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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $65.27EOD only
Max Pain
$60.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.13
9.4% from close
Price Gap
-5.27
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
38
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
INTC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-probability pin into earnings driven by concentrated short-dated flow anchoring trades near $60 (max pain) with heavy calls clustered up to $73 — creates a $60–$73 pin band with elevated tail-IV.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 11.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Concentrated front-week put/call flow around $60 and $66–$73 strikes implies gamma pinning and asymmetric upside tail risk.
📌Pinning concentrated around $60 (max pain) with call clusters up to $73 — expect $60–$73 pin band
⚡Front-week IV extreme (~170%) — anticipate large post-print crush (80–120 vol-point) if no shock
🔥Long-dated call demand implies asymmetric upside tail; protects upside risk for dealers

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (1d): ±$6.80 (10.2%)
  • 2026-05-01 (8d): ±$8.52 (12.8%)
  • 2026-05-08 (15d): ±$9.48 (14.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV ~170% (4/24), 2–4 week IVs ~90–110%, 1–3 month IV ~60% — very steep short-end term structure.

Crush estimate: Expect ~80–120 vol-point drop in front-week IV post-print (large), ~20–40 point drop in 1–4 week expiries.

Skew: Front-week skew: 25Δ call/put skew ~+18 vol (calls richer), 10Δ put skew elevated ~+30 vol vs ATM — steep front-end skew favoring tails.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 80% (4/5). Historical average absolute 1-day move ≈8% vs options-implied ~9%; >10% moves occurred ~22% of events.

Directional bias: Slight historical upside tilt from beats, but concentrated short-dated flow and pin band favor mean reversion into expiry rather than clean breakout.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $59.98/$73.58; 1w $58.25/$75.30
2Max pain pins: $60 (2026-04-24); $60 (2026-05-01); $60 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated short-dated sells at $60 (max pain) and heavy activity in $66 puts plus clustered calls at $73–$79

Dealer hedging gamma around these strikes creates pin pressure inside $60–$73 band.

Notable long-dated call purchases (OTM $87,$105)

Builds asymmetric upside tail exposure; dealers may skew long-dated implieds higher.

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $60.00/$58.00 put wing and $74.00/$83.00 call wing
Credit: $1.47-$1.80
Max loss: $7.20
Max gain: $1.80
BE: 58.20 / 75.80
Trigger: Enter near top of entry range; trim or roll if spot breaches wings or IV collapses early.
Best risk/reward given $60–$73 pin band and extreme front-week IV; limits tail gap losses.
Outperforms: Collect rich premium while capping downside from gamma pinning; wings protect against short-squeeze gaps.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call calendar (sell near-dated)
Sell 2026-05-01 $70.00 call / buy 2026-05-15 $70.00 call
Debit: $0.92-$1.13
Max loss: $1.13
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Target lower end of entry range; close short leg into post-print IV collapse or if spot breaks below ~57.
Exploits ~100pt front-to-back IV skew — front-week crush expected, keeps longer upside exposure.
Outperforms: Sell 5–8d call, buy 2–6 week to capture front-week vol crush and optional upside theta carry.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (high premium, high risk)
Sell 2026-05-01 $61.00 put + sell $70.00 call
Credit: $4.21-$5.14
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.14
BE: 55.86 / 75.14
Trigger: Use strict size limits, hedge quickly on big IV or spot swings, or convert to defined-risk structure.
Highest premium but unlimited upside risk and exposed to large post-print moves.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated OTM put and call to harvest outsized front-week premium; vulnerable to earnings gaps.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Severe front-week IV crush risk if no surprise
!Gamma pinning inside $60–$73 increases short-squeeze or gap risk
!Spot ~11% above mark heightens downside gap exposure if guidance misses
!High realized vol amplifies option P/L both ways

What to Watch

?Reported EPS/guide vs consensus and language on forward outlook
?Pre-open moves in front-week IV and bid/ask at $60,$66,$73 strikes
?Big OI shifts or dealer delta hedging that track spot toward $60–$73
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.