Term structure: Put IV elevated vs calls across term; near-dated puts show high implied vol, suggesting bearish sentiment
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Trending ($-52.9M)
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 450,304 (0.9% below spot)
OI concentrations: Heavy put OI at $80 across 2026-06-18, 2026-06-26, 2026-07-02 expirations; total put OI ratio 3.82 vs calls
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$78.00 put spread
Sells $79 put, buys $78 put to collect premium, expecting HYG to hold above $79 by expiration.
Mgmt: Exit if HYG breaks below $79; consider rolling down if tested early. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (76%).
#2Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $81.00/$82.00 call spread
Sells $81 call, buys $82 call to collect minimal premium, betting on capped upside.
Mgmt: Monitor closely; low credit makes adjustment difficult; close early if HYG nears $81. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (100%).
!Negative dealer gamma ($-52.9M) amplifies spot moves
!Bearish flow with put/call volume ratio 2.56
!Low vol regime may lead to complacency