Earnings Verdict
INTC 63d out; near-term IV elevated; max pain $110; flow bullish.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: 1d implied move 3.6% high for VIX 17.
📊Extreme 1d move (3.6%) vs VIX 17
📉Heavy put buys $115/$113 5/22
📈Call vol ratio 0.77 bullish
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,623 (24.1% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-23 (63 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$4.28 (3.6%)
- 2026-05-29 (8d): ±$10.93 (9.2%)
- 2026-06-05 (15d): ±$15.62 (13.2%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep front: 1d 3.6% vs 8d 9.2%.
Crush estimate: No near crush.
Skew: P/C OI 1.08, vol 0.77.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Directional bias: Neutral
Key Levels
1$90.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $114.22/$122.78; 1w $107.58/$129.43
3Max pain pins: $110 (2026-05-22); $105 (2026-05-29); $110 (2026-06-05)
Flow Highlights
Unusual put buying: 27.5k vol $115P 5/22; 5.4k $113P.
Hedging or directional bearish bet.
Unusual call buying: 7.5k vol $115C 5/29.
Speculative bullish or upside hedge.
Strategies
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $110.00/$109.00 put wing and $115.00/$120.00 call wing
Neutral bias, max pain pinning
Outperforms: Sell $110 put/call wings
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-29 $120.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $120.00 call
Steep front vol, term structure trade
Outperforms: Sell May 120 call, buy Jul 120 call
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Pinning risk to $110 max pain 5/22.
!Front IV may contract post-expiry.
!Put OI concentration at risk.
What to Watch
?5/22 & 5/29 expirations.
?Spot near $110 support.
?July earnings catalyst.