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HOOD

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Close $105.71EOD only
Max Pain
$99.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.97
6.6% from close
Price Gap
-6.71
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.65
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects HOOD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
HOOD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings 36d out; bullish flow (call-heavy) & gamma pinning near $100-$110. 80% historical beat rate but high VIX & recent market weakness add risk. IV elevated ahead of event.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Combination of bullish flow and gamma pinning supports near-term stability, but significant put buying warns of downside hedging. Market stress (QQQ -3.3%) could amplify move.
🛡️Put buying at $95-$105 suggests downside protection despite bullish flow.
💹80% historical beat rate supports upside, but macro headwinds remain.
🔮Gamma pinning near $100 keeps spot anchored short-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$5.95 (5.8%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$9.15 (8.9%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$11.80 (11.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; short-dated IV elevated (market vol), longer-dated pricing earnings uncertainty. 3d IV ~74% for 6/26, 17d ~71% for 7/10.

Crush estimate: Moderate crush post-earnings; near-term IV already inflated by macro volatility, so crush may be muted.

Skew: Put skew elevated; recent market drop and bearish flow (unusual put buys) indicate downside demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate historically; implied moves (5.8%-11.4%) align with past typical swings.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias due to consistent earnings beats, but recent market environment may skew.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $97.30/$109.20; 1w $94.10/$112.40
2Max pain pins: $100 (2026-06-26); $90 (2026-07-02); $92 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying across near-term expirations: $95p (6/26, vol/OI 2.5), $104p (2.2), $103p (7/2, 3.1), $105p (11/20, 3.4). Also an OTM $200 call (4.3 vol/OI).

Hedging activity near support ($95-$104) suggests protection against downside; $200 call likely a long-shot spec. Net premium +$30.9M, PC vol ratio 0.56 (call-heavy volume) but puts dominate in unusual prints.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-31 $95.00 put + sell $110.00 call
Credit: $10.64-$13.01
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $13.01
BE: 81.99 / 123.01
Trigger: Close if stock breaks $95 or $110; manage gamma risk.
Highest premium; range-bound pinning and elevated IV favor short vol.
Outperforms: Sell $95 put & $110 call to collect rich IV premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00/$110.00 call spread
Debit: $3.85-$4.70
Max loss: $4.70
Max gain: $5.30
BE: $104.70
Trigger: Roll or close if stock falls below $100.
Bullish flow and 80% beat rate support upside; defined risk.
Outperforms: Buy $100/$110 call spread for limited bullish exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-31 $93.00 put + buy $110.00 call
Debit: $9.92-$12.13
Max loss: $12.13
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 80.87 / 122.13
Trigger: Take profit on IV crush or after earnings.
High IV and expected large move; cheaper than straddle.
Outperforms: Buy $93 put & $110 call to profit from breakout.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $95.00/$94.00 put wing and $105.00/$110.00 call wing
Credit: $2.32-$2.83
Max loss: $2.17
Max gain: $2.83
BE: 92.17 / 107.83
Range-bound around $100-$110 supported by gamma pinning and bullish flow; iron condor fits neutral-high premium environment.
Outperforms: Sell premium before earnings to capture elevated IV and crush, with defined wings to limit tail risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Market weakness (QQQ -3.3%) could exacerbate any bearish move.
!High VIX (19.5) implies wider expected moves; earnings miss could see outsized drop.
!Put skew and unusual put buying signal aggressive hedging; may indicate institutional caution.

What to Watch

?Max pain $100 (6/26) and $90 (7/2); EM guardrails $97.3/$109.2 (2d).
?Put delta from $95-$104 expirations; any break below $97 could trigger stop losses.
?Call OI wall $110-$130; need strong catalyst to overcome.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.