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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $388.92EOD only
Max Pain
$270.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$23.25
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-118.92
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.14
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
LRCX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by positive dealer gamma and low VIX, with spot above max pain. Upside to resistance near 370 and 413 over 2 weeks.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive; -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX 16.
Supports: Positive GEX $18.3M, DEX +23.3M shares, pinning to strikes.
Conflicts: Spot 36.8% above MP; mixed flow; resistance at 370.
🟢GEX +$18.3M strong dealer support, pinning likely.
⚠️Spot far above max pain $270, risk of reversion.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime indicated, IV elevated relative to VIX 16.41.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $18.3M implies pinning to strikes, high gamma near resistance.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with neutral premium context; call/put ratio balanced.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot well above max pain pins ($270, $330), suggesting upward deviation.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins align with weekly expirations (6/18, 6/26, 7/2), driving near-term dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$351.69$386.99
Support 351.69, resistance 386.99; positive gamma favors upside.
Next 1 week
$332.76$405.91
Range 332.76-405.91; dealer hedging supports drift higher.
Next 2 weeks
$325.79$412.89
Range 325.79-412.89; structural resistance at 370, 413.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $270 (2026-06-18); $330 (2026-06-26); $325 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $351.69/$386.99; 1w $332.76/$405.91
Support: $325.79
Resistance: $370.00 · $412.89
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,027 (21.5% below spot)
Structural: Support 325.79; resistance 370.0, 412.89; gamma flip ~$290.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+18.3M

DEX: +23.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,027 (21.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$18.3M, DEX +23.3M shares; gamma flip near $290 suggests downside protection.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX (16.41) consistent with high vol regime, making premium selling attractive.

Term structure: Likely steep near-term due to events, flattening into back months.

Skew: Skew rich on upside; consider put spreads to capture elevated premiums.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$1.06B, P/C vol 0.85 (call-heavy), OI 1.18 (put-heavy); near-term call buying dominant.

Directional prints: 73 call 500 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 12.2 aggressive call buying; bullish speculation or short hedge. 72.7 put 340 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 146.5 massive put buying; bearish bet with downside protection.

Unusual: 375 call 160 ITM 2026-06-18 — Deep ITM call, IV 375%, vol/OI 4.1; likely exercise/roll, illiquidity. 500 call 85 ITM 2026-06-18 — Deep ITM call, IV capped at 500%, vol/OI 3.2; exercise or div arb. 84.1 put 140 OTM 2026-12-18 — Deep OTM put, IV 84%, vol/OI 6.2; speculative long put, distant expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot far from max pain could trigger sharp mean reversion.
!Resistance at 370 may stall rally; break above needed for continuation.
!Dealer gamma flip at $290 amplifies sell-off risk if breached.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $380.00/$440.00 call spread
Why now: Positive dealer gamma and call flow support upside; resistance at 370 may be breached.
Limited profit if spot stalls below 380; time decay before earnings.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-02 $405.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 call
Why now: Near-term IV elevated vs back-month; bullish bias supports long call.
Short call leg caps upside if spot surges; assignment risk on short.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $440.00 call
Why now: Call flow aggressive, IV supports long premium, spot above max pain.
Time decay if move delayed; IV crush post-earnings.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $380.00/$440.00 call spread
Buy $380/$440 call spread expiring 2026-08-21, capturing upside with limited cost.
Why this play: Balanced risk/reward with defined loss, fits bullish thesis and resistance at $370.
Debit: $16.87-$20.62
Max loss: $20.62
BE: $400.62
Mgmt: Exit near $440 or if spot drops to $325.79.
Traders seeking controlled risk near resistance.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $405.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 call
Sell short-term $405 call, buy later $380 call, benefiting from time decay.
Why this play: Exploits near-term IV elevation vs back-month; bullish bias supports long leg.
Debit: $30.22-$36.93
Max loss: $36.93
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Adjust short strike as expiry approaches; exit if spot breaches invalidation.
Advanced traders managing volatility skew.
#3
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $440.00 call
Buy $440 call expiring 2026-08-21, pure directional bet.
Why this play: Aggressive call flow and bullish gamma support unlimited upside potential.
Debit: $22.03-$26.92
Max loss: $26.92
BE: $466.92
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $325.79 or hedge with put spreads.
High-conviction traders seeking maximum leverage.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above 325.79 and breaks 330 → Buy 2026-08-21 $380/$440 call spread for debit ~18.75
IFIF spot breaks above 370 with volume → Buy 2026-08-21 $440 call for debit ~24.48
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot reaches 412.89 or drops below 325.79 → Close Bull Call Spread
EXITIF spot drops to 325.79 → Close Long Call

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias: support 325.79, resistance 370, 412.89. Favor Bull Call Spread for controlled risk; Long Call for conviction. Invalidation at 325.79. Enter on strength above 330 or breakout above 370.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.