thetaOwl
HomeOptionsINTCReports

INTC

Intel CorporationClose $121.77EOD only
Max Pain
$111.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.03
5.8% from close
Price Gap
-10.77
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
High premium
P/C OI
1.04
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 27, 2026 close
INTC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

High-IV, dealer-pinning environment into an earnings window. Best play is premium selling inside the 2-day EM band (4/10) or small-size directional hedged put spreads — IV is rich (ATM 80.2%) and dealers have +$177.1M GEX which favors pinning near short-dated pin magnets. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap outside the 2d EM $56.08–$61.82 which would punish short premium and accelerate moves.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.3% from MP
Most important: Watch IV term structure and OTM put flow into the 4/10 and 4/17 expirations — heavy put flow around $55–$57.50 could shift pin behavior into the lower EM rail.
📌Pin magnets at $60.00 and $55.00 (GEX +$22.8M / +$20.3M) increase odds of price gravitating toward that corridor into the 4/10 expiry.
⚠️Front-end ATM IV 80.2% (4/10) — long premium is exposed to a large IV crush; prefer defined-risk longs or premium sales sized for potential gap.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (TBD) (15 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): 7.1% ATM -> ±$2.87 (4.9%) [$56.08 - $61.82]
  • 2026-04-17 (9d): ±$5.15 (8.7%) [$53.80 - $64.11]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp elevation at the 2d expiry (2026-04-10 ATM 80.2%) with the 9d ATM lower at 68.3% then a higher 16d ATM at 84.2% — front-end is rich and shows an earnings-kink on the 2d and 16d expiries.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts back to the 60s on the nearest expiries (2d ATM 80.2% likely to drop toward the 68% level post-announcement)

Skew: Call-heavy net premium and flow (top premium flow concentrated at $50/$60/$70 calls) but puts show episodic unusual activity around $55–$57.50 — skew is slightly put-sensitive in very near-term order flow while overall institutional flow is call-biased.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters: 2025-03, 2025-09, 2025-12 beats; 2025-06 miss)

Avg move vs expected: Historical actual moves not provided explicitly; recent EPS surprises skew positive but move sizes vary.

Directional bias: Historically biased to upside surprises (3/4) but sample small

Key Levels

1$60.00 (GEX +$22.8M, pin magnet, +1.8% from spot)
2$55.00 (GEX +$20.3M, pin magnet, -6.7% from spot)
3EM (2d): $56.08 - $61.82

Flow Highlights

Very large call premium flow concentrated at $50/$60/$70 (net premium: $50.00 call net $43,276,174; $60.00 call net $41,442,562; $70.00 call net $32,797,746).

Institutional call buying dominates premium flow — dealers are short call exposure that contributes to positive GEX and helps pin above key call-rich strikes.

Unusual near-term put activity at $55.00 (4/10 vol 27,214, OI 360) and concentrated 4/17 put prints at $57.00/$57.50 (13,746/7,126 vol).

Either tactical protective buying or dealer-driven hedges anticipating downside; these prints increase the importance of the $55–$57.50 corridor as a support/pinning zone.

Strategies

Short iron condor (earnings crush + pinning sell)
Sell 55C / Buy 65C and Sell 55P / Buy 51P — 2026-04-10 expiration
Credit: $4.70-$5.10
Max loss: $5.90
Max gain: $5.10
BE: $49.90 / $60.10 (approx, per net credit on short legs)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV remains elevated (2d ATM ~80%) and market tone is stable
High front-end IV + strong dealer pinning (GEX +$177.1M) favors collecting premium inside EM; structure uses asymmetric wing widths to limit downside while capturing rich short premiums (55 and 60 area concentrations).
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 2d EM $56.08–$61.82 or pins near $55–$60 and IV compresses after earnings
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap beyond the EM rails (>~4.9% on the 2d), or heavy post-earnings directional move blowout
Long straddle (gamma play)
Buy 58 straddle — 2026-04-10 expiration (Buy 58C and 58P)
Debit: $2.80-$3.20
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~$55.20 / $60.80 (approx per cost)
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if you expect a large miss/beat or IV not to inflate further; size small due to high IV
Cheap way to capture a large directional gap; 58 strike is available and the sum of ask prices is ~2.8–3.2, which matches front-end IV premium.
Outperforms: Actual move materially exceeds the 2d EM (move >~$3.75 or >30% above EM) and post-event IV remains supportive or gap occurs
Underperforms: Stock pins near $58–$60 and IV collapses — limited upside after IV crush
Directional bearish put spread (protective / downside lean)
Buy 57.50 / Sell 55 put spread — 2026-04-17 expiration
Debit: $0.75-$0.95
Max loss: $0.95
Max gain: $1.55
BE: 57.50 - cost ≈ $56.55 (if cost = $0.95)
Trigger: Enter pre-earnings if unusual put flow at $57.50/$57 shows accumulation or if you want a cheap hedge against a post-earnings down gap
Unusual activity shows concentrated 4/17 put prints at $57/$57.50; small-cost vertical captures downside with limited risk and benefits from sticky post-earnings weakness.
Outperforms: Stock gaps or drifts below $56.50 into the 9d window and IV for 4/17 holds
Underperforms: Stock stays above $57.50 or rebounds quickly after any dip; also hurts if IV collapses sharply on the 4/10 print and 4/17 front-end reprices lower

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 2d EM ±$2.87 (4.9%) — guidance or commentary can produce outsized gaps beyond EM and render short premium trades costly.
!IV crush: front-end ATM IV is 80.2% (4/10) and may compress 10–15 vol pts post-announcement, hurting long premium but helping short premium trades.
!Liquidity: Near-term strikes (55/60) have heavy OI and volume — good fills there; wings like 65 and 51 have lower liquidity and can widen spreads.
!Sizing: Given high IV and dealer pinning, keep size limited on long premium (straddles) and use defined-risk or hedged structures for shorts.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/10 (is ATM IV staying >75% or rolling lower toward 68%)
?Unusual put flow at $55–$57.50 (prints indicate protective demand or dealer hedging)
?Net premium flow into $60 and $55 strikes (call-dominant flow vs put prints)
?SPX/tech tape around earnings for broader directional moves that could amplify gap risk
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.