base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Term structure shows low near-term (3.7%) but elevated put skew across expirations, reflecting persistent downside hedging.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+544.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$79.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 296,650 (1.1% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI of 296,650 contracts near $79 (1.1% below spot) creates gamma flip level at $79. Support 79.5, 79.0, 78.0.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$78.00 put spread
Sell July 2026 $79/$78 put spread to collect premium in low IV, backed by support and put wall.
Mgmt: Close if HYG breaks below $79.5; roll if pin risk shifts. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (67%).
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $79.00/$78.00 put wing and $81.00/$82.00 call wing
Sell July 2026 $79/$78 put and $81/$82 call wings, betting price stays near $80 max pain.
Mgmt: Adjust wings if price approaches $79 or $81; close if volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (67%).
!Bearish flow and high put volume suggest potential downside pressure.
!Low IV environment limits premium collected; consider smaller size.
!Max pain pinning may fail if spot breaks below $79 support.