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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $107.93EOD only

Max Pain

$112.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.78

7.2% from close

Price Gap

+4.07

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.07

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

INTC Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Event risk is elevated; favor defined-risk premium sales sized to withstand a gap while respecting strong dealer pinning at $65. Best strategy family: defined-risk credit structures (put-credit, iron-condor) or a call-diagonal to monetize the front/back IV spread while keeping upside exposure. Key risk: guidance-driven gap that breaks the $65 pin and runs through concentrated call OI.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 29.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

Most important: Watch 2026-04-24 front-tenor IV (ATM 92.5%) vs back-month IV — that split decides whether sellers can harvest premium or need to hedge into release.

📅Earnings on 2026-04-23 (8d) with 9d EM ±$7.92 (12.2%) — front IV 92.5% flags elevated event risk.

📈Dealer GEX +$157.9M with concentrated +$34.1M at $65.00 — expect pinning pressure near $65 absent a major surprise.

⚠️Net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$109.3M) and concentrated call OI at $65/$70 increases squeeze risk on upside moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Flow Regime

Bullish

Spot vs MP

Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (8 days)explicit

Expected moves:

2026-04-17 (2d): ±$2.71 (4.2%)
2026-04-24 (9d): ±$7.93 (12.2%)
2026-05-01 (16d): ±$9.25 (14.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp front-tenor kink: 2d ATM IV 57.7% → 9d ATM IV 92.5% then 16d ATM IV 82.8% and a grind down into mid-60s by summer. Front-cycle is extremely rich versus back-months.

Crush estimate: High — expect a material IV collapse for the 2026-04-24 expiry (front IV likely to fall from ~92.5% toward the 65–80% band post-release).

Skew: Call-side demand has concentrated OI and premium (notably $55 and $70), creating call-heavy skew; puts are relatively cheaper and net premium flow is bullish (+$109.3M).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: INTC has a 75% historical beat rate (3/4) and has produced larger directional moves on beats; the market is pricing a large 9d expected move ±$7.92 (12.2%) into the 2026-04-23 event.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into earnings driven by prior beats and current bullish net premium/flow.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $62.23/$67.65; 1w $57.02/$72.87

2Max pain pins: $50 (2026-04-17); $55 (2026-04-24); $52 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated call premium at $55.00 and $70.00 strikes (Top Premium Flow shows $55 net $15,300,950; $70 net $11,413,417).

Large call buying forces dealer delta hedges and creates pinning pressure between $65–$70, increasing the chance of the $65.00 pin holding absent a big surprise.

Near-term GEX concentration +$34.1M at $65.00 (pin magnet) and +$15.0M at $70.00.

Positive overall GEX (+$157.9M) plus localized GEX makes $65.00 the primary short-term magnet and raises the cost of buying front-week protection.

Front-tenor ATM IV spike to 92.5% at 9d expiry (2026-04-24).

Large front/back IV spread creates an opportunity to sell near-term vol or implement calendar/diagonal structures to collect premium while retaining directional optionality.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit into the $62–$68 range

Sell 2026-04-24 $61.00/$55.00 put spread

Credit: $1.35-$1.66

Max loss: $4.34

Max gain: $1.66

BE: $59.34

Trigger: Close into early post-release IV drop or on a sustained break below $57.02; leg upsize only if pinned and IV compresses.

Best risk-adjusted way to harvest elevated front IV while respecting dealer pinning at $65 and support at $55.69.

Outperforms: Sell a short-dated put spread (target ~30-delta short put with a long 4–6 point lower put). Collect rich premium and close into post-earnings IV collapse or on downside break.

Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.

Sell front calls, buy back-month calls (call diagonal)

Sell 2026-04-24 $75.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $80.00 call

Debit: $1.75-$2.14

Max loss: $2.14

Max gain: Variable

BE: Path-dependent

Trigger: Buy back the short leg on a fast move above $70 or if front IV re-steepens; trim the long if the underlying stalls below $65 post-release.

Captures the front/back IV spread (9d 92.5% vs Jun/Jul mid-60s) while retaining upside exposure if INTC gaps higher.

Outperforms: Sell an expensive near-term call (7–16d) and buy a longer-dated call (45–120d). This reduces net cost of upside exposure and monetizes front-week sellers' demand.

Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Front-week iron condor across 1-week EM

Sell 2026-04-24 $60.00/$55.00 put wing and $75.00/$85.00 call wing

Credit: $1.75-$2.14

Max loss: $7.86

Max gain: $2.14

BE: 57.86 / 77.14

Trigger: Close into the release or roll wings outward if price action nears short strikes; exit if price breaches support $55.69.

EM [$57.02 / $72.87] maps to logical wings and front IV is rich enough to pay for defined-risk wings; GEX pinning supports range outcome.

Outperforms: Sell an inner put and call within the 1-week EM and buy wider wings outside EM to define risk; keep wings wide enough to avoid immediate contact with the $65/$70 call walls.

Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Guidance/leak risk: a bad guide can gap price through the $65 pin and rapidly widen spreads — maximize liquidity and use defined-risk sizing.

!IV crush: Long-vol positions are penalized by front-cycle IV collapse (92.5% → mid-60s post-event); sellers will generally benefit if position is sized correctly.

!Liquidity & spreads: Liquid overall, but front-cycle spreads may widen into the event; avoid thinly traded OTM wings for large notional trades.

What to Watch

?Front-tenor IV for 2026-04-24 (ATM 92.5%) — steepening favors buying protection/long vol; compression favors premium selling.

?Price action around the $65.00 GEX pin (+$34.1M) and $70.00 call OI wall (structural resistance).

?Unusual activity prints (e.g., 2026-05-01 $69 call volume spike) that signal speculative upside bets beyond the front-week.

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.