base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Put skew elevated; near-term put IVs significantly above calls; backwardation in some expirations.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+371.3M)
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 309,326 (1.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Heavy put OI at $80; 309K puts vs 94K calls at that strike (OI ratio 3.3:1).
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$78.00 put wing and $80.00/$81.00 call wing
Sells put wing at 79/78 and call wing at 80/81 to profit from theta while limiting risk.
Mgmt: Monitor pin risk; adjust wings if spot breaks 79 or 80.65. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (97%).; short_call: Wide spread (56%).; long_call: Wide spread (67%).
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$78.00 put spread
Sells 79/78 put spread to collect credit while betting $79 holds.
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $79.50. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (97%).
#3Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $81.00/$82.00 call spread
Sells 81/82 call spread to profit from limited upside.
Mgmt: Close if spot exceeds $80.64. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (67%).
!Bearish flow (-1 GEX/flow) could pressure spot below $80.
!Gamma flip at $79; break below may accelerate selling.
!Net premium negative; dealers are net short premium, adding to reversal risk.