealer gamma, max pain $370, wide 1w range $364-454, VIX 17 low.
Conflicts: Spot 10.7% above MP, mixed flow, no catalyst.
📌Positive GEX $7.4M pinning spot near $370 this week.
⚠️Spot at ~$409 vs MP $370; 10.7% above, risk of reversion.
📊VIX 17.28; ticker IV elevated, event premium embedded.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol vs VIX; IV elevated due to sector uncertainty and event risk.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $7.4M; strong pinning at $370 (Jun26) and $340 (Jul2); gamma flip at $340.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; put volume elevated but not extreme, call interest building.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$409; 10.7% above MP $370; above gamma flip $340; within 1w range $364-454.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend 2 weeks; structural dealer positioning supports sustained direction.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$364.57$454.52
Dealer pinning at $370 limits downside; upside to $454 prob.
Next 2 weeks
$353.24$465.84
Expiry shift may weaken pinning; resistance at $465.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $370 (2026-06-26); $340 (2026-07-02); $345 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $364.57/$454.52
Support: $370.00 · $353.24
Resistance: $417.50 · $465.84
Gamma flip: ~$340.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,657 (17.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain $370 (Jun26) / $340 (Jul2) / $345 (Jul10); 1w range $364-454; support $370, $353; resistance $417, $465; gamma flip $340.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+7.4M

DEX: +18.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$340 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,657 (17.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$7.4M; DEX +18.8M shares; gamma flip ~$340; pinning at $370.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated vs VIX 17.28, implying event risk premium.

Term structure: Upward sloping near expiry; slight kink at Jun26 due to OPEX.

Skew: Put skew steep; consider buy-writes for income.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Positive $75.4M net premium; P/C vol 0.97 (call-skewed) but OI 1.09 (put-skewed).

Directional prints: 91.4 put 380 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.7x elevated; likely bought for downside. Prefer bearish. 85.4 call 420 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.1x above avg; likely bought for upside. Prefer bullish.

Unusual: 121.2 put 71 OTM 2027-01-15 — Deep OTM Jan 2027 put with vol/OI 1.9x and extreme IV; unusual long-dated tail protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reversion to $370 MP if momentum fades.
!Gamma flip at $340 if selloff accelerates.
!IV compression if no catalyst materializes.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $402.50/$412.50 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias with positive GEX supports upside; defined risk limits downside if momentum fades.
Max loss if spot stays below 400 at expiration; IV compression hurts long premium.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $417.50 call / buy 2026-07-02 $415.00 call
Why now: Earnings catalyst and vol skew favor longer-dated long call; short premium decays quickly.
If spot drops, long call loses more than short gains; short call may cap upside.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $402.50/$412.50 call spread
Captures upside drift with limited capital at risk.
Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and positive GEX, defined risk limits downside if momentum fades.
Debit: $4.84-$5.91
Max loss: $5.91
BE: $408.41
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $370 invalidation level or near expiration if max profit reached.
Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure ahead of earnings.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $417.50 call / buy 2026-07-02 $415.00 call
Combines short-term premium sell with longer-dated long call for net vega and theta advantage.
Why this play: Exploits vol skew and earnings catalyst; short premium decays quickly benefiting from time decay.
Debit: $6.62-$8.09
Max loss: $8.09
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close if spot trades below $370 or if short call is tested; monitor gamma risk near earnings.
Traders expecting moderate upside and vol contraction post-earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot > $370 with bullish momentum → Buy Bull Call Spread: 2026-06-26 $402.50/$412.50 call spread near $5.38
IFSpot holds above $370 and front-month IV > back-month IV by ≥2 vol pts → Initiate Call Diagonal: Sell 2026-06-26 $417.50 call / buy 2026-07-02 $415.00 call near $7.36
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot reaches $417.50 resistance or 1w range high near $454 → Take profit on call diagonal; monitor bull call spread
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot drops below $370 invalidation level → Close all positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish 37d pre-earnings. GEX +$7.4M, spot above MP $370 by 10.7%. Supports $370, $353; resistances $417, $465. Gamma flip $340. Preferred: Bull Call Spread, Call Diagonal. Entry: spot > $370 & front IV > back IV ≥2pts. Exit: spot < $370. Risk: reversion to MP, IV compression.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.