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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $389.04EOD only
Max Pain
$347.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$34.45
8.9% from close
Price Gap
-41.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.32
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
LRCX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bearish: gamma pin below, spot above MP, consolidation within 1w $354-$423. GEX/flow aligned limits downside, but reversion risk high. Confidence 8/10.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base5; GEX/flow +2, GEX pin +1, spot-MP -1, VIX +1.
Supports: GEX+$21.2M pin $340; put OI; EM guardrails.
Conflicts: Spot 14.4% above MP; mixed flow; rich IV.
🟢Gamma pin: $340 put OI 22.7k, GEX+$21M.
🔴Spot vs MP: 14.4% above, reversion likely.
🟡Vol: High VIX16.4, avoid long premium.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs norm; VIX16.4.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX+$21M; pin near $340.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed; defensive puts.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot~$389 above MP $340 by 14%.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — 1-2w ranges, GEX+ levels support consolidation.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$354.59$423.49
Pin $340/348; revert to $355.
Next 2 weeks
$344.07$434.02
Wide $344-434; break below $340 bearish.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $340 (2026-06-18); $348 (2026-06-26); $325 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 1w $354.59/$423.49
Support: $344.07
Resistance: $434.02
Gamma flip: ~$340.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,654 (12.6% below spot)
Structural: MP: $340,348,325; EM 1w $355/423; gamma flip $340; S $344, R $434.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.2M

DEX: +21.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$340 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,654 (12.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX+$21.2M, DEX+21.9M shares; flip $340.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: LRCX IV elevated vs VIX16.4; avoid long vol.

Term structure: Contango; front high due to pin.

Skew: Steep put skew; consider put credit spread $340.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $271M positive, bullish flow despite put volume ratio 1.34; large call premiums dominate.

Directional prints: 70.5 call 420 OTM 2026-06-26 — OTM call; vol/OI 2.1; likely bought (bullish) vs sold; preferred read bought due to net premium. 69.7 call 410 OTM 2026-06-26 — OTM call; vol/OI 2.0; likely bought (bullish) vs sold; preferred read bought.

Unusual: 85.4 put 240 OTM 2026-08-21 — Far OTM put; vol/OI 19.9; likely sold (bullish premium) vs bought; preferred read sold given net premium. 71 put 370 OTM 2026-06-26 — OTM put; vol/OI 8.6; likely sold (bullish) vs bought; preferred read sold. 88.5 put 140 OTM 2026-12-18 — Deep OTM put; vol/OI 6.2; likely sold (bullish) vs bought; preferred read sold.

Risks & Catalysts

!Fall below $340 triggers dealer hedging.
!Vol collapse if spot holds.
!Negative flow shift.
!Macro spike.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $340.00/$330.00 put wing and $430.00/$440.00 call wing
Why now: Range-bound premium harvest; GEX/flow supports limits; earnings vol collapse risk.
Break $340 or $423; tail risks from earnings gap.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $340.00/$330.00 put spread
Why now: Neutral-bearish bias; put flow elevated; reversion risk high; defined risk limited.
Spot holds above $380; theta decay if no move; width limits max gain.

Top Plays

#1
Iron Condor for Range-Bound Earnings
Sell 2026-08-21 $340.00/$330.00 put wing and $430.00/$440.00 call wing
Sell OTM put/call wings in $340-$430 range to harvest premium from time decay and vol contraction.
Why this play: Aligns with neutral-bearish consolidation and vol collapse risk; defined risk, liquidity pass.
Credit: $6.32-$7.73
Max loss: $2.27
BE: 332.27 / 437.73
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot touches wing; adjust if trend breaks.
Traders expecting muted price action and vol decline post-earnings.
#2
Bear Put Spread on Downside Reversion
Buy 2026-08-21 $340.00/$330.00 put spread
Buy $340/$330 put spread for defined-risk bearish exposure.
Why this play: Captures elevated put flow and reversion risk, but less aligned with consolidation thesis.
Debit: $3.40-$4.15
Max loss: $4.15
BE: $335.85
Mgmt: Exit if spot holds above $340; roll up if downside accelerates.
Traders with stronger bearish conviction and limited risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds between $340 and $434 → Sell iron condor: sell 2026-08-21 $340p/$330p & $430c/$440c, target credit 6.32-7.73.
IFIf spot breaks below $344 → Buy 2026-08-21 $340/$330 put spread for 3.40-4.15.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot touches $340 or $430 → Close iron condor; adjust if necessary.
EXITIf spot rises above $434 → Close bear put spread to limit loss to 4.15.

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish consolidation. IC collects premium; BPS hedges downside. Key gamma flip at $340. Manage if levels break.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.