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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $366.81EOD only
Max Pain
$250.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.27
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-116.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.14
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
LRCX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

LRCX exhibits high vol with dealer gamma pinning near $270-$325 max pain, but spot trades above at ~$387. Positive GEX ($+18.5M) and DEX (+23.8M shares) suggest dealer hedging supports, but 44% distance from MP and elevated IV imply mean-reversion risk. Bias is bearish near-term toward $365.67 support, with potential to test $341.25 over 2 weeks.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive pinning; -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX tailwind.
Supports: Positive GEX $+18.5M, strong dealer long gamma, pinning levels at $270/$320/$325.
Conflicts: Spot significantly above max pain (44%), bearish risk of reversion.
⚡High vol regime with pinning near $320 max pain but spot far above.
🛡️Dealer long gamma $+18.5M provides support but flip at $290 poses tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV relative to typical range, suggesting elevated options premium.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime with strong dealer gamma at $270/$320/$325, positive $+18.5M GEX.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow but overall positive premium from dealers, supporting pinning.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$387 is above max pain levels ($270-$325), creating bearish pull.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Range expansion over 2 weeks with high vol and pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$365.67$412.17
Resistance at $412.17, support $365.67; pinning pressure may drag spot down.
Next 2 weeks
$341.25$436.60
Range $341.25-$436.6; structural support at $341.25, resistance at $436.6.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $270 (2026-06-18); $320 (2026-06-26); $325 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $365.67/$412.17
Support: $341.25
Resistance: $436.60
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,917 (25.4% below spot)
Structural: Support: $341.25 (structural). Resistance: $436.6. EM guardrails: 2d $365.67/$412.17. Gamma flip: $290 (approx). Max pain pins: $270 (6/18), $320 (6/26), $325 (7/2).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+18.5M

DEX: +23.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,917 (25.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$18.5M, DEX +23.8M shares. Gamma flip at ~$290, far below spot, indicating strong dealer long gamma in calls, creating pinning support near current levels.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is rich relative to VIX 16.2, reflecting high implied vol in LRCX.

Term structure: Term structure not explicitly provided but elevated across expiries; likely backwardation due to near-term event risk.

Skew: Skew suggests put demand at downside strikes; opportunity on call spreads if spot holds above $320.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $96.9M, P/C vol ratio 1.71, put-heavy flow.

Directional prints: 74 put 340 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 1538/OI 118 (13x), aggressive put buying, likely bearish; hedging possible. Preferred read bearish. 73.6 put 350 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 1256/OI 108 (11.6x), similar aggressive put buying, bearish. Preferred read bearish. 70.7 put 360 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 2512/OI 314 (8x), large put buying, bearish sentiment. Preferred read bearish.

Unusual: 84.4 put 140 OTM 2026-12-18 — Deep OTM put, vol 4034/OI 653 (6.2x), high IV 84%, speculative bearish bet or tail hedge. Preferred read bearish tail. 75.3 call 430 OTM 2026-06-18 — OTM call, vol 476/OI 114 (4.2x), small call buying, could be bullish or volatility. Preferred read neutral. 74.4 put 370 OTM 2026-06-18 — ATM put, vol 872/OI 556 (1.6x), not extreme but consistent with put flow. Preferred read slightly bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 44% above max pain increases reversal risk if pinning fails.
!Gamma flip at $290 could amplify selling if breached.
!High IV may compress quickly if no catalyst.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $380.00/$370.00 put spread
Why now: Put flow and high IV support bearish bet with defined risk.
Upside reversal above $380 would cause loss; time decay works against long put.
Put calendarModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-24 $380.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 put
Why now: Term structure and put flow favor calendar; benefits from volatility crush near-term.
Spot above strikes at short expiry may require adjustment; long leg theta decay if no move. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $400.00/$410.00 call spread
Why now: High IV and bearish tilt; defined risk if spot surprises to upside.
Spot rally above $400 could threaten short call; cap upside loss with long call.

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $380.00/$370.00 put spread
Buy $380/$370 put spread to profit from expected decline.
Why this play: Aligns with bearish near-term bias and put-heavy flow; defined risk and good liquidity.
Debit: $4.99-$6.10
Max loss: $6.10
BE: $373.90
Mgmt: Exit if spot above $436.6; target full gain near expiry.
Bearish traders seeking defined risk.
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $400.00/$410.00 call spread
Sell $400/$410 call spread to collect premium.
Why this play: Capitalizes on high IV and bearish tilt; defined risk, good liquidity.
Credit: $3.40-$4.15
Max loss: $5.85
BE: $404.15
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks $436.6.
Traders expecting limited upside.
#3
Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-24 $380.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 put
Sell near-term put, buy later put for volatility crush.
Why this play: Fits term structure and put flow but lower liquidity.
Debit: $12.08-$14.77
Max loss: $14.77
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll if spot moves toward short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Advanced traders comfortable with illiquid strikes.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFLRCX closes below $365.67 (2d EM support) → Enter bear put spread: buy 2026-08-21 $380/$370 put spread near $5.50 credit
IFLRCX rallies to $412.17 (2d EM resistance) but fails to break $436.60 → Enter call credit spread: sell 2026-08-21 $400/$410 call spread near $3.80 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITLRCX closes above $436.60 (key resistance) → Exit both bear put spread and call credit spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term bias targeting $365.67 support; high IV favors defined-risk bear put spread and call credit spread. Key invalidation at $436.60 resistance. Monitor gamma flip at $290 for downside acceleration.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.