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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $65.70EOD only
Max Pain
$57.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.65
10.1% from close
Price Gap
-8.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
27
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
INTC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Event IV rich (front-week ~120%) with concentrated gamma at Apr24 67; bid/ask skew shows 30d put-call differential ~12% and dealers hedging flow ~+100–150k shares/day into calls — edge limited to vega sellers who can absorb crush and hedge; guidance/forward-revenue commentary is the primary directional catalyst.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Monitor guidance sensitivity (forward rev/margin) and Apr24 front-week IV/67 strike activity.
📈Front-week IV ~120% with 30d put-call skew ~12% — expect large front-week crush and costly hedging.
📌Guidance sensitivity is key: forward-revenue/margin comments will likely dictate directional gap post-print.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (2 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$6.70 (10.1%)
  • 2026-05-01 (10d): ±$8.17 (12.3%)
  • 2026-05-08 (17d): ±$9.47 (14.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV ~120% steeply falls to 70–80% at 1–4 weeks; 3m–6m anchored ~60–75%.

Crush estimate: Front-week crush likely large (~40–60 vol points absolute on front-week IV); multi-week IV to retrace but skew remains elevated.

Skew: 30d put-call skew ~+10–15% (puts richer); bid/ask spreads wider at near-dated strikes, increasing hedging cost.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Implied move ~10% historically matches realized median; post-earnings moves exceeded IV ~35% of events; beat rate 75% (3/4).

Directional bias: Slight historical upside bias when guidance optimistic, but misses produce outsized downside gap.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $59.56/$72.96; 1w $58.09/$74.44
2Max pain pins: $60 (2026-04-24); $58 (2026-05-01); $56 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large Apr24 67C flow (~7.4k traded, ~4k OI) concentrated in front-week.

Dealer gamma shorting likely to produce pinning into expiration and elevated delta-hedge flows.

Significant Jun calls (85) and Jun puts (57.5) OI with net premium inflow.

Hedging of longer-dated directional exposure may amplify moves if guidance shifts forward estimates.

Strategies

Front-week vega sell via call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $69.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $70.00 call
Debit: $2.59-$3.16
Max loss: $3.16
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close or roll if Apr24 67 strike prints heavy or stock moves >~5% pre-report; keep Jun call as hedge if rally continues.
Sells rich Apr front-week IV while capping tail risk vs outright short calls.
Outperforms: Sell May01 69 call, buy Jun18 70 call to net short front-end vega and limit gap exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Cost‑efficient upside via bull call spread
Buy 2026-05-15 $65.00/$70.00 call spread
Debit: $1.91-$2.34
Max loss: $2.34
Max gain: $2.66
BE: $67.34
Trigger: Take profits into move > breakeven; cut if guidance clearly negative or IV collapses.
Expresses slight upside bias with limited vega and defined loss.
Outperforms: Buy May15 65/70 call spread to benefit from positive guidance while capping premium spend.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Defined downside via bear put spread
Buy 2026-05-22 $70.00/$65.00 put spread
Debit: $2.57-$3.14
Max loss: $3.14
Max gain: $1.86
BE: $66.86
Trigger: Widen or close if prints show outsized gap or put IV spikes; respect 70 invalidation.
Uses elevated put skew to hedge/short downside with controlled cost.
Outperforms: Buy May22 70/65 put spread to capture downside from a guidance miss while limiting loss.
Underperforms: Trade above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $62.00 put + sell $70.00 call
Credit: $4.39-$5.37
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.37
BE: 56.63 / 75.37
Front-week IV rich vs 1–3m term; sell both wings to capture rapid vol decay; be prepared for outsized gap risk on guidance misses.
Outperforms: Sell near-term vega via short strangle into elevated front-week skew and collect premium post-earnings crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large front-week IV crush can still leave price gaps vs strikes
!Front-week IV >100% increases premium decay and execution risk
!Put skew and widened bid/ask raise cost to adjust hedges
!Guidance/forward-revenue and margin commentary is primary downside/upside driver

What to Watch

?Company guidance/forward-revenue and margin commentary
?Apr24 front-week IV and Apr24 67 strike prints
?Delta/gamma dealer hedge flow rates and bid/ask skew moves
?Price action vs $60–$70 max-pain region
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.