HYG
iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETFClose $79.91EOD onlyThis page reflects HYG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.
View latest reportOutlook
Neutral-to-bearish with downside bias toward the gamma flip ~$79 and structural put floor $74-$75; Confidence: 8.0/10 (base). Primary supports: large put OI concentrated at $79/$77/$78, heavy negative GEX (-$2.4B) and bearish net premium (-$10.2M) — these drive dealer short-gamma and downside sensitivity; conflict: strong call GEX concentration at $81.00 (pin magnet) and max pain pinned at $80 across expiries producing two-way short-term anchoring.
Conflicts: Large call GEX +$325.2M at $81 and MP at $80 create short-term resistance and pinning that can blunt runs lower.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-2.4B
DEX: +204.4M shares
Gamma flip: ~$79 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 568,638 (0.9% below spot))
NTM gamma: Near-the-money negative gamma concentrated around $79 (gamma flip ~$79); if spot falls 2% (~$78.13) dealers will need to buy bonds/ETFs to hedge (short-gamma buying), amplifying downside; if spot rises 2% (~$81.31) dealers will sell to hedge calls but large GEX +$325.2M at $81 creates pin/resistance and may cap upside.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 10.3% — low absolute vol; HYG cheap relative to typical stressed environment, buying vol is expensive vs realized risk being low currently.
Term structure: Short-dated IV bump: 4/10 ATM 13.9% → 4/17 14.4% then drops 4/24 12.6%; a pronounced 5/8 spike to 21.4% then inconsistent across later expiries (e.g., 5/15 8.2%) — term structure is uneven with event-dated spikes (5/08, 8/21).
Skew: Cheap ATM near-dated IV (3d–17d 12–14%); relative IV rich pockets in 5/08 (21.4%) and long-dated puts in unusual prints — calendar/diagonal sells of 5/08 vs 6/18 (21.4% vs 8.3%) present vol-diff opportunities.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium -$10.2M (bearish); P/C Vol 3.33 and P/C OI 4.70 indicate heavy put buying and protective demand.
Directional prints: 7.7 call 79 ITM 2026-07-17 — HYG260717C00079000 — vol 2,227 vs OI 731 (3.0x) — buy or roll into long-term call interest (could be outright buys or spreads); long-dated call interest contrasts short-term put flow. 21.6 put 78.5 OTM 2026-04-10 — HYG260410P00078500 — vol 5,282 vs OI 2,112 (2.5x) — tactical short-dated put demand into 4/10 expiry, consistent with protective or speculative downside positioning.
Unusual: 22.4 put 75 OTM 2026-09-18 — HYG260918P00075000 — vol 26,060 OI 10,737 (2.4x) — large long-dated put accumulation (tail hedging or directional bets)
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Weak | Buy HYG shares outright at $79.72 | Negative GEX and heavy put demand — adverse to outright long exposure without protection. |
| Short stock | Moderate | Short HYG stock near $80.50 resistance (intraday tactical) | Dealer short-gamma could accelerate losses if spot gaps lower; require strict intraday stops. |
| Covered call | Moderate-Weak | Buy HYG + sell 2026-04-24 $81 call (short) | Caps upside; short call into pin at $81 risks assignment and gamma squeeze. |
| Cash-secured put / Put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-01 $77/$75 put spread | Gamma flip <$79 and larger sell-off to $75–74 increases loss; defined risk spread preferred to naked puts. |
| Long calls | Weak | Buy 2026-07-17 $79 call | Low IV but long-dated calls show odd IV (7.7%); expensive time decay relative to directionality and pinning. |
| Long puts / Bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-05-08 $80/$77 bear put spread | Higher IV on 5/08 (21.4%) increases cost but protects vs downside acceleration; use when directional conviction increases. |
| Iron condor | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-04-17 $78/$75 put side + $81/$83 call side (defined risk) | Negative GEX can fat-tail losses if spot breaks lower; width sizing and buying wings required. |
| Calendar / Diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-08 ATM (higher IV 21.4%) buy 2026-06-18 ATM (8.3%) — regular calendar | Vol differential large (~+13.1 vol-pt) favors selling near-term vol; watch IV spikes around 5/08 event. |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate | Buy 2026-07-17 $75 LEAP put protection + sell near-term calls (PMCC) | Long-dated protection costs but hedges structural tail; long premium exposure to IV moves. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.