Term structure: Extreme put skew near expiry (put IV 55.6% vs call 14.4%); back-month IVs flatter around 10-15%.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Trending ($-10.9B)
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 450,304 (1.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Massive put OI concentration at $80 (max pain) for 6/18, 6/26, 7/2 expiries; total put OI ratio 3.74.
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$78.00 put wing and $81.00/$82.00 call wing
Sells puts and calls around $80 to capture premium with wings for tail risk.
Mgmt: Monitor spot; exit if pin breaks or close at 50% max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (63%).; long_put: Wide spread (67%).; short_call: Wide spread (143%).
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $79.00/$78.50 put spread
Sells put spread at $79/$78.50 to collect premium with defined loss.
Mgmt: Exit if spot approaches $79; manage to 50% gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (174%).; long_put: Open interest below 25.
#3Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $81.00/$82.00 call spread
Sells call spread at $81/$82 to collect small premium.
Mgmt: Close if spot rises above $80.92. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (143%).
!Expiry day pin at $80; monitor spot closely.
!Extreme put/call OI ratio 3.75; puts dominate.
!Negative dealer gamma ($-10.9B) suggests amplified spot moves if pin breaks.