Term structure: Backwardated near-term (70%+ for April), elevated across all expirations.
Spot vs MP: Spot $41.17 is 8.5% below max pain of $45.
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$9.0M — pro-cyclical, dealers amplify moves).
Gamma flip: ~$15.00 — Massive put OI at $15 creates a major gamma flip level far below. Above $15, negative GEX suggests trending price action.
OI concentrations: Major Call Walls: $40 (98K), $50 (75K). Major Put Support: $15 (55K), $20 (49K), $30 (48K).
#1put spread
Sell $35/$30 put spread for 2026-05-15 (47 DTE)
Targets major OI support at $30. High IV (68.8%) provides excellent credit. Defined risk protects against the trending GEX regime. Strike is below the expected move low of $33.09 for this expiration.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $36 (just above short strike). Do not roll.
#2iron condor
Sell $35/$30P x $50/$55C for 2026-06-18 (81 DTE)
Wide, high-probability range anchored by massive OI at $30P and $50C. High IV (65.5%) provides strong premium. 81 DTE allows time for theta decay while avoiding the near-term earnings date.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; close tested side if short strike is breached. Close entire position 2 weeks before earnings (by ~4/9).
#3cash-secured put
Sell $30 put for 2026-04-24 (26 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own INTC. Targets the massive $30 OI support wall. High IV (70.4%) yields an attractive annualized return. Strike is 27% below spot, offering a large margin of safety.
Mgmt: Roll down/out only if credit received is >1.5x the width of the new strike. Be prepared to take assignment at $30. Close before earnings if not assigned.
#4call credit spread
Sell $45/$50 call spread for 2026-04-17 (19 DTE)
Capitalizes on spot being below max pain ($45) and the large $50 call wall. High IV (64.6%) provides good credit. Defined risk against upward moves in a trending (negative GEX) regime.
Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if price closes above $44.50 (just below short strike).
!Trending GEX Regime (GEX -$9.0M): Dealers will amplify price moves, increasing risk for naked short options. Favor defined-risk spreads.
!Upcoming Earnings ~2026-04-23: Do not sell naked options through this event. Close or roll all short premium positions at least 5-7 days prior.
!Extreme Call Buying Flow: Net premium flow is heavily bullish (+$15.1M, P/C 0.39). This suggests institutional bullish bets that could fuel a rally, threatening short call positions.
!Gamma Flip at ~$15: A break below this level (far from spot) would see dealer hedging flip to accelerate selling. This is a tail-risk alert for put sellers.
!High IV Crush Risk Post-Earnings: While IV is high now, it will collapse after the April earnings report, punishing short vega positions held through the event.