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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $118.50EOD only
Max Pain
$110.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.28
3.6% from close
Price Gap
-8.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
INTC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/23 (17 days out). IV elevated (74.9% for 4/24), with a sharp 10.1 vol-point kink vs 4/17, indicating crush potential. Strong pinning forces and positive GEX suggest a range-bound move, favoring premium-selling or volatility surface strategies. Key risk is a gap beyond EM guardrails given high volatility.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.0% from MP
Most important: Positive GEX of +$153.3M and pinning at $50.00 create a strong magnet, but spot is 8% above max pain, increasing gap risk. IV term structure anomaly (74.9% vs 64.8%) offers relative value plays.
📅Earnings confirmed 4/23 (TBD timing), 17 days out
⚡IV term structure shows 10.1 vol-point differential (74.9% vs 64.8%), creating relative value opportunities like calendar spreads
⚠️Spot $50.78 is 8% above max pain $47, increasing pinning tension and gap risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 71.2%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$153.3M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$19.8M, P/C 1.07)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $50.78 vs MP $47)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (17 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$6.75 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 (74.9% vs 64.8% on 4/17) — 10.1 vol-point differential, indicating earnings-driven IV spike.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~60-65% range.

Skew: P/C volume ratio 1.07 indicates slightly more put activity, but OI ratio 0.88 shows more call OI overall.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data to compute; historical EPS surprises range from -12.81 to +31.21.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters positive EPS surprise, suggesting upside bias.

Key Levels

1$50.00 (GEX pin)
2$47.00 (max pain 4/10)
3$44.00 (put OI cluster)
4$55.00 (call OI wall)
5$52.50 (GEX pin)
6$52.00 (GEX pin)

Flow Highlights

$55.00 CALL 4/17: 9,004 volume vs 46,746 OI, net premium +$4.0M

Large call buying at key resistance, likely earnings upside bets.

$33.00 PUT: net premium -$4.0M (put buying)

Significant OTM put protection, indicating tail risk hedging.

Unusual: $51.00 PUT 4/17 ITM: 1,411 vol vs 103 OI (13.7x)

High-volume put activity near spot, possibly hedging or directional downside bets.

Strategies

Short calendar spread (IV crush play)
Sell $50.00 straddle 4/24 (IV 74.9%) / Buy $50.00 straddle 4/17 (IV 64.8%)
Credit: $0.80-$1.20
Max loss: Limited to net credit
Max gain: $1.00
BE: Stock moves within ~$44-$57 by 4/17, with IV crush on 4/24 leg
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings to capture full IV differential
Exploits 10.1 vol-point differential in term structure; sells high IV earnings expiration against lower IV non-earnings expiration for relative value.
Outperforms: IV on 4/24 collapses post-earnings more than 4/17 IV, and stock stays range-bound
Underperforms: Large directional gap beyond EM or IV fails to crush sufficiently
Iron condor (premium sale)
Sell $44.00/$47.00 PUT x $55.00/$58.00 CALL 4/24
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.75
BE: $45.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings if IV > 70%
High IV (74.9%) and pinning forces (positive GEX) favor premium decay; strikes calibrated to EM guardrails.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($44.03-$57.53) and pins near $50.00
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >20% or breaks key support/resistance
Long straddle (directional volatility)
Buy $50.00 straddle 4/24
Max loss: $6.75
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $43.25
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV < 80% and expected move underestimated
Historical beat rate (75%) suggests potential for larger-than-expected move; high IV increases cost but provides leverage.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $43.25-$56.75)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $50.00 and IV crushes post-earnings

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±13.3% ($44.03-$57.53), but spot 8% above max pain ($47) increases downside risk.
!IV crush: Estimated 10-15 vol pts post-earnings; long premium strategies may suffer significant decay, while calendar spreads benefit.
!Liquidity: Sufficient OI (4.5M) and volume (416K), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Reduce position sizes due to high volatility (IV 71.2%) and potential for outsized moves.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (watch for further spikes or compression in the 4/24 vs 4/17 differential)
?Unusual OTM put activity at $33.00 and $39.00
?Spot vs $50.00 pin level and max pain trend
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.