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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $369.34EOD only
Max Pain
$270.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$17.65
4.8% from close
Price Gap
-99.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
94
High premium
P/C OI
1.18
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
LRCX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Near-term bearish bias toward expiry as spot at $374 is 10.9% above max pain $338, suggesting downside drift. High vol and pinning dynamics support reversion, though bullish flow and positive GEX may slow the move. Confidence 5.5 (moderate bullish tilt from flow but capped by MP divergence).

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5; +1 GEX positive; +0.5 flow bullish; -1 spot above MP.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, moderate VIX.
Conflicts: Spot far above MP, high vol regime, tight 2d range.
📉Spot 10.9% above max pain $338; pinning favors drift lower.
🪤GEX +$22.3M and bullish flow; may slow downside but not reverse.
📊High vol regime: IV rich; consider premium selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: IV elevated vs typical range; likely driven by event risk and recent market drop.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma positive (+$22.3M GEX); flip at ~$340 (9% below spot).
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: net buying with call skew; aggressive accumulation.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $374 above MP $338 (10.9%); pinning suggests drift toward $338 but flow may provide resistance.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry (2026-06-18) with defined 2d range; pinning dynamics dominate.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$358.20$390.15
Spot above MP, likely drift to $358 support.
Next 1 week
$337.45$410.90
Post-expiry broadens range; possible consolidation $340-390.
Next 2 weeks
$328.18$420.18
If gamma fails, breakdown to $328 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $338 (2026-06-18); $335 (2026-06-26); $325 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $358.20/$390.15; 1w $337.45/$410.90
Support: $340.00 · $337.50 · $328.18
Resistance: $420.18
Gamma flip: ~$340.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,638 (9.1% below spot)
Structural: MAIN: $338 (max pain/pin); $340 (gamma flip). SUPPORT: $358 (2d low), $337 (1w low), $328 (2w low). RESISTANCE: $390 (2d high), $420 (struct).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+22.3M

DEX: +20.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$340 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,638 (9.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$22.3M (short gamma suppressed), DEX +20.9M shares; flip at ~$340.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 18.44; high vol regime suggests premium selling opportunity.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to event; back-weekly contango expected post-expiry.

Skew: Skew steep puts; put credit spreads around $340 support offer premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium of $720M, 0.45 P/C volume ratio, indicates strong net call buying.

Directional prints: 342 call 250 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.2, IV 342%. ITM call buying, extreme IV, likely distressed bullish position.

Unusual: 500 put 125 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 8.0, IV 500%. Deep OTM put buying, likely cheap insurance. Unusual spike. 76.3 call 480 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 5.2, far OTM call. Bullish speculation, unusual large volume.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $340 gamma flip, triggering dealer selling.
!Market selloff (SPY -1.25%) amplifies drawdown.
!High vol persistence increases premium cost for longs.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $340.00/$337.50 put spread
Why now: Spot above max pain, bullish flow capped by high IV and MP divergence; bear put spread profits from downside with defined risk.
Downside risk limited but premium lost if spot rallies above short strike.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $330.00/$310.00 put spread
Why now: Spot well above max pain with negative gamma exposure, put spread profits from downside reversion.
Spot rallies further on bullish flow; risk defined by spread width.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-24 $440.00/$470.00 call spread
Why now: High IV and spot near resistance, credit spread captures time decay and limited upside.
Spot breaks above short strike; defined risk. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread (Near-term)
Buy 2026-06-26 $340.00/$337.50 put spread
Bearish view using near-term OTM puts; limited premium, benefits from downside drift.
Why this play: Spot above max pain, bullish flow capped by high IV and MP divergence; bear put spread profits from downside with defined risk.
Debit: $0.61-$0.74
Max loss: $0.74
BE: $339.26
Mgmt: Consider adjusting if spot breaches $340 support before expiry.
Traders expecting modest downside toward max pain within 2 weeks.
#2
Bear Put Spread (Extended)
Buy 2026-07-17 $330.00/$310.00 put spread
Bearish view using wider spread for gradual downside move.
Why this play: Similar thesis but wider wings capture potential reversion over longer duration with slower theta decay.
Debit: $4.95-$6.05
Max loss: $6.05
BE: $323.95
Mgmt: Monitor vol; early exit if spot reverses above $420.
Traders with patience expecting gradual decline over several weeks.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $440.00/$470.00 call spread
Collects premium from limited upside; benefits from high IV and capped rally.
Why this play: Bearish strategy selling calls; liquidity concerns lower priority but still valid.
Credit: $4.37-$5.34
Max loss: $24.66
BE: $445.34
Mgmt: Risk of assignment if spot spikes; consider closing if IV collapses. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Traders with high conviction spot stays below $440 by July expiry.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot fails to break above $390 and shows rejection → Enter 2026-06-26 $340/$337.5 bear put spread near ask
IFIF spot breaks below $358 and closes below → Enter 2026-07-17 $330/$310 bear put spread near ask
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot rallies above $420 → Close all bear put spreads and consider reversal

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias toward expiry; spot above max pain ($338) with downside divergence. Key support $340 (gamma flip); break below targets $337-$328. Favor bear put spreads: near-term ($340/$337.5) for accelerated decay, extended ($330/$310) for broader move. Invalidation: spot above $420.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.