base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Put IV exceeds call IV across all expirations; short-term ATM IV dips at 22d
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+811.6M)
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 311,427 (1.1% below spot)
OI concentrations: Massive put OI at $80 across weekly/monthly expirations
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$77.00 put spread
Sells out-of-the-money put spread to capture premium with support from structural put floor.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $79 with volume. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (59%).; long_put: Wide spread (133%).
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$77.00 put wing and $81.00/$84.00 call wing
Sells both put and call spreads to profit from spot remaining near $80.
Mgmt: Adjust wings if pin risk materializes by expiration. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (59%).; long_put: Wide spread (133%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.
!Put/call vol ratio 6.83 extreme bearish; net premium -$23.7M
!Gamma flip at $79; break below accelerates selling
!Structural put floor $74-$75 offers support